Why I remain BEARish despite fed pump April 9th

Whynottrade said:
In my reading fundamentals are also not that far off from technicals.

Assume two quarters of US economy's free cash flow is completely removed. Now take any DCF model and remove first two quarters' free cash flow. How much does the valuation change?. Then why the panic? Have been selling option premiums at this level with a slight bearish bias , will go bearish another 100-200 rise in SP500 and bullish 500 pts lower. Very good environment for trading.
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https://www.marketwatch.com/story/t...500-at-35-overvalued-2020-04-13?mod=home-page

The data/iassumptions in the article estimates a fair value consistent to a range of 2500-3000 for SP500. Incredible gymnastics they had to do to come up with a negative headline from the base data.
 
NY_HOOD said:
Kcalhoun
Stay the course, this is worse than 2008. This cannot be quanified becaus no one knows when this will end. Consumer confidence wilk be shot for a while and unemployment will remain high for a while unless there is a vaccine or a very good treatment.
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You trade on news and fundamentals. Market trades on pump and dump mechanism. As of now... The pump just started last week.... More upside ahead
 
NY_HOOD said:
Kcalhoun
Stay the course, this is worse than 2008. This cannot be quanified becaus no one knows when this will end. Consumer confidence wilk be shot for a while and unemployment will remain high for a while unless there is a vaccine or a very good treatment.
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Doesn't matter when the Fed is buying everything and the market only cares about liquidity (and fundamentals are pointless). Does it?
 
I lost several k trying to bottomfish inverses the last couple weeks, now I'm back in.

Today I bought SDOW FAZ TVIX TZA SOXS VXX SPXS .... anyone else trading them?

Bears are back - yay!
 
KCalhoun said:
I lost several k trying to bottomfish inverses the last couple weeks, now I'm back in.

Today I bought SDOW FAZ TVIX TZA SOXS VXX SPXS .... anyone else trading them?

Bears are back - yay!
More...
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Yes; TWM is above 200dma.
Ive made more on DDM,lately,but because i scaled in more. I dont trade DDM much/ Dow derivative LOL. DDM can get strong in MAR, APR...........................................................
NoT sure why the panic buy on bottled water?? Most all USA has good/ great water??:D:D:D:D:D:D:D
 
Tsing Tao said:
Doesn't matter when the Fed is buying everything and the market only cares about liquidity (and fundamentals are pointless). Does it?
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Fundamentals matter in the end+ before the end.
Good thing for the bulls, most companies are run better BA, DAL.

Fundamentals matter before the end............................................................................................................ ERX, has never traded like QQQ SPY, UPRO or TWM
 
KCalhoun said:
I lost several k trying to bottomfish inverses the last couple weeks, now I'm back in.

Today I bought SDOW FAZ TVIX TZA SOXS VXX SPXS .... anyone else trading them?

Bears are back - yay!
More...


You are still in the inverses???
 
Not much, I'm stubborn but not stupid lol.... price action is all that matters..

I stopped out of most inverses aftermarket and bought some SPXL GILD. A meaningful cv med headline is valid data, so I took action.

I will re-enter inverses if they get buying later. I'm still up on the year, though I gave back some profits trying to bottomfish inverses recently. It's all about risk management.... I'm always ready to exit losing positions when price action proves me wrong.

I'm a bit frustrated since common sense says 20million unemployed and global pandemic and earnings misses, you'd think would tank markets bigtime. But price action is king, so I've gotta eat humble pie.

#grumpybear
 
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