Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

Oh I do, I just don't do it well yet.

what i don't understand is why some people get married to a certain market or symbol..unless..of course the marriage is working out :)

i don't care who i marry..once it works..and as long as it works i will stay married..if it stops working i will be out the door like a shot !

is it perhaps that most have too high opinions of their partner..and think that my partner is "the only one for me" !

i am married to the MES now..if she does not behave herself then i will kick her out the door and get a new wife :)
 
A method that works can lose money on an individual trade because, of course, not every trade can be a winner. No method is 100%. But if you keep doing it, it will make money over time.

For it to be worth the effort, though, it has to be a superior method which beats the market by a very wide margin. Otherwise you might as well just put your money in an index tracker.

The post I found most illuminating in this thread was #853. Especially the reference to riskfreetrading's earlier post. IMHO, the order of 1-5 should be reversed if 1 is the most important. nysestocks' reply was very telling.


can you copy the relevant section here for discussion?
 
I had to go back and see and I remember that post (and the poster) from the time I actually was reading through this thread.

However, in a later post he says something to the effect of having re-read the thread and seeing how much he missed the first time around and how he had made some false assumptions.

That was kind of what I alluded to earlier as there been some guys in this thread who have claimed an eureka moment, only to later re-appear and seem just as puzzled as they once was.


that is common..same as looking at a chart and seeing the patterns reappearing over and over..and..the next time the pattern starts to develop it is time to act..just to discover that price quickly goes against you after entry..de ja vue :)

it is no wonder so many waste so many years.. yours truly included..but..you know what they say..

"better late..than never" :)
 
what i don't understand is why some people get married to a certain market or symbol..unless..of course the marriage is working out :)
Hey, I am no expert. In fact, I know next to nothing.:D

But, I do not think being married to a certain market/symbol is MY particular issue. As mentioned, I have access to quite a few volatile, liquid instruments that I can trade. This includes the micros.
 
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can you copy the relevant section here for discussion?

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/why-is-the-obvious-not-so-obvious.151802/page-86#post-2395593

I'm going to repost something that riskfreetrading posted quiet a few pages ago.

Posted by riskfreetrading on 04-08-09 05:38 AM:
Obvious but not obvious:
1. The root of success/failure is yourself.
2. Noise is your friend, and your enemy. Never fight your friend, but fight your enemy.
3. Do not seek opportunity in an instrument, but seek an instrument that has the opportunity.
4. Repetition can be a virtue
5. The best party to join is one where you have proof that eveyone is happy.

IMHO these were the biggest giveaway in the thread, especially no. 5.


nysestocks' reply:

Did I write some of that post, or are some more of the 99.99999999999999999999% going a bit strange:D
Well written, and factual!
 
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that is common..same as looking at a chart and seeing the patterns reappearing over and over..and..the next time the pattern starts to develop it is time to act..just to discover that price quickly goes against you after entry..de ja vue :)

But surely price is patterned - yes?

How else could we learn to recognize LR opportunities?

T= M

Time = Money.

Could mean many things. My investor buddy (who's admittedly done very, very well over the last 10 years when he first started out) always talks about how TIME in the market beats market timing. And surely this is true for 99 % of market participants.

But as this thread relates to short term trading if I'm not misunderstood, I assume T = M would mean that you need to learn to wait for the right TIME before pulling the trigger, i.e., a LR opportunity.

In my own trading, I only know too well that there are days where I 'run out of bullets' by either being too early or too late. The day may very well go UP as anticipated, but that doesn't help me if it first goes DOWN and I went long 'too early'.

You can go a long way in trading just by learning to not LOSE money and that's usually done when you execute in high risk areas, i.e., the middle of nowhere or near the end of a move.

By the way - why are you trading MES and not ES? You mentioned the risk being 1/10th, but surely that means the reward is 1/10th too. I don't see any valid reason for trading micros unless you're trading a very small account or just learning to trade.

Thanks. :)

PS: I'm just a casual reader in this thread, but maybe I should find the time to re-read it from start and take it more seriously.
 
Hey, I am no expert. In fact, I know next to nothing.:D

But, I do not think being married to a certain market/symbol is MY particular issue. As mentioned, I have access to quite a few volatile, liquid instruments that I can trade. This includes the micros.

like LF the post was general..no directed at you..there are many ways to trade..and many symbols to trade..but the best one will always be the one where you can keep the money you make.. after all..why trade unless you can keep it..you might as well go to Las Vegas and have a good time with your money :)
 
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/why-is-the-obvious-not-so-obvious.151802/page-86#post-2395593

Posted by riskfreetrading on 04-08-09 05:38 AM:
Obvious but not obvious:
1. The root of success/failure is yourself.
2. Noise is your friend, and your enemy. Never fight your friend, but fight your enemy.
3. Do not seek opportunity in an instrument, but seek an instrument that has the opportunity.
4. Repetition can be a virtue
5. The best party to join is one where you have proof that eveyone is happy.

IMHO these were the biggest giveaway in the thread, especially no. 5.


nysestocks' reply:

Did I write some of that post, or are some more of the 99.99999999999999999999% going a bit strange:D
Well written, and factual!

1. of course..this is obvious

2. not applicable..you must do what you must do in order the make use of the opportunity

3. of course..this is obvious

4. of course..this is obvious

5. not applicable..you must do what you must do in order the make use of the opportunity
 
But surely price is patterned - yes?

How else could we learn to recognize LR opportunities?



Time = Money.

Could mean many things. My investor buddy (who's admittedly done very, very well over the last 10 years when he first started out) always talks about how TIME in the market beats market timing. And surely this is true for 99 % of market participants.

But as this thread relates to short term trading if I'm not misunderstood, I assume T = M would mean that you need to learn to wait for the right TIME before pulling the trigger, i.e., a LR opportunity.

In my own trading, I only know too well that there are days where I 'run out of bullets' by either being too early or too late. The day may very well go UP as anticipated, but that doesn't help me if it first goes DOWN and I went long 'too early'.

You can go a long way in trading just by learning to not LOSE money and that's usually done when you execute in high risk areas, i.e., the middle of nowhere or near the end of a move.

By the way - why are you trading MES and not ES? You mentioned the risk being 1/10th, but surely that means the reward is 1/10th too. I don't see any valid reason for trading micros unless you're trading a very small account or just learning to trade.

Thanks. :)

PS: I'm just a casual reader in this thread, but maybe I should find the time to re-read it from start and take it more seriously.

to summarize a few questions in various posts..in no particular order...

1. funded contentment

2. no debts of any kind

3. frugality

4. regular income - work or pension

5. adequate savings

6. never put all your eggs in one basket

7. never take advice from anyone else unless you fully understand what the advice is and what the worst case scenario is

8. trading experience - intra day holding

9. trading experience - several days holding

10. LR + AmO + AdV

11. symbol nuisances

12. reality check - every trade can't be a winner..but.. you can win a certain $ amount with a certain amount of trades

13. no superstition :)

14. no wishing..hoping..or praying

15. profits are removed and put into cash once the value equal to your initial account value has been achieved

16. as RN used to say..Rinse..Repeat..Rinse..Repeat :)
 
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