Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

[TommyHawk]

I will postulate 'Market Direction' = "The Obvious".
As to "why" it is not so obvious is due to Trend Relativity.
(MTFA) The current environment can just as accurately be
described as "down" or "up".
This is the phenomenon which engenders opportunity as
well as disaster. I can display a monthly chart with no more
difficulty than a 5s chart. When the "Not So Obvious" *first
begins* to become "The Obvious" *within its context*, my
ODDS of being able to *exploit* "The Obvious" go way up.
I may then decide whether BLASH/SHABL or BHASH/SLABL
is the appropriate strategy and if my threshold of pain
will permit me to allow for the necessary margin for error.
(e.g. SKF lately, whew)
This only works (for me) on those days when I am mentally,
emotionally and physically prepared to DO what needs to
be done. (my challenge) - When I AM in sinc, I cruise.

 

[MoneyMagnetDude]

Quote from nysestocks:



What do you do when a stock price is moving up and down?

There are couple options

1.) go to the next larger time frames until you dont see the ups and downs.
This is only meaningful if the range is small enough. If it is big enough, then it indicates something else

2.) look for the "abnormality" of the up/down pattern.

3.) as you indicated in 'C'

But in trading, time is of essence, you enter while the "thing" is happening, not after, not before.

Question for you nysestocks

a.) how do one know if the move is real or fake?

b.) what technique can one utilize to enter fast market-, because, most of the time the strong up/down moves will have many large price spreads one stack on top of the other.

Thanks and regards

 

[Rabbitone]

Quote from nysestocks:

Yes, all textbook stuff which is absolutely of no real value!

The exit is not the most important thing when trading, as most traders will try and tell you, but the entry is very important!

I might have written this somewhere before!

BLASH and SHABL about 90%

BHABH and SLABL about 10%

Do you know what this means?

Sorry but I don’t know what you mean. I tried for several hours to define a trading business plan from these statements. After many attempts I gave up. Then I had a great idea. I would talk to some one younger than me who better understood this type of business language. So I emailed my savvy nephew who is in high school. Here was his reply.

Yes, all textbook stuff which is absolutely of no real value!
He relied "every dude in his school says, Yah Man!”

The exit is not the most important thing when trading, as most traders will try and tell you, but the entry is very important!
He replied “Wow, trading has the same principle as they teach in sex ed class!”

BLASH and SHABL about 90%

BHABH and SLABL about 10%

He replied “I’m kind puzzled by these. The only one I know is the SHABL." He said he wants to kiss up to his hot English teacher and he would "use SHABL of Suck Hot A-- with Big Lips.” Sorry I couldn’t write what he actually said.

But the good news is if you teach the course at NYU he said he will sign up. Then we can all figure out what you wrote.

 

[Rabbitone]

Quote from nysestocks:

Just in case some people need to be reminded - post off topic and you will be asked to observe the site rules.

This is a very professional site, and I am sure that its owners have a keen interest in members using the site to educate themselves as best they can in relation to trading!

If idiots keep popping up their heads and disrupting worthwhile conversations, then they might need to be removed and placed where they rightly belong!

Then may be it is time for some of us who are “Idiots” to leave ET and find another forum where we have the freedom to discuss our trading ideas. If ET cannot handle dissent in its forums I doubt it will survive another year. This is the price of freedom; to give all a chance to have their say even if it means a small percentage of the population abuse the privilege. And it remains for those who are level headed to overlook these few responses so we all can gain from the majority of meaningful discussions. And most important each day I still remember my buddy’s in Vietnam who had their heads blown off so I can sit here and write. They paid the ultimate price for me and I take my freedom very seriously…

 

[jnbadger]

Quote from nysestocks:

Just in case some people need to be reminded - post off topic and you will be asked to observe the site rules.

This is a very professional site, and I am sure that its owners have a keen interest in members using the site to educate themselves as best they can in relation to trading!

If idiots keep popping up their heads and disrupting worthwhile conversations, then they might need to be removed and placed where they rightly belong!

I simply called you out.

How is that off topic?

I truly think that what may be obvious to you may be obvious to others as well, but not necessarily any kind of psychological epiphany.

 

[TommyHawk]

Quote from Rabbitone:

. And most important each day I still remember my buddy’s in Vietnam who had their heads blown off so I can sit here and write.

Non-Sequitur.
Proves you can't think.
(Off topic, sorry.)

 

[Rabbitone]

Quote from TommyHawk:

Non-Sequitur.
Proves you can't think.
(Off topic, sorry.)

You are right sir. About both of my previous notes. In the heat of the moment I did not use my head. I apologize and have learned another of life’s lessons. ...

 

[Redneck]

Quote from Rabbitone:

You are right sir. About both of my previous notes. In the heat of the moment I did not use my head. I apologize and have learned another of life’s lessons. ...

 

[Ansare]

Quote from Rabbitone:

Reading the comments on these forums is fascinating to me. There are so many unique individual traders each successful in their own way spouting their trading religion (that is what they worship in trading…including yours truly). Halleluiah!

All traders (whether they admit to it or not) are running a unique trading business. What works for one trader does not fit the plan of another. Yet I continue to see traders get extremely frustrated and angry when they see others present different ideas (which may be a brilliant concept in their style of trading). The condescending trader will go so far as call the other trader an…. Well I will leave that to your imagination.

Many of you are day traders, that’s great, keep it up. However, some like my self swing and position trade in the daily time frame (it works I’m retired). When it comes to applying a concept that a day trader abhors it may produce excellent results for me. The reverse is also true. So I try to keep and open mind.

What I enjoy about ET are the new ideas that allow me to stretch my systems to new vistas. I have added many great additions to my new systems because of what I have read here. I have learned about C# which is tough on an old COBOL programmer (old IBM language I coded in).

But the crux of the problem for ‘newbies’ is to find a method that works and one that they can tolerate through the bumps and grinds that always happen. Yet traders continue to fail every day. This happens because we fail to describe to ourselves what we are trying to accomplish and learn how to make corrections.

When you finally understand your own trading objectives and methods then you can begin to make additions and subtractions to your plan from other ET’ers that can make you more successful. I believe trading is like the businesses I ran for 37 years. If you fail to look at “lessons learned” you are doomed to repeat the errors.

Then there’s all of these touted authors. Only YOU know if Jessie Livermore, Van Tharp or Larry Williams is relevant. Are they good or bad? That’s not relevant. What is relevant is do they provide you with what you need to run your trading business. If they don’t toss it out.

And yes I have my own platitudes.

Knowledge is not king. It’s what you do with the knowledge that makes you king.

Then there’s attitude. I love it when I’m wrong and realize it. Then I got a chance to succeed.

If you can’t change the facts then bend the attitudes.

Well enough of my religion for now. In the next note I will go through Exodus…Well back I go to looking at my systems and pray they work…

Brilliant post. Thank you, sir.

 

[MoneyMagnetDude]

Hi nysestocks,

for BLASH, what constitutes LOW?

As a retail day trader, one seldomly be able to buy at the bottom of the day. So LOW will be a price based on the reference of a previously occurred price.
Or are you talking about the pivot of a pullback? or high of the previous bar ?
(if one waits for the price to be above certain price reference, such as high of the previous bar, it is really BHASH)
Or are you implying that there is another way to identify the LOW?

Thanks and regards