Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

Quote from xburbx:

ha. ok. so i looked at the last few days of YHOO to say enter on the first 10min bar of the day at a break of the first 1min bar as getting in the 1st min of the day can be very tough at a good price. i would enter on the break of the high or low of that 1min bar and hold for 10min until the 10min bar closes. if it comes back within the 10min and goes in the other direction of that original 1min bar and breaks the other high/low i would reverse. a quick glance at the last few days showed some small winners but mostly small losers and break even ish trades. i am not trying to fight you on the method but trying to see further into how a profitable trader can make this kind of technique work and a non profitable trader doesnt. does the technique have to have a probability associated with it or is something beyond that? taking that trade with out fail and with out question over what i could see (on a short glance) would not prove to be overall profitable.
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1. did not say it was a valid approach..just another way of trying

2. historical bars..in isolation..mean nothing

3. if not yahoo..try another stock..or maybe SPY

4. if 10 shows no sign of being any use..maybe 30 or 60 might be better!
 
Quote from BobbiDigital:

When you say 'see it (price movement) for what it really is' my interpretation is a trend those that 'understand' can see or make an educated directional guess. The big boys and MM's know how to shake the little guy out day after day. And only when you perfect entry/R:R can you compete and it FINALLY becomes easier.

So, what would help see the higher directional probability in the market especially at the open? Today it appeared the open was the shakedown in the SPY and 9:30am was a buying opportunity. Turns out the 1st couple highs would've been great shorts. Should the ES opening down 3 points been enough to anticipate yesterday's high holding early and look for a couple legs down?
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well BD..all i can say..is..practice makes perfect:D

let me see if i have a SPY screenshot..it just so happens i was trying out a few small changes to TE's excel sheet today
 
i will have to add the time of day to the chart..quality is a bit bad..but it will do for now

anything obvious in this pic?

screenshot008u.png
 
see if this is better qual..i think the usual sites are limiting file size..the bastards:D

i have added another volume column nearer to the action..might also change the bid ask static colors next

anything obvious in this pic?

7021828.jpg
 
when price broke to that 119.50 area there was more volume that accumulate within a few cents of that number. When it tried to break under the 119.30 there was an instant large order that hit long after the breakdown but it was immediately rejected.
 
THe obvious = A market never moves in a straight line

Quote from nysestocks:

Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

I have read thru some of the recent and distant posts in this section, and have come to the conclusion that; the obvious is not so obvious to many!

There appears to be a lot of textbook information being thrown around, especially in relation to position sizing and risk management.

What every trader has to realise, is that all the risk management and position sizing techniques in the world are of no use what so ever, unless the trader is aware of the obvious pre-requisite to trading any market.

It will be very interesting to see what answers the many traders come up with for the obvious, those with little and lots of experience alike!
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