Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

[Vindago]

imagine if you were building a house..and you went online to find the best tradesmen..soon you read thousands of posts by people who read all about carpentry and wood work..so much so that they were experts at working out angles and pitches..and could build an exquisite mansion in their head

who would you end up giving the job to..and WHY

Well, easy enough, I would actually look for someone who have actually built a few houses and whose customers are satisfied with his work. Why? isn't it obvious?

For trading is a bit harder as traders I can interact with are on forums and it is not that easy to have proof of their ability, so what I can do is chose to learn for myself even if I can still chose to take what make sense to me from the forums and discard all the rest...

 

[Onra]

One bar is just a bar. Compare ALL the information it is telling you to the bar before. I like bar nr 4,5,6,9 and the last one. Do you see what they tell you? I screen for them and am prepared when the market opens on what might happen.

Thanks!
So I think you're looking for confirmations of a "trend"; a green bar after a green bar etc.

* With the exception of #9, all bars didn't retrace more than halfway the body of the former.
* With the exception of #6, all bars where a least as long as the former.
So (after the facts) a good trend day.

But now....?!
"the shortest possible trend"....
No, still no clue where the next bar might open...( I'm only thinking of "retests")
(edit: weekopen: around the mid of the lower wick of the last bar)

 

[odlareg]

Thanks!
So I think you're looking for confirmations of a "trend"; a green bar after a green bar etc. This is after the fact, but yes I know this at EOD and am prepared.

* With the exception of #9, all bars didn't retrace more than halfway the body of the former.
* With the exception of #6, all bars where a least as long as the former.
So (after the facts) a good trend day. We cannot predict the future. Can you post another pic with same nr of bars with a US stock containing daily OHLC ? Forex has very much C=O, which does not help. And add shadows where you think they fit.
But now....?!
"the shortest possible trend"....
No, still no clue where the next bar might open...( I'm only thinking of "retests") It opens were it opens. This is a confirmation...... or not.
(edit: weekopen: around the mid of the lower wick of the last bar)[/QUOTE]

 

[Traderz]

Slippage, slippage, slippage the life blood of this racket. If you can figure that one out you'll have it made. It is often overlooked and seldom talked about. Could it be some entity prefers it that way? May go hand in hand with the massive amounts of misinformation out there, endless trails that lead nowhere ... well maybe to an empty account perhaps.

 

[Onra]

Can you post another pic with same nr of bars with a US stock containing daily OHLC ?
And add shadows where you think they fit.
It opens were it opens. This is a confirmation...... or not.

I picked Amazon; is that ok?
By shadows you mean important wicks?

 

[odlareg]

Shadows is the adaptions you made to the EUR/USD chart. Bit choppy chart, but ok for now.

 

[Onra]

Shadows is the adaptions you made to the EUR/USD chart. Bit choppy chart, but ok for now.

Annotated based on the EURUSD clues.
This might be a different story; the two red bars are inside bars and don't indicate a clear downtrend.
So maybe you like bars 5, 14 more, because they are "obvious"...

 

[odlareg]

#6 is ok. However no money to be made on #7, as #7 does not confirm. #8 and #13 not ok. You wrote it yourself why. Two of the 4 variables do not align with the previous bar. #15 and #16 are ok. #15 confirms #14. #16 confirms #15.

You mention "don't indicate a clear downtrend". If you are familiar with "Breaking Bad" then you know "the meth" should be as clear as possible to qualify as outstanding. How to get the clear trend?

 

[Onra]

So we're looking for a confirmation of a trend...
(btw I'm not too familiar with stock-charts and "Breaking Bad")

Uptrend:
1. open above the prior close (and preferably above the prior high)
2. retrace stalls at the height or close of the prior bar (small lower wick)

The best I can think of:
if 1; go long with stop around 2...?!

 

[odlareg]

Uptrend:
1. open above the prior close (and preferably above the prior high) Concerning the Open, what about: open above prior open?
2. retrace stalls at the height or close of the prior bar (small lower wick) Do not worry about this for now.

Now what about HLC?

The best I can think of:
if 1; go long with stop around 2...?! This too is for later. Step by step.