Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

[J_Smith]

Hmmm, I will have to think about this as I do not see anything obvious.

I mean the only thing I see with 1939.25 (the level to watch now) is that it is the high of the fist daily pullback candle on the way down, the one on the left of the pullback high at 1949...

VO, as we all know, there are many ways to trade, and with correct risk management one can be as good as the other.

I will leave you think about it, but it is a concept we will be trying out with live trades in the TFF private thread, as with proper risk management, it is as good, if not better, than most methods.

It is best used on the shorter time frames, as per mention of auto traders, but we will also be using it on the daily, as per the ES posts above.

Either way, if we do not take the trades then it is of no use, hence I just done the ES put in case the ES does that quick reversal. Max risk is capped, and actual risk will be reviewed when market reopens on Sunday evening.

J_S

 

[Redneck]

Thanks RN. I’ve been trading since the late 90s. I’ve lost money all the way until 2013 (overall negative pnl). I started following this thread in 2010 and thanks to people posting to this thread I finally figured out what I needed to know to make money. It took about another few years before I was able to make money from that. I trade mainly ES futures and futures options nowadays.

Hope I'm able to contribute a little and help out if I can. (plus learn more myself )

It mind boggling how long..., and how much effort - it takes to retrain one's head

Contribute away Sir - many..., many ways to skin this ole cat

Good Weekend All

RN

 

[colcan]

It mind boggling how long..., and how much effort - it takes to retrain one's head

Contribute away Sir - many..., many ways to skin this ole cat

Good Weekend All

RN

I agree.. the education system did a good one on me. Have a good weekend RN!

 

[Simples]

Why did a moderator have to edit your post?
J_S

I haven't asked. I guess maybe because of the link and the fact I'm entirely new to ET. I don't think any content was actually changed, as far as I know.

What could be missing from this chart to show that 1888.25 is the one to watch?

I don't usually view ES, so not sure where to get good free charts, so would need to guess.
However, your SPX post confirmed it. So I'll take a risk-free guess:
Just as you can turn a pricechart on its head to bypass lifetimes of evolution and a lifetime of experience, you can take "volumebars" and rotate them 90 degrees. I could explain more in depth about valleys and peaks, but maybe that can be provided through some partial explanation and more riddles?

What I can say is that a trained eye can see these levels just from the candlestick bars, but it helps to incorporate volume as well. You can gain many perspectives on the market using these levels combined with the most current price action.

It's puzzling how many questions there are in this thread, and so few answers. So it is with the market.

Example below, should I buy now, or wait 5 min and then buy?

Again ES, which is not my forte. Judging from the cluster above price, I guess one could use the middle there as a target for a long, or more preferably, for direction according to this perspective. As for waiting 5 mins, why not buy on break, @1895 (a bit aggressive)? But waiting 5 minutes in time and not price might mean missing the potential move.

If someone said 1950 is now on the cards, what would make someone come to that conclusion?

Is it closer to 1940 on SPX daily 6-months chart on BigCharts.com? Seems we've arrived there now btw. Same as above, bulge.

My guess from your call at this level and about Gann/time, is that you do the opposite of fading strong moves at this level?

I remember reading forum comment mentioning this particular method of analysis and dismissing it as bollocks, in my very first year of investigation.

IF I'm right, this is strong indication that a clear mind can clarify any chaos!
If not, I haven't really lost anything of value.

 

[J_Smith]

I haven't asked. I guess maybe because of the link and the fact I'm entirely new to ET. I don't think any content was actually changed, as far as I know.



I don't usually view ES, so not sure where to get good free charts, so would need to guess.
However, your SPX post confirmed it. So I'll take a risk-free guess:
Just as you can turn a chart on its head to bypass lifetimes of evolution and a lifetime of experience, you can take "volumebars" and rotate them 90 degrees. I could explain more in depth about valleys and peaks, but maybe that can be provided through some partial explanation and more riddles?

What I can say is that a trained eye can see these levels just from the candlestick bars, but it helps to incorporate volume as well. You can gain many perspectives on the market using these levels combined with the most current price action.

It's puzzling how many questions there are in this thread, and so few answers. So it is with the market.



Again ES, which is not my forte. Judging from the cluster above price, I guess one could use the middle there as a target for a long, or more preferably, for direction according to this perspective. As for waiting 5 mins, why not buy on break, @1895 (a bit aggressive)? But waiting 5 minutes in time and not price might mean missing the potential move.



Is it closer to 1940 on SPX daily 6-months chart on BigCharts.com? Seems we've arrived there now btw. Same as above, bulge.

