Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

[nysestocks]

Quote from trackstar:

nyse. please define risk for me.


I think your definition will be something along the lines of this:

your risk is what you allow the market to take.

and if that is your definition I feel that it is imperfect. there is always an amount that theee market will try to take even if it is just commission on the trade. so how can one identify the margin of error to give the market and still have an optimal risk management?

sorry for the terrible post and questions that may have no revelance. I wanted to get the whole thing off my head bc I will be away from a computer for some time.

I am afraid TS, that you might ask the impossible!

How can I define risk for you, when it is "YOU" who must trade your own money?

Take the casino, some of the people there obviously had buckets of money to throw away, so, to them, risking $500+ per roulette spin probably meant piddly piss:eek:

Then, when you look around and see other gamblers playing the 1cent slot machines, well, the $500+ risk probably means an awful lot to them!

It is actually very simple, if you but stop and think!

You should never risk any more than you are willing to lose.

Most traders can't get their head around every trade being a loser, which is what it must be before it can be a winner!

Like Morpheus said,

"There is a big difference between knowing the path, and walking the path".

As for the "market" - remember that everyone out there is an idiot!

If you let "idiots" take your money, all of the time, then you are not an idiot yourself, you are a fool - I do not mean you directly of course , but anyone who is not able to control what they will lose in a single transaction.

You trade when the chances of you losing a lot are small - the winners will then just become a matter of time!

Over time, with experience, more risk can be taken once the head is fully awake, and it is as clear as day as to what can, and can't, happen when you are in a trade.

Again, I must bring up the roulette gambling from yesterday - how did I ensure that I would not lose any more than the minimum bet of $15 per spin, and still give myself the odds of doubling my money if a few hours?

Hey, remember I am no expert, as there are none, but I do like to think differently to most, as I know that most people that I trade against are idiots, and I do not like giving too much of my money to an idiot

 

[nysestocks]

Quote from Redneck trader:

I see someone has identified the "O"

A little compare and contrast to hopefully assist others


Please remember it is a process


C - Caution
O - Observation
N
T - Timing
R - Reaction
O - Orientation
L - Level head

VS


C - Casual
H - Hoping
A - Angry
O - Over confident
S - Silly




Take Care

Redneck trader and nysestocks both registered in Dec2008 - and both have about the same amount of posts!

Are they one and the same?

Now, just watch the skeptics sit up and take note

 

[trackstar]

Quote from nysestocks:

I am afraid TS, that you might ask the impossible!

How can I define risk for you, when it is "YOU" who must trade your own money?

Take the casino, some of the people there obviously had buckets of money to throw away, so, to them, risking $500+ per roulette spin probably meant piddly piss:eek:

Then, when you look around and see other gamblers playing the 1cent slot machines, well, the $500+ risk probably means an awful lot to them!

It is actually very simple, if you but stop and think!

You should never risk any more than you are willing to lose.

Most traders can't get their head around every trade being a loser, which is what it must be before it can be a winner!

Like Morpheus said,

"There is a big difference between knowing the path, and walking the path".

As for the "market" - remember that everyone out there is an idiot!

If you let "idiots" take your money, all of the time, then you are not an idiot yourself, you are a fool - I do not mean you directly of course , but anyone who is not able to control what they will lose in a single transaction.

You trade when the chances of you losing a lot are small - the winners will then just become a matter of time!

Over time, with experience, more risk can be taken once the head is fully awake, and it is as clear as day as to what can, and can't, happen when you are in a trade.

Again, I must bring up the roulette gambling from yesterday - how did I ensure that I would not lose any more than the minimum bet of $15 per spin, and still give myself the odds of doubling my money if a few hours?

Hey, remember I am no expert, as there are none, but I do like to think differently to most, as I know that most people that I trade against are idiots, and I do not like giving too much of my money to an idiot

I like what you say but I meant to ask for YOUR definition of risk. Not for you to define it for me. I have not perfected my definition of risk but you post did give an added angle on my perspective of it.

 

[nysestocks]

Quote from trackstar:

I like what you say but I meant to ask for YOUR definition of risk. Not for you to define it for me. I have not perfected my definition of risk but you post did give an added angle on my perspective of it.

Trading is gambling.

When you gamble you must accept the fact that you can, and more than likely will, lose!

Definitions and terms are meaningless - actions and resulting outcomes are what matters most.

If you want an answer as to when you should "risk" more money than you would normally do so, it should be very "obvious" that the answer is when your chances of losing are far less than normal.

How you determine this, will be in direct proportion to how you think, and how you view, the market you are trading.

