Why isn't the market going down?
- Thread starter MustPlayOptions
- Start date
Well sorry to see you got so upset over this instead of just asking a simple question.
The market got it wrong as the situation was much worse then expected. Remember the sharp sell off in AUGUST and the write downs. Most people thought that was just a shock and the initial write downs were the result and that was it. Check out the headlines back then and you can confirm the sentiment in SEPT and OCT. They were obviously wrong. Add in the fact people expected more rate cuts which fueled the initial rally and some decent earnings in the 3rd quarter. Also a revised jobs report led many to believe we would not hit a recession. When the truth came out the market sold off.
You assume that all future expectations are CORRECT. I know you don't think that. The market always tries to price in future expectations, but they are not always right. Just like we are not always right in our trading.
The bull market that began on October 2002 will last for decades
you are lucky to have any savings or assets that aren't owned by the bank.
I know that there's speculation that the sub-prime crisis may be ending but with gas prices as high as they are and the number of jobs being lost, why isn't the market turning down?
Before you flame please understand that I'm really curious. I'm thinking of getting completely out of the market and don't know if I should pull the trigger or not.
I don't see how it's not turning given that the future seems wrought with a weak dollar and high oil/gas prices and a weak job market. All that on top of the lingering damage from the sub-prime mess.
I feel like I've got to be missing something since the market seems to be hopeful.
Any insights are appreciated. I just don't want to see my savings fall 50% again like a few years ago.
Thanks,
MPO
I know that there's speculation that the sub-prime crisis may be ending but with gas prices as high as they are and the number of jobs being lost, why isn't the market turning down?
Before you flame please understand that I'm really curious. I'm thinking of getting completely out of the market and don't know if I should pull the trigger or not.
I don't see how it's not turning given that the future seems wrought with a weak dollar and high oil/gas prices and a weak job market. All that on top of the lingering damage from the sub-prime mess.
I feel like I've got to be missing something since the market seems to be hopeful.
Any insights are appreciated. I just don't want to see my savings fall 50% again like a few years ago.
Thanks,
MPO
If I get out completely I will try to find some kind of non-variable (i.e. not stock based) fixed income investment. Right now my money market is giving about 2% tax free but I'd rather having something fixed at 5-7% if possible. I.e. I'm shooting for Buffet's near-term goal.
One of the funds btw is a metals fund but it's still not a huge investment in commodities. I don't know anything about commodities though so wouldn't feel comfortable investing in them. I do have real estate and I wasn't including cash holdings so I am a little more diversified than all stock. Stocks are the bulk of my holding though so that's why I'm concerned.
The point someone made about investing vs trading is obviously a good one and to the point. These funds have obviously been an investment for me as I have only done minor tweaking over the last 2.5 years and held through all the volatility.
This just seems really different to me. Driving down the street you can see restaurants that were open 20 years closed now. Airlines are going bankrupt let and right which can only mean higher travel expenses and therefore higher business expenses. Loans are harder to get. There are a lot of new strip malls/shopping areas near me and none of them or filled or have had any new businesses open up in them for the last 6-9 months and I'm not even living in an area that was hit hard by the subprime crisis.
So far the only explanation that's making sense to me as a non-economist about the market is the sector thing. But that doesn't mean that it's not gonna hurt a lot. I'm leaning even more towards getting out and seeing if I can get a measly 5-7% and try to be happy with that...
One of the funds btw is a metals fund but it's still not a huge investment in commodities. I don't know anything about commodities though so wouldn't feel comfortable investing in them. I do have real estate and I wasn't including cash holdings so I am a little more diversified than all stock. Stocks are the bulk of my holding though so that's why I'm concerned.
The point someone made about investing vs trading is obviously a good one and to the point. These funds have obviously been an investment for me as I have only done minor tweaking over the last 2.5 years and held through all the volatility.
This just seems really different to me. Driving down the street you can see restaurants that were open 20 years closed now. Airlines are going bankrupt let and right which can only mean higher travel expenses and therefore higher business expenses. Loans are harder to get. There are a lot of new strip malls/shopping areas near me and none of them or filled or have had any new businesses open up in them for the last 6-9 months and I'm not even living in an area that was hit hard by the subprime crisis.
So far the only explanation that's making sense to me as a non-economist about the market is the sector thing. But that doesn't mean that it's not gonna hurt a lot. I'm leaning even more towards getting out and seeing if I can get a measly 5-7% and try to be happy with that...
