Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

[MandelbrotSet]

Quote from Ansare:

Brilliant post. Thank you, sir.

Yeah, I think it's a great post too.

Maybe RabbitOne should start his own thread.

 

[Ansare]

Quote from MandelbrotSet:

Yeah, I think it's a great post too.

Maybe RabbitOne should start his own thread.

Now *that* I could get into. RabbitOne, you into it or you playing too much golf??

 

[Rabbitone]

Quote from Ansare:

Now *that* I could get into. RabbitOne, you into it or you playing too much golf??

I thank all of you for your kind words. Tommorrow will be the start of the thread.

 

[Ansare]

Quote from Rabbitone:

I thank all of you for your kind words. Tommorrow will be the start of the thread.

That's outstanding, Rabbitone. Thank you.

 

[OzMega]

@nysestocks

Are you still getting what you want out of the market? It certainly appears so...
There are really only 2 things one needs to know about trading the markets, ...and they come from unusual places ...and are not so obvious.

"All warfare is based on deception."
----Sun Tzu, The Art of War

"There are two kinds of people in the world my friend, ...those with loaded guns, ....and those who dig."
-----Clint Eastwood

From these two pearls of wisdom all else can be derived.

Keep on digging nysestocks!

 

[NERVESASTEEL]

Quote from nysestocks:

This is one of the big misconceptions of trading!

You do not position yourself anywhere where you might drown!

Always keep one foot on dry land, just in case you might slip into the deep end that you could not see, unless you are a fish of course

Ha! I've learned a little and laughed a lot reading this thread. Yes, I guess I'm a fish that spends much of my time swimming in the deep end, but always hedged with a life preserver.

I do agree with you that trading reminds me of gambling, specifically ‘Blackjack’. Counting cards for instance is primarily about money management. Depending on the count, I may go 8x my minimum or take insurance, or hit a 14 etc. But most importantly, I don’t gamble with money I cannot afford to lose. That profoundly impacts my decision making.

I understand that we are all in this for the money. But it is THE FEAR OF LOOSING MONEY that so often interferes with our strategies and execution thereof. As was stated earlier in this thread, almost all trades will make you money if you have patience. Doubling down at a strategic point can help you make it back faster just as it can with Blackjack … but it will take an adjustment in the timeframe. Thus time vs. cost becomes a determining factor. Is there a better place for me to put my money during a given time frame, or do I truly believe this trade will eventually payoff within an acceptable time frame???

Eventually, unless you’re Short at a bottom, the market will come to you … like the ocean’s breaking wave. And your patience and faith will be rewarded!

And by the way, what did you mean by “OPPORTUNITY COST”?

 

[nysestocks]

Quote from TommyHawk:

I will postulate 'Market Direction' = "The Obvious".
As to "why" it is not so obvious is due to Trend Relativity.
(MTFA) The current environment can just as accurately be
described as "down" or "up".
This is the phenomenon which engenders opportunity as
well as disaster. I can display a monthly chart with no more
difficulty than a 5s chart. When the "Not So Obvious" *first
begins* to become "The Obvious" *within its context*, my
ODDS of being able to *exploit* "The Obvious" go way up.
I may then decide whether BLASH/SHABL or BHASH/SLABL
is the appropriate strategy and if my threshold of pain
will permit me to allow for the necessary margin for error.
(e.g. SKF lately, whew)
This only works (for me) on those days when I am mentally,
emotionally and physically prepared to DO what needs to
be done. (my challenge) - When I AM in sinc, I cruise.

TH, the only time you need to worry about your emotions is when you have made good money!

Your decision to place a trade should be the same each and every time you trade - the amount you place on each trade will depend on several things, including how much money you have available to you at the time of placement!

 

[nysestocks]

Quote from MoneyMagnetDude:

Hi nysestocks,

for BLASH, what constitutes LOW?

As a retail day trader, one seldomly be able to buy at the bottom of the day. So LOW will be a price based on the reference of a previously occurred price.
Or are you talking about the pivot of a pullback? or high of the previous bar ?
(if one waits for the price to be above certain price reference, such as high of the previous bar, it is really BHASH)
Or are you implying that there is another way to identify the LOW?

Thanks and regards

Buy Low does not mean Buying The Low point of a swing!

If I wanted to imply that then I would have said BSLASH

Another big misconception held by the majority of traders!

 

[jnbadger]

Quote from nysestocks:

TH, the only time you need to worry about your emotions are when you have made good money!

Your decision to place a trade should be the same each and every time you trade - the amount you place on each trade will depend on several things, including how much money you have available to you at the time of placement!

Can't disagree with any of that, but "good money" is very vague. It varies per person when it comes to one particular trade, as well as a years worth of trades.

People will sabotage themselves over multiple timeframes.

(Trying to be civil, here)

 

[nysestocks]

Quote from NERVESASTEEL:

Ha! I've learned a little and laughed a lot reading this thread. Yes, I guess I'm a fish that spends much of my time swimming in the deep end, but always hedged with a life preserver.

I do agree with you that trading reminds me of gambling, specifically ‘Blackjack’. Counting cards for instance is primarily about money management. Depending on the count, I may go 8x my minimum or take insurance, or hit a 14 etc. But most importantly, I don’t gamble with money I cannot afford to lose. That profoundly impacts my decision making.

I understand that we are all in this for the money. But it is THE FEAR OF LOOSING MONEY that so often interferes with our strategies and execution thereof. As was stated earlier in this thread, almost all trades will make you money if you have patience. Doubling down at a strategic point can help you make it back faster just as it can with Blackjack … but it will take an adjustment in the timeframe. Thus time vs. cost becomes a determining factor. Is there a better place for me to put my money during a given time frame, or do I truly believe this trade will eventually payoff within an acceptable time frame???

Eventually, unless you’re Short at a bottom, the market will come to you … like the ocean’s breaking wave. And your patience and faith will be rewarded!

And by the way, what did you mean by “OPPORTUNITY COST”?

If you are stupid enough to stay in a losing trade, then you will get exactly what you deserve!