Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

schizo said:
Maybe your definition of risk management is different from mine, which includes BLASH and SHABL (as alluded by the OP at the outset of this thread). Also I think you're taking all this too literally. Perhaps that's why you can't see it? The OBVIOUS won't reveal to you as one of those "a-ha!" moments, but more as a culmination of experience.
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It feels like a guessing game though and I usually guess wrong. How do I predict better?
 
I mean it’s a great idea in theory and I tried it for awhile but it wasn’t working for me. Maybe I went about it the wrong way though. Maybe I should more so work out what I can do differently so I can not be wrong
 
NotTheExpert said:
I mean it’s a great idea in theory and I tried it for awhile but it wasn’t working for me. Maybe I went about it the wrong way though. Maybe I should more so work out what I can do differently so I can not be wrong
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Only thing obvious at the moment is that we're going in circle among ourselves. Why don't you be a little more specific. Tell us about your trade.

What do you usually trade? Stocks, futures, options? What kind of trader are you? Day or swing trader? If you don't mind, post a chart of your very recent trade indicating where you got in and out, and where you initially thought it would go.
 
schizo said:
Only thing obvious at the moment is that we're going in circle among ourselves. Why don't you be a little more specific. Tell us about your trade.

What do you usually trade? Stocks, futures, options? What kind of trader are you? Day or swing trader? If you don't mind, post a chart of your very recent trade indicating where you got in and out, and where you initially thought it would go.
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I trade USDJPY due to the low spreads and large expansive moves. I over trade quite a bit because I keep hoping that I’ll “learn as I go” sort of approach. I don’t have a rock solid entry/exit system. I trade based on intuition. I use the 1 minute exclusively. I don’t trust traditional ideas and I’m trying to teach myself but maybe I’m not going about it the right way. I’ve written probably hundreds of pages of personal notes which don’t seem to mean anything except for memory recall. I’ve thought about executing the same thing over and over again but I haven’t tried that route. I’m a discretionary price action trader. I don’t have a standard RR that I use. I place a trade and hope to catch the trend. I don’t trade against the trend. I don’t have a trend following system except for viewing it as collective SMC, momentum shifts, and spikes. I believe momentum continues so I enter while price is running and I don’t wait for a pullback. I had some success with this… but not really. Unless it’s running for hundreds of pips, I’m getting stopped out. I’d be happy to share some of my trade ideas in here. I’m sure I’m probably doing things wrong (either psychology, methodology, or both). I essentially try to view where price is going and execute a trade as price is going somewhere.
 
I had a really cool idea today actually. I am using the dates on my live trading notes to plot various account statement periods for when I was most likely activating a particular strategy. Since I have so many trades and notes already, I plan to use some kind of indicator to plot my trades on a chart and reverse engineer my trades using some kind of data analytics and simple visual analysis
 
WOW, I am just now figuring this out. This is really cool! It’s actually doable. I don’t know what bubble I was in with thinking it wasn’t possible to plot them
 
NotTheExpert said:
I trade USDJPY due to the low spreads and large expansive moves.
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Well, I've been actively trading USD/JPY recently as well so this ain't anything new to me. The Asian session just started, why don't you tell me what you expect to happen based on this chart.

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NotTheExpert said:
WOW, I am just now figuring this out. This is really cool! It’s actually doable. I don’t know what bubble I was in with thinking it wasn’t possible to plot them
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That's good to know. But you need to come up with a working script or strategy that you can actually use in trading.
 
I feel like the answer is probably sell but to be honest, I would have bought right there due to the shift in momentum solely looking at that picture.

Edit: just looked at what happened and it looks like I would have been wrong xD

Edit: Maybe what I need to do is zoom out more. Due to not having much patience, I think sometimes my brain sees everything as a momentum shift. Sometimes my brain seems to interpret them correctly. Other times, it seems everything is a shift. I used to make “psychological” trade drawings for percentage of confidence I had of a certain chart action… maybe I should try that again.
 
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