Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

Quote from baron193:

Well i think i should say a big thank you to all the experts, oracles
and all round gurus for reminding me of how stupid i will be if the obvious does not become obvious to me very soon.
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B193

I won’t coddle, sugar coat, enable, or make excuses for - any one – in any way

But if you think for one moment I was talking down to you

Then I sincerely apologize to you Sir



Market is quite capable of handing me my ass in a split second – been there done that numerous times, and not even a Tee shirt (probably could have bought the damn factory by now)

I am no better than anyone


RN
 
Quote from Redneck:

B193

I won’t coddle, sugar coat, enable, or make excuses for - any one – in any way

But if you think for one moment I was talking down to you

Then I sincerely apologize to you Sir



Market is quite capable of handing me my ass in a split second – been there done that numerous times, and not even a Tee shirt (probably could have bought the damn factory by now)

I am no better than anyone


RN
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We don't know each other personaly, but it appears the way someone expreses him/her self on a forum speaks volumes about their personality, at least i think so, as like trading we never really know for sure, do we?
Nonetheless, you sir, i admire.
Sincerely, Ant.
 
IMO...the lowest risk entry is selling the intraday spike into resistance. Whenever you get a wide-spread move into a level like that it means that move is getting extended. The reaction off of the resistance level tells you that the sellers have came in.

It like action/reaction...don't sell a grinding move higher into a resistance area. Its had enough time to build energy to move through. The vertical move hasn't.
 

Attachments

Quote from xburbx:

how big was the loss and how big were the wins?
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I don't remember! without the benefit of intraday trading you have to exit as soon as you get a hint of wrong direction, that is unless you are near a good S/R, where you might have a chance of salvaging the trade somewhat.
Overnight can be brutal huh?
I don't trade Daily and definetely not stocks.
 
Quote from Shanb:

IMO...the lowest risk entry is selling the intraday spike into resistance. Whenever you get a wide-spread move into a level like that it means that move is getting extended. The reaction off of the resistance level tells you that the sellers have came in.

It like action/reaction...don't sell a grinding move higher into a resistance area. Its had enough time to build energy to move through. The vertical move hasn't.
More...


Dissect what you see

You have no idea if there is resistance up there or not


Side note

Whenever we review a chart – we must always be careful not to induce hindsight bias

We’ll never have that luxury – but we can use it to learn… then as the day unfolds in front of us – exploit it


Also – never assume high is too high… or low is too low

Make price prove it to you, otherwise you will be unhappily surprised - time..., and time again

RN
 
Quote from baron193:

We don't know each other personaly, but it appears the way someone expreses him/her self on a forum speaks volumes about their personality, at least i think so, as like trading we never really know for sure, do we?
Nonetheless, you sir, i admire.
Sincerely, Ant.
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You are much too kind - Thank You

Now let's figure out the obvious :)

RN
 
One i just played now and made a mess of, i won't explain what the marks on the chart mean, you all are experienced enough to know where the entries should have been and why..
 
Quote from baron193:

I don't remember! without the benefit of intraday trading you have to exit as soon as you get a hint of wrong direction, that is unless you are near a good S/R, where you might have a chance of salvaging the trade somewhat.
Overnight can be brutal huh?
I don't trade Daily and definetely not stocks.
More...

Define a "hint"

btw in the current environment - using a hint will get your ass whipsawed. racking up commission, and losing to boot

So what do we do???
=======================================

On another note....

How would you define "good" S/R

What would it look like - either after the fact... and/or as its being formed

Both are exploitable after all

RN
 
Quote from Redneck:

Define a "hint"

btw in the current environment - using a hint will get your ass whipsawed. racking up commission, and losing to boot

So what to we do???
=======================================

On another note....

How would you define "good" S/R

What would it look like - either after the fact... and/or as its being formed

Both are exploitable after all

RN
More...
OK, give me a bit of time and i'll show you on the chart..
 
RN - Here is what I have from 1000 yards to the 5min

The weekly and daily just broke the down channel line to the upside. Monthly and weekly bounced off support (what i see as support). This is in picture A. It cut through the demand and bounced off that spike from 10/1/06. I saw 35.41 as first monthly support and 32.34 as second but it didnt bounce until 27.46 in the current month.

Then on the daily there is a clear down channel where price was riding the top of the channel. It breaks over the upside of the channel on 10/10/11.

^^In my mind I am seeing a bounce off monthly and weekly support and a break in the daily channel so I am thinking longs are in play^^

Then on the one hour we have support spikes at 33.24 that seem to be dealing with the demand from 10/7. We have resistance at the earlier monthly 35.41

Then there is a 1hour upchannel break on the hourly 1 oclock bar. On the 5min I could enter on the first 5min consolidation break for a short after the 1hour breakdown bar completed. I can target the resistance because my ADR is roughly 2.00 and I have 1 dollar to go with a stop placed above the upchannel line. This is a 30 cent stop.

((This does not consider any outside factors vix, futures, trin, tick etc)).

---Here is the mind F***. With monthly and weekly and daily suggesting up, not knowing if those s/r areas are the right ones in general because there are a million ways people pick them, hourly overall price movement is sideways, daily just had its downchannel broken so the only thing telling me to short his is the hourly 2 day break in the upchannel line and the bounce off of resistance. The majority of what I see tells me long.--
 
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