I think its the result of market cap weighted indexing. The Megacaps just snowball. SMCI will probably get pulled out of IWM and go into the Q's.
And Apple and NVDA have market cap dominance contests.
Why is TLT and IWM Diverging?
- Thread starter Sergio123
- Start date
I think its the result of market cap weighted indexing. The Megacaps just snowball. SMCI will probably get pulled out of IWM and go into the Q's.
And Apple and NVDA have market cap dominance contests.
Well said. Apple, NVDA and Microsoft are each bigger than all the Small Caps combined.
I think I see what Sergio is seeing and agree. The correlation between the Russel 2000 and Treasuries was from rate cuts and the uncertainty with rate cuts. I think this is because of small cap interest rate sensitivity and long bond sensitivity to interest rate uncertainty.
It is not much of a trading signal for me but interesting. If anything it makes me think TLT has overreacted but doesn't seem like a great short to me.
This.
I think longer term yields need to go higher in the long term and shorter term yields need to go lower in the short term - like a 25 to 50 basis cut at the most for this year.
But in the short term, I think that TLT will move up in accordance with expected rate cuts and IWM will move down in accordance with an expected economic recession.
But when there is an expected economic recession then there is also a higher expectation of rate cuts so they will move counter to each other for now.
I forgot I did this network correlation analysis in April of the futures market and you can see how the Russell is connected to the treasury futures. I will have to see if I can recreate it and if the edge weight has changed on new data that would back up what we think we are seeing.
I did some analysis and there was this interesting spike in mutual information between TLT and IWM last month that has gone back to zero
It is certainly there with various window sizes too but hard to really know what to make of middle period but it is cool to see a spike in October too. I also could be calculating all this completely wrong and this chart is nothing more than a random line.
It is certainly there with various window sizes too but hard to really know what to make of middle period but it is cool to see a spike in October too. I also could be calculating all this completely wrong and this chart is nothing more than a random line.
Maybe.
The divergence is not random tho. IWM going down is significant in this divergence. There was very little participation of small cap in this current bubble. And just massive single stock overweighting. And now...what little IWM participation we had is dropping off a cliff. And TLT just doesn't want to cooperate. The main stream media "barks for FOMC attention and all eyes" for the bubble buyers (get ready, get ready, for the next big rate cut show)..,.But the veteran trader's closer look shows that big money doesn't see any FOMC conviction or competence and is fleeing everything besides the very largest big cap tech. And is bracing for no rate cuts and then an unstable, uncertainty filled election and post election.
If you remember. The reason we are here in the first place is the "Fed incompetent hesitation" and getting behind on inflation. Now we are stuck with higher rates much longer and and a convoluted bubble of last resort.
But yes, as you said..the very very large cap tech and S&P index...staying kinda random and nothing too dramatic as the summer moves along...holding same pattern.
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