My guess from your call at this level and about Gann/time, is that you do the opposite of fading strong moves at this level?

I remember reading forum comment mentioning this particular method of analysis and dismissing it as bollocks, in my very first year of investigation.

IF I'm right, this is strong indication that a clear mind can clarify any chaos!
If not, I haven't really lost anything of value.

You are indeed a dark horse SS, and I hope you don't mind me calling you SS

How did you know it was volume related, for, very few would have gotten the correct answer!

In relation to ES levels, well, you know that all we can do is anticipate, and, the key to making money is not in the anticipation, but in the resulting actions that we take in relation to same.

Again, you appear to have that one sussed also, but you failed to mention it?

Is it because of what I posted afterwards, or something else?

Gann is irrelevant, as that is a different ball game entirely, and my only reference to him was in relation to how important time is when you look at a chart, not just levels.

In summary, I can tell right away that you know something about what you speak, as I am very good at reading people, and the first post nearly always tells all

J_S

 

[J_Smith]

Should the ES decline when market reopens, the target level to close my long put is 1900.00

This is based on the same simple analysis as the daily ES chart.

J_S

BTW, when you do your analysis, you can double check by incorporating something that SS mentioned, as, the more stars that align, the more likely things might happen, but, we must never forget that every trade is a loser, until it becomes a winner!

 

[Levels]

@Baron @Magna

I see this thread has turned into J_Smith's personal journal. Is there any way to get him to start his own journal in the appropriate section? Perhaps he should go to the Education forum since he seems to want to teach. Or better yet, maybe he should just share in private with his TFF group he was pumping earlier.

 

[J_Smith]

@Baron @Magna

I see this thread has turned into J_Smith's personal journal. Is there any way to get him to start his own journal in the appropriate section? Perhaps he should go to the Education forum since he seems to want to teach. Or better yet, maybe he should just share in private with his TFF group he was pumping earlier.

Who are YOU

J_S

 

[Simples]

You are indeed a dark horse SS, and I hope you don't mind me calling you SS

np

How did you know it was volume related, for, very few would have gotten the correct answer!

What is obvious, but not so obvious? This one was a bit more obscure though. I first thought it might be previous bars to left of screen, but couldn't verify that on the ES without spending too much time. Same with higher timeframe. Then I thought of WRBs, but didn't seem to make consistent sense. So what was left in my mind was that these levels looked similar to those found by using such volume statistics. If I was more familiar with ES, maybe I would think about all that I "knew" about ES instead? With SPX I could verify my hypothesis though, although not with much accuracy or datapoints.

In relation to ES levels, well, you know that all we can do is anticipate, and, the key to making money is not in the anticipation, but in the resulting actions that we take in relation to same.

"Anticipate" is the term clear minds would call it yes, as it connects with the necessary action required to actually realize any possibility of profits. It doesn't help anybody if they can "predict" directions or draw fancy lines, if there's no action based on analysis and hopefully a clear plan.

Again, you appear to have that one sussed also, but you failed to mention it?
Is it because of what I posted afterwards, or something else?

I run the risk of being a real smartass now I'm just a novice compared to many here, and was hoping for more riddles that can train people's minds and encourage thinking more deeply.

Gann is irrelevant, as that is a different ball game entirely, and my only reference to him was in relation to how important time is when you look at a chart, not just levels.

I was actually encouraged by you of thinking of Gann/time as long range bars, or any fast price-moves through time. Maybe "superbar" is a better word? At least it can be a funny word to use

In summary, I can tell right away that you know something about what you speak, as I am very good at reading people, and the first post nearly always tells all J_S

I always try to not "know" anything! Knowing alone is not profitable, as you rightly point out. Also, knowing implies some kind of static knowledge (ie. facts!), which is not always condusive to improving development.

Although, when we share, we might find more and further refine what we think we have to boot.

 

[J_Smith]

Overall, you know a good bit more than most, that I can tell right away.

You also have the cop on to know, that knowing, is in itself of little value!

You nearly had me posting my updated ES Hourly chart showing the confirmation of 1900 level, but as the idiot Levels has jumped out from behind the bushes, I will not, as the likes of him deserve nothing but what they give!

What most people here do no realize, is that the likes of this idiot stop people with some experience from posting what can be called "good stuff", as they clearly show that they deserve nothing.

I will however, post the updated ES Hourly chart in the TFF private thread, which you are now invited to join if you so desire, and if you decide not to join, then that is fine.

It is very rarely someone makes me think seriously with what they post, and the last person on here that I can remember was RN, who is a very good trader, and a genuine person with no silly illusions about trading.

J_S