Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

Howdy All,

I hope we’ve been able to stimulate thoughts and ideas – and maybe make you laugh and think a little


So my last thoughts……

Never be afraid to ask why – or why not

Never be afraid to wonder

Never be afraid to try

Never be afraid to fail

Never be afraid to risk and lose

Never be afraid to risk and win

Never be afraid to take and idea or thought (from anyone, anywhere or anyplace), and turn it into your own

Never be afraid to take ownership, accountability and responsibility – of everything you do.

Never be afraid to work your ass off for the things you really want…

Never ever allow anyone else to steal your dreams and hopes, or keep you from your goals…

Never be afraid to laugh at yourself – it’ll keep you sane

Listen and trust yourself first – and all others second – if at all

There are millions of gurus in the world – ignore them all – and become a master of your self, your actions, your trading, your success.



Remember

To figure out if price is going higher or lower – does not take rocket science

To enter and exit correctly – You just need clear eyes and backbone.. (Call it “no opinion” and “resolve” if you wish).

Because

The more work you put into building a system, finding an indicator, or researching a stock, the more you’ll be married to each trade – (as in damn it… I put in the work, I am not dumb.. This trade has just got to go my way) ..

Forget it all and just trade it – and come what may – exit the position – as appropriate/ when appropriate – (win, lose, or draw)..


Always protect you capital first, make money second…


Trading = 95% - 97% mental, 3% - 5% physical – PERIOD….


Always – Be open to learning anything from anyone – but also remember to always rely on your self ultimately




Aside
Someone PM’d me and asked if I learned anything from NY – my answer – Most certainly

Talking to NY is like hearing my thoughts – recited back to me from another - how could I not learn something… It helped clarify me mentally more than words could ever express

I recently received the ultimate compliment (ultimate to me anyway) from Rabbitone in another thread. – When he stated my thoughts were simple, pure, and direct (what more is necessary to trade successfully)

I was truly humbled and honored by Rabbitone’s remarks



Finally

I joined here with the sole intention of paying it forward – the very best I could.

And with the help of NY – I truly believe I have done that…


I’ll be around from time to time – but not as much – as life is also calling me



Yea I know none of this rhymes… but wadda expect – from a dumbass redneck) :)


Much Joy and Success to each of you

RN
 
As this thread comes to an end I'd like to say thanks to all those people who participated in a constructive way.

No easy answers were given in this thread, and that was its greatest strength. For me this thread provided confirmation, confusion, enlightenment and bewilderment in equal measure. But the most important thing it did was to make take an even bigger step back than I had already done, and really examine what the game of trading is all about.

I hope others come across this thread in the future and take the time to really examine the underlying themes that were discussed here.

Good luck to all of you - except those of you who used to take my money! :D

All the best
 
Well lets get on with the not so obvious. Some walk the talk instea of vice wersa.

Here are some high velocity money charts for tape reading.

first chart shows the panels used.

Second chart shows the timing of th trade shown and why each step is done

Third chart just focuses on the step 1 for a while to show about 10 trades that are precision using the actions of smart money relative to the premium.

OTR stands for One Tick Range. Here you see how the YM leads the ES.

The leading/lagging relationship of several panels is shown. ES price is last. So the six things that lead ES price are shown in the order from 1 to 6.

All of the narrative is happening on one bar (53) At 1:52 in the pm

As you can see few people can set up a screen this way to see the market. Why? Because you have to use deeds from multiple suppliers. Second you have to add panels to the data stream to get visuals that can be read in a Flash which is 10 to 100 milliseconds and not a NY minute as seen for a lot of pages.

speaking of rhymes that whine. These guys are pooped out saying nothing by having made an effort for a few days. This is the real poetry of the markets.

Tax you brains to find out that these guys have never seen the market. You have to have your screens set up to read the market BEFORE a TURN and DURING a TURN and AFTER a TURN.
 
The first one shows a tape reading cluster in modern times.

I had the ggod luck to start trading in 1957, so the ticker tape was the best thing going then. It is like streaming data today and Tape reading was just something that turns out to be easy to do for people whose minds are developed.

Today, there is a lot of data and to trade to make high velocity money, it becomes especially easy.

The panels that make it quite simple are shown by name in this post. In the next post, you will be seeing a snapshot of a screen that shows the eye movement to catch a turn more or less perfectly.

attachment.php


Note Well: people who are not able to trade in a refined way like tape reading are stuck with pivot points and Support and Resistance and fibs and envelopes, etc.... they have simply screwed up their minds inductively and are permanently SOL...
 
Here is an actual snapshot. Bar 53 at 1:52 in the PM.

There is a numberd list. follow the numbers to see how a person's eyes keep track of the tape.

Here you see that the trade (shown in pink) as a vertical line. It is easy to see that the snapshot was taken just after the person being mentored pulled the trigger on the date and time shown.

The snap shot was annotated in paint as part of the debriefing.

Step one is a panel that shows the premium. It shows the smart money trading ahead of the herd. What you see is a stetch which for the offset of the premium in those days was the smart money going long.

You see two T&S panels and the DOM panel and two OTR charts. the top OTR chart leads the bottom OTR chart. You watch the leading chart and trade the lagging chart.

Today tape reading has a lot of signals and it is very relaxed and precision.

attachment.php


Here you see in something like slow motion a chain of events that always occurs. The events are:

1. the smart money stretches the premium (this panel is available in script under my name as stretch/squeese in a few places).

