Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

There is a lot more to this statement than what is posted.

-How do you know what suits you/me best?

-At first looking at the two techniques I thought it has to do with coming up with a plan like 1 or 2 and then just doing that same thing without fail. People say they break their plans and thats why they arent profitable. I would be willing to place some kind of bet in live trading that 1 or 2 wouldnt make me profitable if i did it for say a month without fail. I also dont think that is what TO was trying to say. I am not challenging the methods, but trying to grasp the message.

Quote from The Oracle:

there are many many techniques..but one must find what suits one best..remember!

in fact..i am certain that anyone here can come up with their own technique that works..and it can be very simple..so..lets see if we can come up with some new techniques

1. only buy/sell after a fast move up/down on any new 10 min bar..with a stop equal to 1/4 the distance of the move..and profit target equal to 1/2 the distance..or more..depending on the follow thru

i wonder if this one will work?

2. buy/sell the open depending on the futures change +/- and cover 5 minutes before the close of the day..stop equal 1/4 the ADR and profit taken at close if not stopped out..stop moved to break even after 11:00 and moved up in 25 cent increments

i wonder if this one will work any better?
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Quote from xburbx:

watched the video and i will need the actual language part translated which will take some time. trying to follow along by what he pointed at and what he had on screen i would saying the following are important.

- The book - shows liquidity and whats on deck (can be faked from what I understand)
- T&S
- Chart

I did see he mentioned the orders coming in on T&S and the times they stamp. The more orders hitting in a short period of time would show the speed of the tape. Order in large fashion, from what I understand, can only hit in 2 ways. A lot of small orders very quick or very large orders that are several thousand to several tens of thousands of shares in one order. If 20x100share orders hit the market and tear the T&S in fast speed, does that have the same impact as say 1x5000 order hitting?
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see the diff here!

this one is a total waste of time

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xMuTAo8Vqyo
 
Quote from xburbx:

There is a lot more to this statement than what is posted.

-How do you know what suits you/me best?

-At first looking at the two techniques I thought it has to do with coming up with a plan like 1 or 2 and then just doing that same thing without fail. People say they break their plans and thats why they arent profitable. I would be willing to place some kind of bet in live trading that 1 or 2 wouldnt make me profitable if i did it for say a month without fail. I also dont think that is what TO was trying to say. I am not challenging the methods, but trying to grasp the message.
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the point is..have u ever looked closely at a 10 min bar when the price moves fast..measured the move in cent..knowing where u will enter and exit?

if not..why not?

in fact..have u ever looked at anything besides what is printed in books and posted on website?

who is to say that anyone else know better than u..the big pension find managers..now that is a real joke:eek:

if u have less time maybe..lets see

how about using 30 min bars..and we do not enter until the 3rd bar is complete..and based on certain criteria..we place an order..and exit at close of day..stop below the low of day..and stop moved based on price movement..to lock in profit

we win or lose..day in and day out..every trading day of the year
 
>as for the mental toll..well..that is up to u..and no one else..for the only person who can help u there is urself..but..as with all things in life..success does not come easy..and u must feel the pain before the gain..how much pain u feel will be determined by how well u stick to ur plan..simple as that!<

Understood TO, and thanks for your prompt reply. I understand that the only way I can truly know about this is through direct experience. I've had similar experiences whilst investing. However, I was fishing for some of your experiences in dealing with these issue throughout your journey. There may be some handy lessons/tips/tricks I can incorporate before I initiate myself.


Regards
The Bogan
 
Quote from The Oracle:

the point is..have u ever looked closely at a 10 min bar when the price moves fast..measured the move in cent..knowing where u will enter and exit?

measured in cents? yes - the fast moving bars that i would like to enter are usually a really long 1min bar with 9 minutes of stall at the bottom or top. if i somehow knew that 1min would break and stall in at the bottom, it would be great.

if not..why not? - yes above. i looked at it in trying to see what precedes a large move because that is where i want to be right before it happens.

in fact..have u ever looked at anything besides what is printed in books and posted on website? - ha. yes. my questions and account probably say otherwise. i trade, then study the actual charts, then read the net. in that order

who is to say that anyone else know better than u..the big pension find managers..now that is a real joke:eek:

if u have less time maybe..lets see

how about using 30 min bars..and we do not enter until the 3rd bar is complete..and based on certain criteria..we place an order..and exit at close of day..stop below the low of day..and stop moved based on price movement..to lock in profit - never tried

we win or lose..day in and day out..every trading day of the year
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An example of the 10min question and my answer was YHOO today and yesterday. I actually used the first of the days 15min bar for this. First 15min today a short would have worked great and stalled to a good place. The day before, entering on the first 15min bar first min would have been a whipsaw and loss. A sample size of 2 is not exactly a good size but just and example
 
