Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

Quote from baron193:

Yes, i guess i have become too cynical, i don't trust too many people, and i have seen too many "experts" on the net.
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Hard not to be... I'm the same way. Off and online. People are generally aholes. On the plus side, it makes me appreciate my family and close friends. Great call on the short @25.
 
Thanks RN,

Sometimes i'm so confused i don't know which questions to ask. But mostly now it's just me reviewing my set ups and asking myself the questions.

Again, i appreciate all the sharing and info you provide.

good trading to you

jas

Quote from Redneck:

JAS


Me posting setups/ entries is getting too close to me appearing to make calls/ tell others how to trade

And I am not comfortable with that



Here’s what I’ll say

Reading price – is an absolute necessary skill

Creating context, which is in tune with price – is absolutely necessary

Being able to think out of both sides of our brain – is absolutely necessary (long/ short/ stand pat)


Then setups (an entry, stop loss exit, and target) become a dime a dozen


In fact – every tick of price is a signal – to enter, exit, or stand pat


=====================================================================

Learn to build proper context and trust it

Trend lines are diagonal S&R lines…, just as horizontal S&R lines are


Price touching and being rejected off either – is a set up

Price breaking through either and continuing – is a set up


As are many.., many more signals – if you but learn to extrapolate them from price


Btw Thank You for the kind words awhile back

If you have specific questions about set ups, please ask


RN
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Quote from rossky:

I think "be able to" is placed here on purpose. Has it happened to you that you act = do, and do it, and do it, ...and then you find yourself not being able to do it anymore? It happens to me for not so obvious reasons.

Mysteron said that the ultimate obvious is not attainable. He also said that faith without evidence is delusional BS. Mysteron, could you explain, please?

I also think that since I speak about "being able to" here, it probably means that I failed to fully embrace Uncertainty, or it simply wears me down way too often and too fast.
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Actually it was TO who said "the ultimate obvious is not attainable". On the one hand the statement seemed to be saying that there is an ultimate secret that will never be revealed. On the other hand I thought the statement was possibly just word play meaning: the ultimate obvious is not in TA but is in being able, i.e. in oneself.

I did previously state: "faith without evidence is delusional BS." Thats a general statement about any form of faith without evidence, such as religious beliefs, astrology, homeopathy, luck etc. When I said it, it was in response to the reference by TO to "a small big secret rare" after I had asked a question about trend lines. The reason I said it was because any mention of secrets that are not going to be shared, explained and for which there is no apparent way to gain an understanding, requires an act of faith to accept they are true.

The Expert, who you may have heard of, used to post on Trade2Win (and ET too). On that site there was a discussion of opening gaps and H-L, C-O ranges. He claimed there was a secret that would not be revealed and that it would 'blow your mind away' when it was seen. When I attempted to discuss this much later on a private site I never got any meaningful response, so over a long period of time I tried to discover the secret by looking at charts similar to one shown, and considered all the possible relationships and correlations of opening gap with H,L,C,O of the previous and current day. Eventually I discovered it, or so I thought and was very pleased with myself. Not long after that I found an error in my program and realised that I had in fact not found any secret at all. After that experience I concluded that The Expert had also, most likely, made a mistake and was wrong. Of course I may be wrong, but without any other evidence I have to rely on my own investigations which failed to find any useful property of gaps.

So now if anyone suggests that there is a secret then I'm only inclined to believe it if there is some means of acquiring evidence too. The concept of chocolate teapot comes to mind!

1js36v.png
 
Quote from poland:

Dear TO,


if I increase the number of trades.....probably I will win in a linger run...BUT with larger number of trades...I will be also paying more commission....hence the net might not be great??
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well PO..it all depends on what u are trading..and what u call a large number of trades!

are u talking about scalping?

we have seen the fx experts in action recently:)..i am not sure how many trades they done as i stopped reading after the first few posts:eek:

TE sent me an excel file for the little old stocky fellows:D and i plugged in mr big fx to see what came up..needs a little bit of tweaking..but not much

i am not going to use the file..but i might look at it some time later..to see what this T&S is all about..unable to share the file right now..but maybe TE will change his mind..if the bold boys start behaving themselves:eek:

screenshot098.png


screenshot102q.png
 
those screens actually look familiar as about 3 years ago i was looking at trading with a similar basis but couldnt make anything out of it. go figure. i had a program for esignal that showed the bid/ask spread tick by tick. it was really high speed movement but it was interesting to see that when size came in when the bid/ask spread increased it caused the market to turn. the chart ended up looking identical to those.

it makes sense as there are no buyers/sellers taking the new price so price had to go up or down
 
Quote from Mysteron:

Actually it was TO who said "the ultimate obvious is not attainable". On the one hand the statement seemed to be saying that there is an ultimate secret that will never be revealed. On the other hand I thought the statement was possibly just word play meaning: the ultimate obvious is not in TA but is in being able, i.e. in oneself.

I did previously state: "faith without evidence is delusional BS." Thats a general statement about any form of faith without evidence, such as religious beliefs, astrology, homeopathy, luck etc. When I said it, it was in response to the reference by TO to "a small big secret rare" after I had asked a question about trend lines. The reason I said it was because any mention of secrets that are not going to be shared, explained and for which there is no apparent way to gain an understanding, requires an act of faith to accept thay are true.

The Expert, who you may have heard of, used to post on Trade2Win (and ET too). On that site there was a discussion of opening gaps and H-L, C-O ranges. He claimed there was a secret that would not be revealed and that it would 'blow your mind away' when it was seen. When I attempted to discuss this much later on a private site I never got any meaningful response, so over a long period of time I tried to discover the secret by looking at charts similar to one shown, and considered all the possible relationships and correlations of opening gap with H,L,C,O of the previous and current day. Eventually I discovered it, or so I thought and was very pleased with myself. Not long after that I found an error in my program and realised that I had in fact not found any secret at all. After that experience I concluded that The Expert had also, most likely, made a mistake and was wrong. Of course I may be wrong, but without any other evidence I have to rely on my own investigations which failed to find any useful property of gaps.

So now if anyone suggests that there is a secret then I'm only inclined to only believe it if there is some means of acquiring evidence too.

1js36v.png
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well MN..u should never believe anything u read on public forums..has that not been mentioned enough times already

of course there are secrets..every person has them..so what..why should that bother anyone else!

if u try to copy someone else then u might just end up wasting a ot of time..or/and losing a lot of money

TFF has always said that the most important thing..above all else..is the % risk per trade..for..for OBVIOUS reasons

gaps are but one play..and like all other plays..nothing is ever certain or guaranteed when trading..so..it looks like u have been in search of the wrong thing..altogether

that file TE sent me was not very good for fx..but i have made a small adjustment..and now it is better..it was a very simple adjustment..see if u can make out what the adjustment was when i post it..it might help u..or it might not..it depends on you
 
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