Sh*ite, if I am not careful I will start thinking that I might know something, and that is a very dangerous thing to do

I used to read a lot of the rubbish published about "trading", but now I prefer to see what transpires in the "real" world of gambling, and paying a little visit to the casino, every now and again - not too often mind you - can help one get their head out of their arse and see what the "reality" of gambling entails:eek:

Not sure if this helps, but that is what has come out of my head, like it or lump it - but again, the reality is that it really does not matter for me, as I am what I am, and, you should be what you are, not to try and be someone else - not suggesting you are of course

 

[nysestocks]

Quote from antincedo:

so if everyone thinks they are smarter then everyone else why aren't they moving the market?

given 90% lose money, how does that work?

The average "trader" is but a drop in the Ocean of Finance.

I do not even try to think about what idiot economists think about, for that is mainstream thought, and that can be very bad for the bottom line!

Many say that the"Stock Market" has to go up, so that the wheels of finance can keep turning.

Well, everyone now knows that the stock market falls a lot faster than it goes up.

Them you have that Madoff idiot who, was like a "Pope" to some people:eek:

Did you just see that "black cat" walk by again

I am telling you, idiots the whole lot of them, and if you listen to idiots, then you can expect only one thing, and that is, rubbish

The greatest person in the world is YOU - and YOU do not need anyone to tell, or show you, what to do - if you but wake up and face reality, of course!

Shi*e, I am starting again, and now I am beginning to sound like those stupid "groups" in America that "help" so many people:eek:

 

[trackstar]

Okay. One more concept that has been on my mind. You are of course right that the majority of players in the market lose. So this means there is an entity(or small group) that wins the MAJORITY of the time. We all know that the market consists of buyers and sellers and for each there is the other.

So technically speaking you should be able to follow the MAJORITY of trades (contracts) to win. Which then in turn leads to AMT/MP and such.

In essence my point is that the MAJORITY can also win, the majority of contracts, that are on the right side most often.

 

[nysestocks]

Quote from trackstar:

Okay. One more concept that has been on my mind. You are of course right that the majority of players in the market lose. So this means there is an entity(or small group) that wins the MAJORITY of the time. We all know that the market consists of buyers and sellers and for each there is the other.

So technically speaking you should be able to follow the MAJORITY of trades (contracts) to win. Which then in turn leads to AMT/MP and such.

In essence my point is that the MAJORITY can also win, the majority of contracts, that are on the right side most often.

Hmm, you are asking, that is "obvious"

Let's forget about all this majority and minority crap for a minute.

Who enables the markets to operate - for, if they are the enablers, then they are really the ones in control.

How many pension funds are there in America alone?

How many "private" investment funds are there in the world?

How many millionaires are there in the world?

Volume does not always mean follow thru in a certain direction - although it is obvious that volume is buying and selling transactions.

Why then, does volume only seem to work some of the time, and not all of the time?

If you look at volume, more than price, then you may be heading up that wrong path, which is just what the BIG FAT ARSE CATS want you to do.

I am not sure if I said the markets are "controlled" - but, the reality is that, those who can, will, and those who can't, won't!

Personally, I think that trying to "analyze" volume / size is a futile effort, as,

"anything can happen at any time in the markets"

and that one time when your magical crystal ball is shining real bright, might just be that one time when "your balls are sucked back up into your abdomen" and they might even come out your mouth - milktruck gets the credit for that one

 

[Redneck]

Quote from antincedo:

so if everyone thinks they are smarter then everyone else why aren't they moving the market?

given 90% lose money, how does that work?

Sir,

You must fancy me some sort of guru – to reiterate – I am a dumbass redneck

Ultimately you'll need to think this through – but to assist just a little

You say “why aren’t they moving the markets”

Have you ever tried herding cats – Well the same can be said for all the day traders in the world - all together they won’t move the market one iota


You say “so if everyone thinks they are smarter then everyone else”

Reread my response please


~90% fancies they are something – of this I am pretty certain

A few know what the need to know, however still fewer – like my sort if you wish – know they are dumber than dirt

But to be honest Sir – I like it that way.

Take Care

 

[nysestocks]

I better be careful or RT will give out to me

I want to ask a question!

Apart from me saying it - which is obvious - why do you think (if you do of course, if you don't then so be it) that I know something about trading, that other people do not know?

And, if I do, what difference does it really make to you?

I have already said that I will not mention the "real secret" - but I am not sure how many of you are aware that the "obvious" has been mentioned many times, indirectly, but still, many times.

Sometimes I think I am the idiot, but, you know what, it really does not bother me, and that should be "obvious" by now

 

[Redneck]

Quote from nysestocks:

Redneck trader and nysestocks both registered in Dec2008 - and both have about the same amount of posts!

Are they one and the same?

Now, just watch the skeptics sit up and take note

Yes all things are possible

However once upon a time - I was also an adolescent at recess