Why has the turtle trend-following system stop working?

[Mtrader]

Interesting...

I really think that you have to use a strategy that fits current market conditions to make money in the markets. Long term trend following is just too slow to adapt. I understand what kut2k2 says about changing parameters, but i still think that is too slow to do, given that LTTF is by nature longer term.

You should delete the words "long term". Watch how the behaviour of the S&P changed. The last 15 years we had 2 huge drawdowns within 10 years. That never happened before. It took more than 8 years to make a new high after 2000, and only a few weeks later this position went in losses again with a drawdown of around 50%. It took 13 years after the high of 2000 before we really went higher. Long term trend following did not perform anything at all in these periods.

 

[marketsurfer]

Mr Covel,

I never heard about you nor about your book. Probably because I don't live in the US. But also because I don't like reading books about investing or trading. It pollutes my way of thinking. I know a few companies in London who, for the same reason, never take traders with experience. They want to start with a blank sheet and form them as they want them to be.

When I read your title it gives me an extra reason not to buy or read your book.
This reason is the title: "How 23 Novice Investors Became Overnight Millionaires."
Did 23 novice investors really become millionaire overnight? I did not read your book, but I am sure they did not.
I expect these kind of titles from some UK (garbage) newspapers that need this kind of statements, besides of putting naked girls on page 6, to attrack readers. Readers who are attracked by the title not by the content. And attrackted by page 6 of course.

I don't say that the content of your book is not good (because I never read it), but the people who bought your book based on that title, and that is the reason why the title it there, will be probably disappointed. None of them will be millionaires the day after reading your book.

I hear many times about people making crazy multi million dollar claims. The title you used has some potential I think.

For the good understanding: I believe and use trendfollowing. To me the best way to survive. I don't want to fight your vision. But NOBODY can teach somebody to become a succesful investor or trader in 24 hours or even shorter, as overnight is only 8-12 hours.

I think there is a language interpretation issue here.

Fact 1 "Overnight" is not literal and commonly used to mean short term.

Fact 2. Covels book referenced by you is proven history. It really did happened and is mostly verified. The book tells the story of these people and how they did it.


Surf

 

[Visaria]

Mtrader, are you a short term trend follower?

 

[Mtrader]

Fact 2. Covels book referenced by you is proven history. It really did happened and is mostly verified. The book tells the story of these people and how they did it.

I NEVER told these stories are not true, I just told that these were 23 amongst maybe 500 or more candidates. They were SELECTED, which means that not everybody or rather almost NOBODY fitted the required qualifications. In other words: what these 23 did cannot lead to the automatical reflection that EVERYBODY can do this.

It is like telling daytrading is profitable. There also the majority will no succeed. But in that case you take the complete opposite vision.

 

[kut2k2]

No markets trend forever? No kidding. What's the point?

Why has Winton, Aspect, TransTrend, CFM, ISAM, Campbell, DUNN, etc. continued to excel? Find fault with JWH, fair enough, but to imply trend following has stopped due to his case is idiotic.

Geez, dude, how dense are you? It's obvious I was talking about SAR, not TF in general. The claim was that Henry's strategy stopped working and I proposed that if indeed he was using SAR, that would explain what happened. No way could anybody interpret that as criticism of all TF unless he (i.e., you) was pushing an agenda.

Still pretending to be an expert on TF, are you?

 

[Visaria]

kut2k2, just ignore Covel. He's selling something that he doesn't actually believe in. Sort of like a used car salesman.

 

[marketsurfer]

I NEVER told these stories are not true, I just told that these were 23 amongst maybe 500 or more candidates. They were SELECTED, which means that not everybody or rather almost NOBODY fitted the required qualifications. In other words: what these 23 did cannot lead to the automatical reflection that EVERYBODY can do this.

It is like telling daytrading is profitable. There also the majority will no succeed. But in that case you take the complete opposite vision.

Ok fair enough--- and i agree with you that it is book selling hyperbole.

Do u know that the publisher ( not the author) chooses the cover and the verbiage? Just saying

 

[kut2k2]

kut2k2, just ignore Covel. He's selling something that he doesn't actually believe in. Sort of like a used car salesman.

Even worse, he's selling something he doesn't truly understand.

 

[MrBrowser]

something he doesn't truly understand.

I guess that's a matter of opinion. I've read most of his books and don't recall many strategy specifics, but he did write a short piece "Trade trends successfully, here’s how" some years ago.

 

[Visaria]

MrBrowser, he says that losing half your money is "useful". Presumably losing all your money is very "useful". What can you say to some one who says that?