Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

You have a belief about the market concept wrong, imo ironchef.
The market is not an artist.
The market is a machine.
Once you understand that which I did years ago, it becomes easier.
The machine kicks in and out of gear, going forward, backwards and disengages.
But the machine is at times 'overwhelmed' by emotional and erratic retail which causes the machine to disengage.
Sometimes its difficult to differentiate between retail and machine as imo blowoffs could be the deliberate attempts by machine to pop the market up or down to a) escape, b) enter c) reverse.

The machine is clever, tireless, focused, repetitive, predictable.
The machine operates by rules.
The machine is not emotional or artistic, but because the machine disengages, noobs have the wrong impression and jump to wrong conclusions as emotional retail trading takes over.

View attachment 326701

Can you see the machine?
Mick, I'm still trying to make sense out of this;
in my TradingView settings, the Open is different from yours...
Does it matter or do you see price as a continuüm?
BTCUSD_2024-01-25_10-29-16_76af9.png
 
Mick, I'm still trying to make sense out of this;
in my TradingView settings, the Open is different from yours...
Does it matter or do you see price as a continuüm?
View attachment 332446
Yup, I've too noticed a discrepancy between barcharts.com and finviz.com charts.
Barcharts only display 5 days per week on bitcoin, whilst finviz is 7 days per week.
Also I noticed daily volume on barchart.com is incorrect, they only display 4 days of volume.
I think Tradingview & Finviz charts are more accurate than barchart for bitcoin.

^BTCUSD_Barchart_Interactive_Chart_01_25_2024.png

Only 4 days per week on volume, bitcoin, barcharts.com
 
Yup, I've too noticed a discrepancy between barcharts.com and finviz.com charts.
Barcharts only display 5 days per week on bitcoin, whilst finviz is 7 days per week.
Also I noticed daily volume on barchart.com is incorrect, they only display 4 days of volume.
I think Tradingview & Finviz charts are more accurate than barchart for bitcoin.

View attachment 332448
Only 4 days per week on volume, bitcoin, barcharts.com
So the Daily Open is not a crucial benchmark for your principle...?
 
Can anyone give me advice on what I should be doing?

You're trying to reinvent the wheel without a base understanding of how it works/moves.

Why do you not trust traditional basic often repeated ideas? Is the distrust backed by data you yourself have collected & tested...or because you're listening to people on a forum where most think everything is bogus?

If you're going to trade on discretion you need to be able to identify when something that typically happens doesn't happen and make a quick decision on what to do next. To do that you need to know what typically happens. To do that you need a consistent benchmark to measure against.

You can build on information and ideas readily available, or you can try to do everything on your own from scratch. I'd recommend the former.
 
I’m trying to come up with a system by Backtesting a lot. I repeated the same strategy over and over but the results were not good. I even tried flipping it but it was still a bad strategy after doing that. Can anyone give me advice on what I should be doing?
Let me ask you another question: What makes you think you can predict?
 
Ok so I went through a lot of the OPs posts in other forums etc. I did that before but I had forgotten some things he mentioned. He spells it out plainly in other threads. To be honest, I’m sort of hanging onto his every word.
1. 95% of traders fail and it’s because of doing all the popular methods out there and not thinking for themselves. TA is not inherently good or bad but it needs to be understood why it happens. TA more so explains what already happened.
2. A signal should smack you in the face. You shouldn’t have to debate whether you’re seeing a signal. It should be clear as day.
3. You need to analyze your own account for data gathering purposes. Trading your own account is more valuable than loading to learn.
4. Gems DO exist. You just have to look for them (so now he’s saying that learning is good. Just don’t pay to learn). He’s saying it’s actually very much required to learn as much as you can about the FACTS. My guess is the facts pertain to how trends typically evolve around certain seasons and historically resounding events
5. Small losses all the time is bad (I experience this one). Regularly take profits and losses.
6. BLASH AND SHABL 90% of the time. Do the former 10% of the time.
7. Not sure if this was the OP but someone mentioned that narrow range bars proceed wide range bars and Vice versa. Considering price moves in this context most of the time, I’ve started to observe the daily to try to pinpoint what type of day it’s more likely to be. I’m seeing if that can help me with reversals AKA BLASH and SHABL.
8. Most traders don’t have an edge and all the risk management in the world will not save you without having an edge. (2nd post in this thread).

With that said, I feel even more confident that what I really need to do is keep trying my hardest to develop an edge. Something I can do more of is start studying the specific aspects of certain movements. I am finding that quite hard. I’ve considering using retracement measurements (not standard fibonnaci) to try to learn this better. It sounds quite hard actually. I also need to simply read more…. But what to read? That’s the question. I have to sacrifice time for one thing over another either way. I think gathering my own statistics through any means necessary is probably the best way.
 
In addition to that, I’m not even really sure where to get started with gathering my own data on trends. I guess I just need to start somewhere and hope that what I’m doing matters. I do think my experience might be counting for something but experience might be an illusion to some extent.
 
I guess experience shouldn’t be totally discredited. If the market is repeatable (which it seems that way), then I should be able to retain some of that information if price action is useful in any simple way
 
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