Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

xburbx · Oct 22, 2011

Monthly

Weekly

Daily

Hourly

5min

baron193 · Oct 22, 2011

The S/R lines drawn whole way through i drew prior to any trading (without looking at any more price history).
Hint: the first KR marked with the first green arrow, buying evident off the support( i'm sure intraday pattern would be there as well with better R/R to buy)
The intermediate line was drawn after PA showed me it was S/R.
All very basic stuff i think, feel free to pull apart (anyone) as i am here to learn.

Added:forgot to mention, selling was overextented something i always pay attention to.

Redneck · Oct 22, 2011

Quote from rossky:

"There is plenty of ways to test trading strategies, but who is going to test you - the trader himself, the most important component of any trading strategy?"

The market - in every way, shape, and form....

Whether we pass or fail is always reflected in our PnL (the ultimate trading indicator)

Reality can sometimes be a bitch

RN

Redneck · Oct 22, 2011

Quote from xburbx:

RN - Here is what I have from 1000 yards to the 5min

The weekly and daily just broke the down channel line to the upside. Monthly and weekly bounced off support (what i see as support). This is in picture A. It cut through the demand and bounced off that spike from 10/1/06. I saw 35.41 as first monthly support and 32.34 as second but it didnt bounce until 27.46 in the current month.

Then on the daily there is a clear down channel where price was riding the top of the channel. It breaks over the upside of the channel on 10/10/11.

^^In my mind I am seeing a bounce off monthly and weekly support and a break in the daily channel so I am thinking longs are in play^^

Then on the one hour we have support spikes at 33.24 that seem to be dealing with the demand from 10/7. We have resistance at the earlier monthly 35.41

Then there is a 1hour upchannel break on the hourly 1 oclock bar. On the 5min I could enter on the first 5min consolidation break for a short after the 1hour breakdown bar completed. I can target the resistance because my ADR is roughly 2.00 and I have 1 dollar to go with a stop placed above the upchannel line. This is a 30 cent stop.

((This does not consider any outside factors vix, futures, trin, tick etc)).

---Here is the mind F***. With monthly and weekly and daily suggesting up, not knowing if those s/r areas are the right ones in general because there are a million ways people pick them, hourly overall price movement is sideways, daily just had its downchannel broken so the only thing telling me to short his is the hourly 2 day break in the upchannel line and the bounce off of resistance. The majority of what I see tells me long.--

Good Lord Man this would blow my mind

Please step back to the SINGLE chart of HAL, and dissect it

Please keep it simple - I am a dumb ass redneck after all

When trading all I can, or care to, think about - is VERY few things, not 9 dozen

(do not take this last sentence as meaning I don't know the bigger picture - I do... But I must first.., foremost..., and only..., be concerned about what price is doing right now)

I don't even care why..., or ever think about it...

RN

Redneck · Oct 22, 2011

Quote from baron193:

The S/R lines drawn whole way through i drew prior to any trading (without looking at any more price history).
Hint: the first KR marked with the first green arrow, buying evident off the support( i'm sure intraday pattern would be there as well with better R/R to buy)
The intermediate line was drawn after PA showed me it was S/R.
All very basic stuff i think, feel free to pull apart (anyone) as i am here to learn.

Added:forgot to mention, selling was overextented something i always pay attention to.

B193

The devil is in the details - we must add a significant amount more devil to our chart for it to be profitable

(and I don't mean additional TF's although I am a big proponent of them)

Just devil to this chart to make it useful

Also with all due respect to counter trend traders (which I was too at one point but don't any more)

overextended / over bought/ over sold - are over rated, and over used terms in my book

Always trade what is, not what might be - unless you can succinctly quantify it.. and know when you are wrong

RN

baron193 · Oct 22, 2011

Quote from Redneck:

B193

The devil is in the details - we must add a significant amount more devil to our chart for it to be profitable

(and I don't mean additional TF's although I am a big proponent of them)

Just devil to this chart to make it useful

Also with all due respect to counter trend traders (which I was too at one point but don't any more)

overextended / over bought/ over sold - are over rated, and over used terms in my book

Always trade what is, not what might be - unless you can succinctly quantify it.. and know when you are wrong

RN

I heed your critisism and will study chart more carefuly when i have time

baron193 · Oct 22, 2011

Quote from Redneck:

B193

Always trade what is, not what might be - unless you can succinctly quantify it.. and know when you are wrong

RN

Yes you are right, knowing when you are wrong on these situations is hard as fakes happen on levels like that often, i have experienced first hand what happens when i have tried to find the bottom on a trade just like that before, sitting there looking at it on hindsight thinking what a fool i'd been for not shorting LL Breakouts.

IntelliBitz · Oct 22, 2011

Quote from The Oracle:

ZT..price can only do 3 things

1. move up - buyers exceed sellers
2. move sideways - buyers equal sellers
3. move down - sellers exceed buyers

u do not want to be in a trade when buyers = sellers

why so because?

Because we don't know which way it will break out and so will be wasting time until price moves up or down. So we buy when price moves up and sell when price moves down. Is this correct thinking?

IntelliBitz · Oct 22, 2011

Quote from The Oracle:

well MK..is that not the six million dollar question

but..lets try and apply some common sense and see what happens

price is moving up and it then peaks and reverses..we now have a new recent high in place

the high holds and the price drops back a bit

some time passes and the high is still not taken out..but the price has not really fallen much either

what should we do..and what does it depend on?

opposite for a new recent low..but the same thing

Sell the high since the price has stopped moving, and in all probability might begin to come down. But you never know.

IntelliBitz · Oct 22, 2011

Quote from The Oracle:

5. this is the hard bit..up to now has been common sense stuff..u must come up with a way to execute trades that allows u take advantage of time..and..that means..u must come up with an average return..or R/R ratio..that will make you good money over a set number of trades..and the number of trades required will be determined by the way..or stragegy if u want to call it that..that u have come up with to identify entries and exits

TO

Ok, will think more on this one. Thanks.