Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

There are limits to the obvious, because the real market is not like a boxing match where you only have one opponent to deal with. It's more like a world war getting ramped up, because as a soon as you think you have your opponent figured out, another enters the arena after studying you for some time and throws up a completely different set of conditions...... usually after you begin doing the same things over and over (because they were working for awhile)
 
I appreciate that if too many people discovered this "obvious" then that's no use to the big boys. They can't have too many other people knowing their intricate plans..they got big orders to fill.

What I took from "the obvious" was that it must be something that's clearly visible on charts....probably on all timeframes.. and any date in chart history... have I got that wrong? If my chart opponent keeps evolving then the obvious which was obvious when this thread started over a decade ago will be nullified by now?

Wide Tailz..would you say you had discovered the obvious as alluded to in this thread? And if you have...would call call it more of an ever-changing variable than a constant?
 
There is really only one basic psychology in short term trading and it's greed and fear. The obvious is this in chart form. And it's obvious that if you can wait until the muppets are obliterated before getting in, you stand a better chance of avoiding being one of them since "the game" is to fill those huge orders as you said, without being picked off by a pack of retail traders. I was doing great with my own version of "the obvious" until I posted about it, then the big boyz (and you know they read Elite Trader) started switching up the pattern. This is why trend following is really hard now, that Covel guy wrote a book about it and there are too many retail traders using it. I went into hiding for awhile, and now I'm just trading fundamentals. If you know what to look for, this too is extremely obvious.....
 
The market has become much more efficient since Covel’s time. Traditional trend following no longer works. Nowadays it’s more like momentum riding.

As long as price doesn’t move randomly forever sometimes it has to be obvious. The key is how to detect and exploit that “obvious”.
 
When The Obvious Not So Obvious
https://www.dogpile.com/serp?qc=images&q=When+The+Obvious+Not+So+Obvious

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