Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?
- Thread starter nysestocks
- Start date
Some traders only do BHASH and SLABL but no matter.
A good starting point, for discovering what does work, would appear to be point 3.
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/why-is-the-obvious-not-so-obvious.151802/page-66#post-2390698
Just to get to thinking...
It was mentioned earlier that one of the issues is that people try to 'apply rules to random events.' This could be why the results are random/inconsistent? Supposedly it is a game without any rules?
To your topic, I think that would be the idea as to WHY the inconsistency in mainstream trading exists?
On a slightly different note, but somewhat related... One of the overarching themes of this thread has been the 'no experts' theme, and that the game is structured such that it is not possible to have any experts. This could also be a part of the issue with the inconsistency, that we are applying methods to become 'EXPERTS' at the game?
This makes me wonder about 'the box?' Ok, so the box isn't necessarily used to make a 'prediction,' but instead to find a way to create a series of 'bets?' Possibly similar to the way the 'bets' were being placed in THIS example? Possibly even quite literally along the diagonals within the box, similarly to the way they were placed on the table(note the section that describes this)?
With all that and related to your post ED, my question would be, what makes 'the box' different than any other type of mainstream TA tool?
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Now if you move on two more posts from the same author you will read: If you take breakout trades the majority of the time, then like the roulette table, the odds will not be in your favor - why, because they fade a lot of the time, run stops, and also just do it because they can!
I dislike the continuous search for these boxes, as they change all the time, but probably you are up to another box?
Timing entries is a crucial part of trading correctly, more so in daytrading as opposed to swing or position. If you buy at a DT or sell at a DB on the ES or NQ, then the odds of you getting stopped out (depending on you tick amount for stop of course) are far higher than you might think. If you sell at a DT and buy at a DB, the odds of you making your target are far higher, providing your target is not too many ticks. The problem is, in order to get your timing correct (should I buy or sell at the DT or DB) you need to take other factors into consideration, such as momentum leading into the DT or DB, time of day, time since last DT or DB, and a few other little things that when all added together will help you improve on your entries. A good entry is no good unless you make use of it, so, unless you are able and willing to act and react to price movements, then you are really just wasting your time trading, especially daytrading.
If I remember correctly from reading some of the posts, there was a saying "use the Box to save your $ox", or something like that. This is very true, for if you pay too much attention to things that do not really matter, then you will indeed miss the boat many times over. When trading, and especially daytrading, you must pay full attention to the immediate situation, but also be aware of major levels on the higher timeframes, with some being far more important than others, for obvious reasons.
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BLASH
SHABL
BLRABL
SHRABH
BHASH
SLABL
BHRABL
SLRABH
"THE SECRET OF THE GAMBONI
The secret of the Gamboni is the secret of how to survive in the nancial markets. Understand it … really understand it … and you are on your way to success as a trader, speculator, or investor. So, here it is. Joe was a card player, a good one. He was so good, in fact, that he had to move from city to city and nd games where he wasn’t known in order to play for high stakes. One afternoon, in a bar in the suburbs of Chicago, he’s shooting the breeze with the bartender and asks, “Say, where can I nd a good card game around here?” “What kind of stakes are you talking about?”
“Big,” Joe says, “the biggest game you know about.”
“Well now, I hear there’s a game out in the farm country. It’s a bit of a drive, but these particular farmers play for big money. Let me make a call and see if it’s OK.”
So the bartender makes the call, and then gives Joe directions to the game.
That evening, after a long drive, Joe pulls up to this barn in the middle of nowhere. Tentatively, he walks inside, tiptoeing around the fetid piles on the oor. At the back of the barn, he spots a partially open door, with light and smoke pouring through the opening. The familiar rush of anticipation and energy sweeps through him as he enters the room and introduces himself.
Farmers in overalls sit around the table, chewing cigars and pufng their pipes. In a quick glance, Joe estimates the current pot to be about $40,000 - perfect. So he sits down. “Ante up,” says the farmer holding the deck of cards. And Joe begins to play.
About an hour later, Joe is holding is own. He is about even when he draws three aces and two queens - a full house. With a large pot already on the table, he raises $15,000. The next two guys fold, but the leather-faced farmer across the table calls him and raises another $15,000, without so much as batting an eye. Joe, certain that the guy us blufng, calls the bet and lays down his aces-high full house. The farmer lays down junk: three clubs and two diamonds of mixed numbered cards. Joe, suppressing a smile, starts to rake in the pot.
“Wait just a darn minute,” says the farmer, a stern and reprimanding tone in his voice.
2Whattaya mean, wait a minute,” says Joe, “you got nothin.”
“Take a look at the sign over your right shoulder,” smiles the farmer.
Joe looks:
THREE CLUBS AND TWO DIAMONDS
CONSTITUTE A GAMBONI, THE TOP WINNING HAND IN THIS ESTABLISHMENT.
Joe is really angry, but after all, rules are rules, so he continues to play with what is left of his holdings. About an hour later, he draws three clubs and two diamonds … a Gamboni! He bets everything, and on the nal round of betting with the same leather-faced farmer, he has to throw in his solid gold Rolex to make the call. The farmer turns over his cards, a queen-high spade ush. Joe turns over his Gamboni and starts to rake in the pot.
“Hold it there, fella,” says the farmer, his grin cutting deep lines in his cheeks.
“But I got a Gamboni!” cries an exasperated Joe.
“Sure ‘enough, but look at the sign over there,” and he points over Joe’s left shoulder. Joe looks:
ONLY ONE GAMBONI WILL BE PERMITTED PER NIGHT IN THIS ESTABLISHMENT.
Joe, broke but thankful for the invention of credit cards, leaves the barn with dung on his shoes, and the leather-faced farmer drives his tractor home feeling the weight of a solid gold Rolex on his wrist.
So the secret of the Gamboni is this: if you want to win, you’ve got to know the rules; and also, you can’t win if you’re not at the table.”
Any gambler will tell you that to make money you need to keep the odds in your favour, and the same is true in trading, there are no certainties, only probabilities. To win, you need to speculate when the odds are in your favour, so succeed you need to accurately predict and play the odds. You need to know how to place your bets to maximise your prots and keep your losses small. To do this you need a disciplined trading plan. The following rules, if followed, will help you keep the odds in your favour, know and follow the rules and you will succeed. If you break any of the rules you will end up losing money.
“Luck, continued the gambler reectively, is a might queer thing. All you know about it is it’s bound to change, and it’s nding out when it’s going to change that makes you.” Berte Harte - The Outcasts Of Poker Flat
We stated earlier that when we trade we confront an unstructured environment and, to operate effectively, we need to create a structure for ourselves. The reason we need rules is we need to combat the destructive emotions referred to earlier and give us discipline. Assuming you have educated yourself and developed a trading method, you will now need to execute it with condence, entering and exiting trades in a consistent manner. Without rules your emotions will dictate your decisions and lead you to nancial disaster."
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