Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

Quote from xtermz:

I've read this thread on and off for about a year now. I revisit the PDFs too. Every time I read it, I mistakenly believe I've made some deep philosophical connection into the minds of NYSEStocks, TO, etc. I stare at the charts and try to think about what it all means. Almost inevitably I seem to find some strategy for picking tops and bottoms and think to myself "aha!--I've figured it out!."

But the more I figure it out, the more I realize I know absolutely nothing.

Trading really is gambling--I can't predict the future. I don't know anything about anything. All I know is what I see but what I see has already happened--not what will happen. So if I can't predict the future, what do I do to minimize my losses and maximize my return on time?

Using a weekly chart of all history for a given stock, I thought perhaps it makes sense to buy when a stock is trading at an all time low. After all--BLASH 90% of the time right? But a lot of stocks that trade at all time lows seem to just chop sideways after they get into that kind of territory... a "broken spring" if you will. So even if I decide to bet $100 at the risk of letting the stock go to zero, I might not get an answer to my trade in a reasonable amount of time simply because the stock doesn't move.

NYSEStocks said any idiot can look at charts and tell what has happened... but it takes a clever idiot to look at a chart and say what will happen and when. Time and money are the same.

I haven't figured that part out.

I've read in this forum not to assume anything at risk of making an ass out of myself... so now I find myself questioning even "buy low sell high" because sometimes prices just want to go up (e.g. S&P tripling from 95-00) from all-time high after high.

Before entering any trade, one thought crosses my mind. "Entry is everything."

I'm still searching for what makes an entry "low risk and high probability."

I've looked in the mirror and I trust myself. But if I am to gamble, I need an edge.

Brain overload. I'll stay out of the market until things start to make sense before risking my hard earned money.
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The high probability low risk entry would be within the red box, but the issue is patience and recognizing this entry area in real time and then being able to act.

33nhu0h.png
 
Quote from Zeuxidamos:

The high probability low risk entry would be within the red box, but the issue is patience and recognizing this entry area in real time and then being able to act.

33nhu0h.png
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I've seen this before mentioned in the form of "bart" in the previous posts. I agree that this is a low-risk area if one were to put a stop just below the lowest point in the "bart" formation and wait for price to get close to the bottom.

My problem with "bart" is that I find price often doesn't get close enough to the low of a bart formation or it crosses over and stops out a trade (nowhere close to getting the 7:3 win/loss ratio nysestocks was talking about--but maybe that's just me).

RedNeck I believe said that he typically risks "a few cents for tens of cents" so this kind of trade makes sense--but there need to be additional factors I believe to identify a reliable bart from another.

Finally, nysestocks said "you can't see the top of a mountain if you're sitting on it." Maybe that means you literally have to wait for a bart formation to form, then place a buy order 1-tick below the lowest point of a bart formation and get in on the trade, and exit if it doesn't go your way within 3-4 ticks.
 
Quote from xtermz:

I've read this thread on and off for about a year now. I revisit the PDFs too. Every time I read it, I mistakenly believe I've made some deep philosophical connection into the minds of NYSEStocks, TO, etc. I stare at the charts and try to think about what it all means. Almost inevitably I seem to find some strategy for picking tops and bottoms and think to myself "aha!--I've figured it out!."
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Couldn't agree more, I've had those aha moments, written down my thoughts, come back to it later and thought, nahh I'm a dummy that's not it. :confused: Feels a fool yet again. Haha...

cheers
Bogan22
 
Quote from Zeuxidamos:

The high probability low risk entry would be within the red box, but the issue is patience and recognizing this entry area in real time and then being able to act.

33nhu0h.png
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That's my take on the box exactly. Paintings, can be just be colored boxes (like rothko) unless you understand the context and structure behind them. Same with a particular set up. The only way you get to know is by doing. If you flick through the Barry Rudd book you can kind of see boxes as well. Boxes seem to be good risk management tools. TE seemed to use them on higher time frames. Also when you think you should close out then maybe that's when you should also reverse.

They are definitely not talking about Darvas. In fact I would wager that TFF would consider him another peddler of tricks.

Regards
Bogan22
 
Quote from Zeuxidamos:

Only to the extent that I know that I know nothing, and need to stay in control.

Apart from the few hints that Nysestocks et. el. have given I have no idea what methods he/they trade with.

Anyone else care to elaborate on what the 'eye' is?
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If I recall correctly you need an eye for an 'eye', as its got something to do with a 'cunt', and your aunt having balls, who would then be your uncle.
 
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