There is one major factor that might negate this analysis, and it has to do with time, as time is very important when it comes to directional analysis, after all, Gann was no fool, but I am not talking about Gann methods, I am talking about daily movements!
So, in relation to your statement VO, yes, you are right to take range into consideration, as how far price moves in a day, is of course, very important, and, how many days it takes to move a certain amount, can, be even more important.
When you look at a chart, you must not look at it as most do, for if you do, you will only see what most see!
So, with respect to time, there is a danger of a quick reversal here, but as usual, we will never know for sure, and again, we should be ready, so that if does happen we can act, and say, well yes, we had identified a high probability upside price, but time has reduced that probability by about 50%, so all we can do is wait and see, and be prepared.
Of course, I forget to mention, the smaller time frame analysis is used for shorter term trades, and these take preference over the higher time frame analysis, so, what ever way it goes, by using the smaller time frames to trade you are keeping on the right side of the market, and the higher timeframes show you what might just be around the corner, so if it happens, you are not surprised.
This is very clear to me, and if it is not clear to you, then you obviously do not think like me!
It will be interesting to see what actually happens next.
J_S