Quote from bogan22:

>as for the mental toll..well..that is up to u..and no one else..for the only person who can help u there is urself..but..as with all things in life..success does not come easy..and u must feel the pain before the gain..how much pain u feel will be determined by how well u stick to ur plan..simple as that!<

Understood TO, and thanks for your prompt reply. I understand that the only way I can truly know about this is through direct experience. I've had similar experiences whilst investing. However, I was fishing for some of your experiences in dealing with these issue throughout your journey. There may be some handy lessons/tips/tricks I can incorporate before I initiate myself.


Regards
The Bogan
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yes..of course u can look at what others have done..but don't be surprised if u can not use it right away..for..it takes a good while to learn to think like others do..and..most never do

if u stick to some basic stuff..it can be a lot easier..as complicating things only makes it harder

first step is get barry rudd's book if u don't already have it..stock patterns for daytrading and swingtraing..it is old..but has some very good practical stuff..that will help to make some sense of price movement

after that.. i will send u something that might help u see a bit more..but as mentioned..do not be surprised if u do not see it right away..it takes time to understand..and thus..see it for what it really is

TO
 
Quote from xburbx:

An example of the 10min question and my answer was YHOO today and yesterday. I actually used the first of the days 15min bar for this. First 15min today a short would have worked great and stalled to a good place. The day before, entering on the first 15min bar first min would have been a whipsaw and loss. A sample size of 2 is not exactly a good size but just and example
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the one bar that i never use..is the 15 min..it is banned from my screens:D
 
ha. ok. so i looked at the last few days of YHOO to say enter on the first 10min bar of the day at a break of the first 1min bar as getting in the 1st min of the day can be very tough at a good price. i would enter on the break of the high or low of that 1min bar and hold for 10min until the 10min bar closes. if it comes back within the 10min and goes in the other direction of that original 1min bar and breaks the other high/low i would reverse. a quick glance at the last few days showed some small winners but mostly small losers and break even ish trades. i am not trying to fight you on the method but trying to see further into how a profitable trader can make this kind of technique work and a non profitable trader doesnt. does the technique have to have a probability associated with it or is something beyond that? taking that trade with out fail and with out question over what i could see (on a short glance) would not prove to be overall profitable.
 
Quote from The Oracle:

yes..of course u can look at what others have done..but don't be surprised if u can not use it right away..for..it takes a good while to learn to think like others do..and..most never do

if u stick to some basic stuff..it can be a lot easier..as complicating things only makes it harder

first step is get barry rudd's book if u don't already have it..stock patterns for daytrading and swingtraing..it is old..but has some very good practical stuff..that will help to make some sense of price movement

after that.. i will send u something that might help u see a bit more..but as mentioned..do not be surprised if u do not see it right away..it takes time to understand..and thus..see it for what it really is

TO
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Thanks TO, I picked up on NY and TE's references to the rudd book and the wiggly bits, but I did not spend to much time on the rest of the content. I'll review that over the coming week.

Regards
The Bogan
 
Quote from The Oracle:

yes..of course u can look at what others have done..but don't be surprised if u can not use it right away..for..it takes a good while to learn to think like others do..and..most never do

if u stick to some basic stuff..it can be a lot easier..as complicating things only makes it harder

first step is get barry rudd's book if u don't already have it..stock patterns for daytrading and swingtraing..it is old..but has some very good practical stuff..that will help to make some sense of price movement

after that.. i will send u something that might help u see a bit more..but as mentioned..do not be surprised if u do not see it right away..it takes time to understand..and thus..see it for what it really is

TO
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When you say 'see it (price movement) for what it really is' my interpretation is a trend those that 'understand' can see or make an educated directional guess. The big boys and MM's know how to shake the little guy out day after day. And only when you perfect entry/R:R can you compete and it FINALLY becomes easier.

So, what would help see the higher directional probability in the market especially at the open? Today it appeared the open was the shakedown in the SPY and 9:30am was a buying opportunity. Turns out the 1st couple highs would've been great shorts. Should the ES opening down 3 points been enough to anticipate yesterday's high holding early and look for a couple legs down?
 
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