Why is TLT and IWM Diverging?
- Thread starter Sergio123
- Start date
If it's one sector I'm bullish on its IWM....talk of rate cuts and the possibilities of it happening and when it does should send this sector up. It has not kept up with any other indexes especially the dow spy and nasdaq.so I believe when the turn around comes it will play catch up. ...
10 yr dropping past week back to around 4.25 had me quite surprised that iwm was falling with it.
10 yr dropping past week back to around 4.25 had me quite surprised that iwm was falling with it.
Everything is correlated. They hold many regional banks. KRE has been going down with it.
Maybe HYG has better correlation. I will have to look at it.
IWM is loaded with so much crap.
Would rather own VO/MDY or VB if you just want small cap exposure
Would rather own VO/MDY or VB if you just want small cap exposure
when small cap doesn't participate in a bubble like this (particularly AI)...i keep my finger on the sell button at all times I am in a trade. And I hesitate on buying the Tech dip until very good conviction.
For me..its mainly a S&P long position and NVDA. Not my usual trading at all. My usual high conviction for strong trading is a good upward movement large cap tech and then steady upward movement in TLT (particularly where yield is right now) and then strong participation in tech small caps (IWM) following closely behind.
I also look for evidence of large cap tech acquisitions of tech small cap (particularly AI right now). There is nothing about this market that allows me to follow my usual trading. So again...just long S&P and NVDA and buying dips in these. The current talk and chatter of inclusions in DOW industrials and talk of DOW weights and Price weights makes me very very weary of any real growing conviction in this current market
For me..its mainly a S&P long position and NVDA. Not my usual trading at all. My usual high conviction for strong trading is a good upward movement large cap tech and then steady upward movement in TLT (particularly where yield is right now) and then strong participation in tech small caps (IWM) following closely behind.
I also look for evidence of large cap tech acquisitions of tech small cap (particularly AI right now). There is nothing about this market that allows me to follow my usual trading. So again...just long S&P and NVDA and buying dips in these. The current talk and chatter of inclusions in DOW industrials and talk of DOW weights and Price weights makes me very very weary of any real growing conviction in this current market
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It seems that since the SVB collapse both the KRE & IWM are broken. In the 3 months prior to the SVB collapse IWM was making a good run at breaking its 2021 high but since then it has been a dog with fleas.
Its a great trading vehicle especially to the downside. Its also extremely volatile. Whenver it goes up more 2% in a day I always buy puts on it. I think last week there was a day it opened up 2.5% and it ended up being like 1%. On Friday it was down almost 2% at one point and yet the QQQ was up most of the day (I'm sure ADBE earnings were likely the reason).
IJH is a far superior to IWM since the S&P 600 has fewer dogs than the Russell 2000. MDY is a much better SMID index to bet on but I doubt even the midcaps will outperform SPY or QQQ.
This is a strange market since its being led mainly by megacap tech companies fueled not by consumer demand but by enterprise capital spending. Tech, industrials & healthcare seem to be doing good but everything else seems like its late cycle. Of course the indusrials that are doing well are fueled by the IRA and the greening movement.
Its a great trading vehicle especially to the downside. Its also extremely volatile. Whenver it goes up more 2% in a day I always buy puts on it. I think last week there was a day it opened up 2.5% and it ended up being like 1%. On Friday it was down almost 2% at one point and yet the QQQ was up most of the day (I'm sure ADBE earnings were likely the reason).
IJH is a far superior to IWM since the S&P 600 has fewer dogs than the Russell 2000. MDY is a much better SMID index to bet on but I doubt even the midcaps will outperform SPY or QQQ.
This is a strange market since its being led mainly by megacap tech companies fueled not by consumer demand but by enterprise capital spending. Tech, industrials & healthcare seem to be doing good but everything else seems like its late cycle. Of course the indusrials that are doing well are fueled by the IRA and the greening movement.
I presume you are a swing trader, not a day trader.
So from a swing trading point of view,
IWM uptrend started in 2020.
IWM has been moving between 190 to 210 for many days/weeks already.
So it will continue to do so until the chart says otherwise.
TLT has been on a downtrend since 2020.
TLT has been moving around 85 to 100 for many days/weeks already.
So it will continue to do so until the chart says otherwise.
There is nothing unusual.
So from a swing trading point of view,
IWM uptrend started in 2020.
IWM has been moving between 190 to 210 for many days/weeks already.
So it will continue to do so until the chart says otherwise.
TLT has been on a downtrend since 2020.
TLT has been moving around 85 to 100 for many days/weeks already.
So it will continue to do so until the chart says otherwise.
There is nothing unusual.