Why I remain BEARish despite fed pump April 9th

DCF on what? You can't run that on an index. I mean you can... but its one stock at a time.
So.... lets see some numbers or some data to back up what you said. Because other than that... that just sounds like someone throwing out some bs to me. I ain't saying you're wrong brother... but back it up, cause the way you wrote that is bullshit pal. Some of us have been students of this game for quite awhile. Your post reeks of bullshit. From start to finish.

Its crap like this, out of nowhere.... that convinces me I am 100% right.

We're going down.
 
DCF on what? You can't run that on an index. I mean you can... but its one stock at a time.
So.... lets see some numbers or some data to back up what you said. Because other than that... that just sounds like someone throwing out some bs to me. I ain't saying you're wrong brother... but back it up, cause the way you wrote that is bullshit pal. Some of us have been students of this game for quite awhile. Your post reeks of bullshit. From start to finish.
But he's got 4 likes out of 5 posts - he must be right! :finger:
Hehehe :)
 
Its crap like this, out of nowhere.... that convinces me I am 100% right.

We're going down.
index.jpg
 
DCF = CF1/(1+r)1 + CF2/(1+r)2 + CFn/(1+r)n


where:

  • CF = the cash flow for the given year. CF1 is for year one, CF2 is for year two, CFn is for additional years
  • r = the discount rate
____________________

Yeah, apply this to Apple, Amazon, and CRM.... and then apply it to Ford, 3M, and Home Depot. Especially when they've all come out and said they will be giving no forward guidance.

Then do it for 494 more stocks. Average out the difference and post on ET like you know wtf you're talking about.

....Its shit like this.... that needs nipped in the f'ing bud.
Christ almighty. At least B1 has been here awhile and has a modicum of respect in some circles at least.
 
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NO

The elephant in the room is earnings through Q2. And there's another NASTY, NASTY elephant in the room nobody has considered...Now that Americans are on the dole and safe for three months, they simply will be LAZY in trying to get back to work. The thought of July going back to ATH is premature in my mind.

Q2 is priced in. That's why we dropped from 29.5k to 18.5k in a few weeks. There is no big surprise with Q2.

I think most of us have considered the ramifications of Americans on the dole. But this can only play out one way. Employers raising wages to entice workers back to work. I think many Americans will get off the dole early though knowing they don't want to compete with 10 million other people looking for work when the 4 months of unemployment is up. Especially when all the people who were already out of work and are not eligible for unemployment realize they can slip into other peoples old jobs while they're being lazy.

I always read these milennials over on reddit bitching about how hard it is to get a job because of the competition, but as soon as quarantine is up, it's going to be easy af for them to get in when the people on the dole are enjoying their vacation.
 
Q2 is priced in. That's why we dropped from 29.5k to 18.5k in a few weeks. There is no big surprise with Q2.

I think most of us have considered the ramifications of Americans on the dole. But this can only play out one way. Employers raising wages to entice workers back to work. I think many Americans will get off the dole early though knowing they don't want to compete with 10 million other people looking for work when the 4 months of unemployment is up. Especially when all the people who were already out of work and are not eligible for unemployment realize they can slip into other peoples old jobs while they're being lazy.

I always read these milennials over on reddit bitching about how hard it is to get a job because of the competition, but as soon as quarantine is up, it's going to be easy af for them to get in when the people on the dole are enjoying their vacation.

All bets are off until there's a real vaccine in the works and being tested. When that happens, we can chat.
Until then... case closed.
 
All bets are off until there's a real vaccine in the works and being tested. When that happens, we can chat.
Until then... case closed.

Or until the mass antibody tests start and we find out we all got covid-19 back in the fall of 2019. They've already tested 3,000 people in SF (results still pending). They've done other small tests like that in Germany and found 14% of the population had CV antibodies.

Imagine finding out that everyone on the west coast got CV back in the fall and herd immunity has been responsible for low cases there.
 
In my reading fundamentals are also not that far off from technicals.

Assume two quarters of US economy's free cash flow is completely removed. Now take any DCF model and remove first two quarters' free cash flow. How much does the valuation change?. Then why the panic? Have been selling option premiums at this level with a slight bearish bias , will go bearish another 100-200 rise in SP500 and bullish 500 pts lower. Very good environment for trading.
Hello Whynottrade,

Whatever you do, make sure you use a stop loss and don't be afraid to be wrong.

I went short with SPY a week ago and loss about $150. It was a decent bet/trade.

It is a good environment for those people who know how to trade.

Alot of people will lose alot of money seeking bragging rights and trying to hit a home runs to go brag to friends and co-workers.
 
The truth is none of us knows what the fxck is gonna happen next.

What we do have control over is trade management, stops, probabilities, known/proven/tested edge, size and timing... that's all we've got.

But debating up vs down never gets tired on a trading forum lol

You right. I updated something you for got to add.

I agree with everything else. It is indeed a great conversatioin.
 
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