Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

Quote from AlpineTrout:

Hypothetical question for you nyses:

Lets say you were given a magic crystal ball by someone you trusted and you had even seen its magic work with your own two eyes. You are 100% certain that what it tells you is true.

This magic ball will only work for you once. This one and only time it will tell you that this one particular stock which today is at 5, will be at 100 on the last trading day of the month.

Would you bet every $ you have and leverage to the max on this bet?
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NO WAY:eek:

Firstly, I try and live in the world or reality and fact, not where our good friend Mr Walter Mitty resides.

Thing is, I trust no one only myself:D

I have seen some very good traders lose money for silly reasons, and some of those traders even know a good bit more than I do!

So, if they have an even better edge than me, then why did they still lose so much money?

It is no good making money in the stock market if you lose it back again.

I would much prefer to take $100 often, than try and take $10K now and again - but when the $10K jumps up and hits my big nose :D , then I will gladly take it.
 
Quote from TraderD:

nyse,

was that a BLASH or BHASH? It is not obvious:)
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It was heading for a BLASH - as was everything else!

You will not make money unless you actually trade, but you should only trade when it is "obvious" that you have a good chance of not losing too much:D
 
Quote from k11y:

Gambling -> obvious

Find a method of making small profits with very high probability and it will give good profit.

Probability has the most control of drawdowns while both probability and W/L ratio greatly affect profit.

Great thread,
Regards
K
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Ah yes, that little word "drawdown", which really just means you losing some, or a lot, of your hard earned money.

The casino event, and I hate repeating it, shows how stupid people really are.

One chap, threw away about $2.5K in about 5 min:eek:

And to make it worse, when he placed his bet, he actually walked away and, I am not sure, but I thought I saw him playing another table as well!

What a big idiot - he really had his plan worked out before he was placing about $500+ per spin :eek:

I sat back enjoying my bottle of beer, just kept taking my 2 chips off the pile for the next bet, and was able to sit back and observe the many expressions that were forming on the faces of the gamblers - most of which were not very happy - my mate and I were the only ones drinking beer, btw:D
 
Quote from AlpineTrout:

Hypothetical question for you nyses:

Lets say you were given a magic crystal ball by someone you trusted and you had even seen its magic work with your own two eyes. You are 100% certain that what it tells you is true.

This magic ball will only work for you once. This one and only time it will tell you that this one particular stock which today is at 5, will be at 100 on the last trading day of the month.

Would you bet every $ you have and leverage to the max on this bet?
More...

Also AT,

Not only have I seen the magical crystal ball, but I have also seen those who hold it in both hands fail, over and over!

One might do oneself a big favor, if one did not forget that the 3lb of grey matter between the ears is the only magical crystal ball that they really need to see!!
 
nyse. please define risk for me.


I think your definition will be something along the lines of this:

your risk is what you allow the market to take.

and if that is your definition I feel that it is imperfect. there is always an amount that theee market will try to take even if it is just commission on the trade. so how can one identify the margin of error to give the market and still have an optimal risk management?

sorry for the terrible post and questions that may have no revelance. I wanted to get the whole thing off my head bc I will be away from a computer for some time.
 
Quote from nysestocks:

Of course.

The majority of people who try to daytrade lose money.

The reason why they lose is very simple, and very common.

If the majority of traders lose, why then do new traders think that they will win by following and doing what the majority do?
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because they think they are smarter then everybody else :D :D
 
I see someone has identified the "O"

A little compare and contrast to hopefully assist others


Please remember it is a process


C - Caution
O - Observation
N
T - Timing
R - Reaction
O - Orientation
L - Level head

VS


C - Casual
H - Hoping
A - Angry
O - Over confident
S - Silly




Take Care
 
so if everyone thinks they are smarter then everyone else why aren't they moving the market?

given 90% lose money, how does that work?
 
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