Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

More musings...

What 'the obvious' is NOT, or phrases that are unimportant(to the thread topic itself):
  • Risk Management
  • Position Sizing
  • Capital Requirements
  • Indicators
  • Business Basics
  • Psychology
  • "Manipulation"
  • Level II
  • T&S
  • $PREM

What "the obvious" could be, or somehow related to that prerequisite:
  • Whatever enables you to BLASH(SHABL/BHASH/SLABL) with low risk
  • Changing your chart perspective to do what the majority will not
  • Low vs. High Risk Entries (locations where it takes less to invalidate a trade)
  • "P/L" somehow?
  • Knowing who the competition is, or the who/what the other participants/players are, and how they transact? What does this look like on a chart?
  • Angles of price movement or those different participants
 
Pelt said:
More musings...

What 'the obvious' is NOT, or phrases that are unimportant(to the thread topic itself):
  • Risk Management (Required)
  • Position Sizing (Required - Part of risk management)
  • Capital Requirements (Required)
  • Indicators (Not Required)
  • Business Basics (Not Required)
  • Psychology (Required to a degree)
  • "Manipulation" (Not Required)
  • Level II (Not Required)
  • T&S (Not Required)
  • $PREM (Not Required)

What "the obvious" could be (for most), or somehow related to that prerequisite:
  • Whatever enables you to BLASH(SHABL/BHASH/SLABL) with low risk (Subjective)
  • Changing your chart perspective to do what the majority will not (Subjective)
  • Low vs. High Risk Entries (locations where it takes less to invalidate a trade) (Subjective)
  • "P/L" somehow? (The ultimate end result of all your knowledge and experience)
  • Knowing who the competition is, or the who/what the other participants/players are, and how they transact? What does this look like on a chart? (Subjective)
  • Angles of price movement or those different participants (Subjective)
More...

It is hard to try and explain things to someone that has not had the same life experiences as yourself, which is why old people are far more wiser and care less about what others think and do. Why are some older people more wise than other older people?
I think the answer is in the title!
 
Nysestocks concept of why the obvious is not so obvious has been a concept that has stayed in the back of my mind for the past 4 years. I have done the puzzles, read the books"Boyd", turned my computer screens sideways, looked into swarm theory, Meditated my mind into lateral ways of thought and on and on and on. I became quite infatuated over it (to the point i didnt see sunlight for over 2 months: this was a few years back). Every system or trading ideology i have tried and looked at i have kept his teachings in mind. When I thought i was getting closer i was only drifting further.

I managed to find a style of trading that suited my beliefs (i listened and paid an expert allot of money to teach me) : algo trading, it works, its good and i am able to bring in up to 30% CAGR. Is it the obvious Nysestocks talks about; NO but it still pays me. This happened about a year ago. But still not really satisfied i continued searching for what the obvious may be.

Today i was just watching VXX and AUDUSD (no indicators just price action and flicking through MTFA) And just out of nowhere it hit me like a brick to the face. I second guessed it, looked at it and am currently in a state of awe. Firstly i don't know exactly if this is it. But if it is, it is so blatantly obvious i just am in a little bit of shock atm. I am going to do some testing on it and see if its what i believe to be the obvious.

If it is true which i am 99% certain (because so far my entries have all been 100% profitable: not making dollars but pennies) 100 pennies make a dollar ;). I also understand why not many tell when they do find it. Honestly i would not tell, but i would help point to those who are willing to venture on this journey. (4 years of searching it took me).

Some influences to my journey

- Its all in the entry.
- It is a lateral mindset.
- There is a tale to the squiggly little worm.
- What do people do when a stock goes up ?
- What do people do when a stock goes down ?
- What do people do when a stock goes up and down ?
 
What does it mean to go up AND down... and not just up OR down? Just different bar intervals of the same chart?

If price is just a number on a chart, how can it go up AND down?

But I guess when it does go up AND down, that must mean that you buy AND sell it?
 
I like seeing this thread get new posts every once in a while. I just went and read all of nyse's posts here. Before I only ever read pieces. I'm not 100% sure the obvious for me is the same as the obvious for him. But I've definitely come to believe that there is a similar key insight that almost all very successful traders I've corresponded with eventually come across and incorporate, whether they consciously realize it or not.

I disagree with nyse, in that I think even if it was posted and explained, people wouldn't listen. One thing I agree with, is that for some reason the obvious goes against the vast majority of normal human behavior. Maybe 1-2 years ago, jack hershey, amidst the details of the rest of his system, told me the obvious. But I didn't realize it's significance at the time. I even parroted it to other people I was working with, and then went back to kind of ignoring it.

Since then, I've started to notice just about every systematically successful trader is doing the obvious in some way, shape, or form. It might look slightly different each time, but the obvious seems to be a core concept that makes all the difference in many successful systems. I look at a lot of traders on these boards, and although some might come under heavy skepticism, you can tell by the way they talk whether they have learned the obvious. And if they did I'm pretty comfortable believing they are in fact successful.

For some reason the obvious isn't just a piece of information. It is something that you have to be ready for in order to truly know. And I realize how abstract, useless, or obfuscating that can come across as. But in the same token I think it's kind of fun to talk about it without ever explicitly naming it. Who knows, maybe for each trader far enough down the path to think about the obvious, the obvious is actually something different for each of them! I used to wonder when I was a kid, what if what I saw as blue was actually green to someone else, and we both just called it purple.

For the sake of the game, here are some hints I'll offer without trying to be too explicit.

Re-read recent post by dontrader. Very likely he is onto a big part of the obvious.

High win-rates. nyse said 7-3 w/l I think? Try to consider that as the minimum when you're studying the obvious.

Also, 100 pennies make a dollar is spot on, that is a great one.

"Profit a little, profit a lot."

"Decide to stop losing"

what if a stock goes up and [then] down?

buy it and then sell it
 
If you trade long enough, you will more than likely try out most of the common approaches that most others also try. The reason is simple, being that the information is readily available and put forward in a manner that makes you think that it is worth spending time and money on. This will be a major mistake for most who try, as it will do nothing but keep you going round in circles chasing that ever elusive "edge". I have an inclination that recent discussions are currently focusing on what is called "measured moves", or "MM's" for short. Measured moves are really no different to other common approaches like Fib Retracements, in that they "will work some of the time, but not all of the time". If you want to predict the future when trading, then you really are just wasting your time, especially if you are holding positions for any length of time. Daytrading does offer some sense of "reasoning" to "short term price prediction", but like all other things in life, unless you are fully aware of the most important factors that affect short term price movements, then your palm reading skills will be mediocre at best. The obvious is not so obvious for valid reasons, so maybe the best way is to concentrate on working out what the valid reasons are. Sounds obvious to me.
 
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