Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

[Onra]

Vindago,

If you pick a trade with "acceptable confidence", you're basically making a prediction about price movement... (#1)

We all know that the hard part is to accept if you're wrong
or, if you're right, you don't get shaken out .

Have you tried something new?
I focused on longer term trades and it helped me to have more patience
and to get a better feel of what's happening in the higher timeframes.

As for the thread, you're right; we want more chart-riddles and less poetry about bees!

Best of luck to you!

 

[odlareg]

So VG,

A little riddle: based upon daily OHLC. Can you define the shortest possible trend?

GO

 

[Onra]

I would think some sort of retest of the former low or high (whichever is nearest to the close)...

 

[odlareg]

Brave try OA, but think again. A retest is a stand still, not a continuation in some direction, so no trend. I did not mention HL, but OHLC.

GO

 

[MrScalper]

if you keep doing the same thing..then.. you can expect the same results..ALL else being equal of course!!

do not think you are alone VO..most are exactly the same..but most won't admit it of course

a test to see if you are close..put away all your books on trading and investing..keep them to remind you how silly you really were..and the most important bit..delete every pdf you have ever downloaded about trading and investing..except ONE..and you know the ONE i am talking about..as it is the only book you will ever need for reference..read it 100 times if you must..it has everything you will ever need to know about sensible investing and trading

one important point..all markets are not the same..so..if you are trying to make a silk purse out of a sow's ear.. you will be waiting a long long time

 

[MrScalper]

So VG,

A little riddle: based upon daily OHLC. Can you define the shortest possible trend?

GO

if you mean go by text book stuff GO..then..the odds of making anything worth talking about are very slim

the longer time you have your money at risk..the more you can make..or..the more you can lose

if..you are silly enough to hold on to losing positions..hoping and praying that it might come back..then..you are of course just a fool..and fools and their money are very easily parted

also..even if you ride a big wave..and have loads of paper profit..not worth a damn if you are a fool

it is very easy for those who use OPM..for..they win regardless..and they sit back and laugh at all the fools who talk ridiculous rubbish about nothing..just go to the home page and have a quick look

 

[Vindago]

Well, OG tricky question, as I first would need to define what makes a trend and based on that definition you would have your answer.

so let's say that a trend is generally seen as a series of OLHC candles with H and L progressively higher (up trend) or lower (down trend). Now, however all trends generally have one thing in common, which is that of having pullbacks. So for me the shortest trend on daily OLHC is from the point price move out of previous range till the first pullback, provided that price start moving again in the previous direction after the pullback is done. As you see it is all very general as if it was possible to define things scientifically in trading than all I wrote in my previous message would not be true...

 

[Vindago]

if you keep doing the same thing..then.. you can expect the same results..ALL else being equal of course!!

do not think you are alone VO..most are exactly the same..but most won't admit it of course

a test to see if you are close..put away all your books on trading and investing..keep them to remind you how silly you really were..and the most important bit..delete every pdf you have ever downloaded about trading and investing..except ONE..and you know the ONE i am talking about..as it is the only book you will ever need for reference..read it 100 times if you must..it has everything you will ever need to know about sensible investing and trading

one important point..all markets are not the same..so..if you are trying to make a silk purse out of a sow's ear.. you will be waiting a long long time

Thanks MS, I know I am not alone, actually I suspect most people on this forum are in a similar boat. However, and that is exactly my point, I am trying to do things differently from the past, more than that, I am trying to think differently and to get used to a different way of thinking as the old way of thinking while it worked at times at other times has been really dangerous.

So now I am trying to accept the fact that I will never be able to predict the future no matter how many hours I spend in front of the monitor, no matter how good I become in reading price, the surprise move will always come unexpected...

I think I know the direction I need to go, I have known for quite some time but did not like it as it did not satisfy my ego, so now it is time to move on and get used to think differently and do things differently, only time will tell...

 

[odlareg]

Well, OG tricky question, as I first would need to define what makes a trend and based on that definition you would have your answer.

so let's say that a trend is generally seen as a series of OLHC candles with H and L progressively higher (up trend) or lower (down trend). Now, however all trends generally have one thing in common, which is that of having pullbacks. So for me the shortest trend on daily OLHC is from the point price move out of previous range till the first pullback, provided that price start moving again in the previous direction after the pullback is done. As you see it is all very general as if it was possible to define things scientifically in trading than all I wrote in my previous message would not be true...

VO,
Of course I do not care for the answer for myself, but it is my wish you will find the answer and are not clueless when morning volatility starts.

Concerning pullbacks, they carry the same riddle/answer, just in a minor time scale. So it is best to forget about them for now, because most of them lack volatility - which as we all know is a great advantage to reduce the time in market/money at risk.

Your statement: "provided that price start moving again in the previous direction" is a step in the right direction to solve the riddle. Now think about price, twice. Find the stairways to heaven.

GO

 

[SkyChef]

OG,

Daily OHLC shortest possible trend? Last price is close. Next possible price would be the opening of the next day so there you are, last close to next open.