Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?
- Thread starter nysestocks
- Start date
nysestocks
Guest
Good money would be any profits over $100K.
Most traders who make this type of money get some silly idea that they know what they are doing, and you can guess what happens next!
People will sabotage themselves all of the time if they are unable to place a trade in exactly the same manner, for each and every trade!
OK, you and I are starting to get onto the same page when it comes to some things. Your statement above is why I started to become extremely systematic in my trading. I will be the first to admit I absolutely suck as a discretionary trader.
Are systems and automation, or just simply being extremely disciplined, part of your "obvious" theory?
I'm not trying to be an ass, like I may or may not have been last night.
Actually curious.
nysestocks
Guest
A load of mumbo jumbo.
I am getting a bit fed up having to explain the basics of gambling to everyone, and for some silly reason, everyone still seems to think that trading is like "other" normal things in life!
It is the exact opposite - and that is the reason why nearly everyone who tries to make money trading fail!
If you want to continue to look for silly analogies and stories about oceans and waves, college kids who wouldn't even know themselves if they looked in a mirror, expectancy, Level II and T&S, prop trading services and training, and all the other pits of endless rubbish that are posted on internet sites each and every second, then fine, but at least know that when you end up the same as everyone else, it is entirely your own fault for not spending the time to sit and seriously think about what it is you are trying to do!
I am really amazed at how many people can not even understand the very basics that are required to take money from other traders!
Our education system has done a far better job than I had initially thought!
nysestocks
Guest
I never hold a grudge against letters on a screen
While I can see and understand how some programs (whether it be C, API or even Excel) can execute trades for profit, a computer at the end of the day is just a big dumb box!
Garbage IN = Garbage OUT
So, to answer your question, I am not sure if the "obvious" can be automated, as it has never been tried, but when there is no need to automate it, why even think of doing it!!
Say it does work after many many hours of programming, and then some young wiz kid hacker gets in and downloads the programme, and before you know it the whole world has it!
Before long, the "obvious" will appear on internet sites and no doubt in many trading books as well, as soon as the real "experts" get their hands on it
Remember Mrs Boyd!
I don't stay in 'stupid' trades. I counter-trend swings long and short for 'winning' trades. And yes, I 'deserve' my million dollar bank and the 20k - 40k I make a month!
Love this market!
Well, I make money just about every day, so I must know something about "taking money" from others.
But I have to say your inclusion of "expectancy" in your last comment got me thinking, as expectancy is an assumption about the future based on the recent past. And since the markets are so dynamic in their behavior, we need to be much more dynamic in our thinking to adapt.
Am I getting warm?
nysestocks
Guest
Randomness and perception
"We do not come into this world with an innate sense of how the random part of
our world works. We talk about probabilities casually and think we understand.
When the weatherman forecasts 60% chance of rain today we do not
have a precise definition of what that means. Does it mean a 60% chance that it
will rain here at my office, or 60% chance of rain somewhere in the city? Does it
mean a 60% chance every part of the city will get at least a drop of rain, or that
each point in the city will get rain 60% of the time? Some of these possible
meanings may be absurd but the point is that we deal with statements like
these with only an intuitive sense of what they mean.
We mostly have unreliable notions and perhaps some wrong conclusions when it
comes to randomness in our lives. For instance, few of us know that if a group
of 25 randomly selected people are asked their birthday that the chance of at
least two of them having a birthday on the same day of the year is better than
50%. I met a man who knew all the odds of drawing various hands in poker.
When I told him this little known fact he was in disbelief and gave me 2 to 1
odds on a bet. The 14th person he queried for a birth date matched one of the
previous ones. He declined to repeat the bet.
A trader needs tools for finding what kind of results work now and are likely
work in the future. He would like to know what is more important, the probability
of success on a trade, or the average profit to risk ratio. He would like to
know what would happen if losers were exited early."
nysestocks
Guest
I will let you in on a little secret jn.
The ability of a trader to make "money" in the markets is very objective and subjective!
I make small money a lot of the time, and other traders probably make more money on one of their trades than I make on some trades, but the magical symbol is the X
There is a very old saying that should be observed for big profits, and that is,
100 pennies make a Pound