2. the DOM has a script attached to it that shows stalactites and the limiting value down is called a "WALL" that cannot be breached before the market eats up the other side of the bid/ask. the minority always controls and the large wall of orders never gets filled as the market comes to the wall and walks away form it.

3. Four games are played that show on the DOM and the two T&S columns. the key players have "tells" as well. It is fun to watch them and log the game at hand as you trade. By seeing the games, you then glance at the OTR charts where YM leads ES.

4. On the YM OTR, you see a bottom composes of 6 swings on two pair. The ES followed with an oddharmonic lagging turn. Hitting T is easy on platforms these days since you have the market reversal order or partial market orders line up to bag the T for each. you never show your hand ahead and you are what eats the guys facing you to the vanishing point and the price moves with your new position.

5 and 6 confirm you hit the turn. the trend is stair stepping and B2B means the non dominant tape has turned into a dominant tape long.

On the next post you see the S/S panel and there are many "tells" across the panel which is the fastest moving panel of the display. For a three points range on ES over a while (over an hour, say), you can do reversal trades to pull over 11 poiints in that time. This is not chicken scalping trading. In tape reading by experts, you are in the market all of the time.
 
Here is the premium panel that portrays the smart money moves. This is not found on retail or pro platforms. But is announced pre open each day at indexarb.com. You have to adjust for drift as day goes by snce that website does not have the capability.

As you see several signals and changing contexts are showing.

Just read it from left to right. The panel keeps shifting to the right as the future comes into the present.

attachment.php


The things you watch are volatility compression followed by volatility expansion. This is centering in price then moving price to str or squ.

You see the shifts from red to black (long) and the shifts from black to red (short).


The thick and thin on the bars means somthing visa vis volume. The panel's math isarchived in wealthlab and the Hershey script thread.

pepe did some nice panels on the DOM and non stationary window values rates of change.

None of this is used in the Cash Cow basic which is indicator and volume only based (price is not used in the code.)


You see sustained holds as well.

And you see premium drift. Real drift is reset to new premium BEFORE the BOTS and ALGOS do the reversion which kills volatility.

All of what is called tape reading is much finer than bar analysis and what is now called PA.

To do it well takes drills and usually mentoring for a week or so and after a person has the P, V relation down as an automatic fully mind differentiated automatic habit.

a few people make a great deal of money and rarely are upside down. these people trade on a level that popping on the wrong side of the market for a moment is just slowing down profit taking and being far away from a draw down.

Tape reading does not have draw downs at all.
 
Here is a trade not taken by the beginners of this thread.

To take it you can "read the tape" as shown above.

To get to "read the tape", you get in the ball park by using volume and indicators if you wish.



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Quote from PointOne:

Jack
how did this automatic system suppress the short signal which may be generated by the fast stoch and volume (see circled area in the attachment)? I note that the slow stoch had made it all the way across and the MACD had crossed over above zero.
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Per your Q, a chart is posted for the interval of your circle.

Four signals appeared and they related to other than the "channel" level of the "basic" Cash Cow ATS.

As shown signals do not an ATS make. Raw Information comes into an ATS and several themes result: The carrier, bells and whistles to create parallel degrees of freedon, the filters to steer on the non stationary window main event under way, gates to narrow the steering to a minimum number of degrees for sufficiency to give certainty, and decisions to go to output actions or prevent any outputs to the execution platform.

We have over the five bars, 19 status information elements and four signals. And a completed ATS routine that Brought specific closure and a new status within each bar.

Your conclusion about what happened over the interval is RIGHT ON AND VERY VERY EXCELLENT!!!!!

HOW is the query. Status is used in two ways. And status is like a wall on two levels. One is an inner wall that keeps the profit segment rolling along. It is interrupted by signals relative to end effects of profit segments. And it is known that, deductively, an end of one segment is the beginning of another segment.

The outer second part is the housekeeping with regard to being in the trading fractal and NOT doing anything messy like jumping fractals.

All of induction is not fractal sensitive since it deals in non theoretical logic that is devoted to statisticulating with raw data and Craying it to death as fast as possble and sprurting in as low a latency manner as possible.

Our illustration is making 50 points a contract for up to non partial fills of 500 contracts. Soften it to 10 actions with 400 contracts and multiply by 50 and 50 to come up with the extraction for the day. The number is 100 and four zeros after 100. Two commas are required.

HOW is a million dollar question and you asked it and two walls achieved your conclusion of what. As you see there are no loose ends or uncertainty since the status (19 info status shots) is determined robustly as they say. The four lousy signals did not apply to trading on the channel fractal, so they were walled out.

Cash Cow Basic will go to Cash Cow Basic Supreme then cash cow intermediate (traverse trading) and finally cash cow expert (tape trading).

Basic is around 2 to 3 times ATR as you see,

Supreme will take the flutter out One in staed of threse rversals at channel overlap beginning 10 becomes 6 which is within Basic's 4 to 7 trades.

Intermediate goes up to 15 trades and expert is 20 to 40 as expected.

attachment.php
 
Quote from ScoobyStoo:

As this thread comes to an end I'd like to say thanks to all those people who participated in a constructive way.

No easy answers were given in this thread, and that was its greatest strength. For me this thread provided confirmation, confusion, enlightenment and bewilderment in equal measure. But the most important thing it did was to make take an even bigger step back than I had already done, and really examine what the game of trading is all about.

I hope others come across this thread in the future and take the time to really examine the underlying themes that were discussed here.

Good luck to all of you - except those of you who used to take my money! :D

All the best
More...

Agreed. Thx to NY and those like yourself. I am not as sharp as some have been but at least I have started to think differently.
 
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