Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?
- Thread starter nysestocks
- Start date
I didn't compare. I said the shortest trend is from last close to next open. And what is a trend btw? Isn't it dy/dt from t0 to t1? I don't think we are on the same page so I'll pass.
You get close with t0 to t1. But what to compare?
using just 1 chart can be successful..but..it all depends on how much you have..how much you can afford to lose per trade..and how good you are at fighting greed
if you have deep pockets..like the market makers..then you can afford to let price run against you for a certain amount of time.. however..they also get caught out when the SHTF..
if you look at the ES volume..then compare it to the OI..what do you think you will find!
you can make loads of money trading..but..you can also lose loads of money..and..losses are always much quicker than gains.. for obvious reasons
so..it comes down to..amount of risk capital available..understanding the best market to trade in relation to how much you can afford to lose..then..the easy bit..operating a tested and proven methodology that will yield positive results with a set number of trades..over a given time frame
forget about making consistent money with a few trades..it will never work..as..for anything to work..you must AVERAGE it out..no other way..no matter what banana eating monkey tells you otherwise
"you can NOT make a silk purse out of a sow's ear"
no matter how hard you try !!!!!
Odlareg;
Just to make sure; we're talking about a bar-only approach,
so no trendlines, indicators etc.?!
Do I focus only on the last bar to extract possible future information
or do we need to see it in context with what happened?
One bar is just a bar. Compare ALL the information it is telling you to the bar before. I like bar nr 4,5,6,9 and the last one. Do you see what they tell you? I screen for them and am prepared when the market opens on what might happen.
using just 1 chart can be successful..but..it all depends on how much you have..how much you can afford to lose per trade..and how good you are at fighting greed
if you have deep pockets..like the market makers..then you can afford to let price run against you for a certain amount of time.. however..they also get caught out when the SHTF..
if you look at the ES volume..then compare it to the OI..what do you think you will find!
you can make loads of money trading..but..you can also lose loads of money..and..losses are always much quicker than gains.. for obvious reasons
so..it comes down to..amount of risk capital available..understanding the best market to trade in relation to how much you can afford to lose..then..the easy bit..operating a tested and proven methodology that will yield positive results with a set number of trades..over a given time frame
forget about making consistent money with a few trades..it will never work..as..for anything to work..you must AVERAGE it out..no other way..no matter what banana eating monkey tells you otherwise
"you can NOT make a silk purse out of a sow's ear"
no matter how hard you try !!!!!
I totally agree with you, especially on the last sentence, you can only get so good in getting the entry right but you will always have losers, the trick is to have more winner or bigger wins than losers or losses and over a relatively high number of trades you will make money.
I see this now, I even proved it to myself collecting some data about my trades (entry, exit, low and high for trade duration, H and L over 30min, 1h etc. And I saw that if I could get detached from the result of the single trade (hance accept small losers as part of the cost of doing business) I would make money rather consistently over a reasonably large sample of trades.
so much time spent looking for perfection when in fact not only it is not required but it does not even exist
imagine if you were building a house..and you went online to find the best tradesmen..soon you read thousands of posts by people who read all about carpentry and wood work..so much so that they were experts at working out angles and pitches..and could build an exquisite mansion in their head
who would you end up giving the job to..and WHY
who would you end up giving the job to..and WHY