Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

[M4-1]

If one ever becomes consistently profitable at trading - that person will realise why he needs to figure it out himself.

Till then it will be apt for others to go through the entire thread of 700 posts rather than 7 line summary which does not quite do a justice to the thread.

i will jump in here..why.. because i can..

THERE is absolutely NO NEED to read thru the vast pages of this thread..or ANY thread for that matter..

there is..HOWEVER..a very important word that one needs to pick up on..and it is in the FIRST post of this thread..and it is..well..let's see who gets it right..i can give some clues if required..but i really don't think they are required

 

[Pelt]

"something that must exist or happen before something else can exist or happen"

 

[sandy_s]

This probably helps if you think about a sport.

A good boxer knows the rules of the game and can predict most of the time when the opponent is going to throw or fold. One obviously knows what happens to the boxer who fails to look for the “obvious” signs..

Same with the bridge player...though rules are different..

 

[Onra]

It's intriguing how the few "in the know",
keep repeating the same information with the same words...
If studying this for + 10 years didn't switch on the lightbulb;
why do you think anything will change without new clues?

A few posts back I asked:
So we're left with two options:
a. you know that price must reach a certain level (within a certain TF)
b. you know that has to come back to a certain level

Maybe someone would kindly answer the question...?

 

[M4-1]

It's intriguing how the few "in the know",
keep repeating the same information with the same words...
If studying this for + 10 years didn't switch on the lightbulb;
why do you think anything will change without new clues?

A few posts back I asked:
So we're left with two options:
a. you know that price must reach a certain level (within a certain TF)
b. you know that has to come back to a certain level

Maybe someone would kindly answer the question...?

certainly..but you probably won't like the answer

your first question..

you don't know anything about price "must" reach a certain level..where did you get that idea from !!!

2nd question..

same answer !!!

the reason the light bulb has not switched on..is simple..in that..in order for it to switch on you must first throw the switch !!!

do you fully understand what this means?

remember that things change.. reading about Mr Livermore or some other gobshite..is about as much use as reading about peter pan..total waste of time..

if you want to read and understand..then reread the 2 books you were given..and then you might be able to say that you have your fnger on the switch..

i sometimes wonder why most find it so hard to grasp the realities of trading..but..then i remember back when i was the biggest monkey of them all..and it took many years and many losses before the light truly shone bright..

comprendez vous ?

 

[M4-1]

i said it before..and i will now say it again..

look up the video of the man in the street with the big sign saying "free money here today"..

then you will realize the reality of trading

 

[Onra]

Now for the bit that gets really hairy scarry

What if I was to say, that, with a 95% probability, that RIG would hit $67 within a certain given timeframe.

We all know that a stock price can only do 3 things - but the time that it does those 3 things can vary, as time and price are not one and the same, how can they be so, it is just not possible:eek:

The big question to ask, is, how the hell can I determine where the price will be, within a certain time frame, and what are the odds of the price hitting that level?

I might have solved the RIG riddle this morning,
but partially
and it's totally different then everything I've read in these books..

 

[The Obvious]

I might have solved the RIG riddle this morning,
but partially
and it's totally different then everything I've read in these books..

I'd be careful getting the idea that price can be predicted with any certainty. That way of thinking can lead to overconfidence, excessive risk taking and ultimately the poorhouse.

Out of interest, what sort of trading do you want to do? Intra-day? Or holding a position for a few days? Or weeks?
What do you trade? Index futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, cryptos?
What sort of annual return, on your capital, are you aiming for? 10%, 20%, 30%, 50%, 100%?

 

[Onra]

I'd be careful getting the idea that price can be predicted with any certainty. That way of thinking can lead to overconfidence, excessive risk taking and ultimately the poorhouse.

Out of interest, what sort of trading do you want to do? Intra-day? Or holding a position for a few days? Or weeks?
What do you trade? Index futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, cryptos?
What sort of annual return, on your capital, are you aiming for? 10%, 20%, 30%, 50%, 100%?

Absolutely correct!
Everyone in the know that I've read or spoke privately, warned about "anything can happen"
But I'm intrigued by that 95% claim from nysestocks...

Once the Holy Grail is found, it appears you can trade anything;
even on 1 min. charts, but I think you have to keep an eye on the Higher TF's.

I like FX; mainly the majors (M4-1 doesn't like this )
A good entry might last 2 - 3 days...

(the RIG chart was a Higher TF trade)

 

[The Obvious]

But I'm intrigued by that 95% claim from nysestocks...

If anyone was able to consistently predict with that degree of accuracy, then they'd be very quickly richer than Warren Buffett.

Looking at a very crude long term chart of RIG, in early Apr 2009 it appeared to be trending up from a low in late Dec 2008. Odds were it might keep going up, which it did.