Why has the turtle trend-following system stop working?

Money Trust said:
How can trend following "not work" when markets do in fact trend? The guys who call themselves trend followers may not be the ones making impressive returns, but someone somewhere is doing just that. Just because we don't know who they are doesn't mean they don't exist.
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The best players are well known: Across my books.
 
Visaria said:
Markets trend in all time frames. In fact, if you make money on a directional trade, by definition, you were in the correct trend for the time you were in the trade. If you lose, you were trading counter trend for the time you were in the trade.

Therefore, the best and most risk free way to make money is to enter a trend early as possible which is just as it is changing, then ride it and then exit when the trend changes again i.e. pick the top and bottom. This is of course impossible to do all the time.

So the trend followers say, well we can't pick the tops and bottoms consistently, so we'll do the next best thing and identify a trend once it has started and then climb aboard, ride it and either exit before the trend ends or just after it ends. So they develop methods of identifying a trend.

The problem is with these methods. If the method chosen fits with the current market reality, then great, that trend follower will make a lot of money. If however it does not match then, the trend follower will struggle.

Unfortunately market realities change. If the trend follower does not adapt his method to the current market reality quickly enough, he is toast. That is why the turtle trend following system doesn't 'work' anymore. It just hasn't adapted to current market reality.
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A post that shows zero understanding of trend following. Perhaps, below zero understanding.
 
Was gonna reply, but just a waste of time.

Anyone interested in trend following (or just trading in general), just read Curtis Faith's The Way of the Turtle. Brilliant book, Van Tharp says it's one of the 5 best books on trading ever written. Probably about $10 on amazon.

Please don't waste THOUSANDS of dollars with Mike Covel.

Peace.

Vis
 
Visaria said:
Anyone interested in trend following (or just trading in general), just read Curtis Faith's The Way of the Turtle.
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Curtis Faith is currently in jail. Perhaps, something was left out of the book.
 
Probably somewhere you should be...ah, the injustices of the world.

I repeat, anyone interested in trend following (or just trading in general), just read Curtis Faith's The Way of the Turtle. Brilliant book, Van Tharp says it's one of the 5 best books on trading ever written. Probably about $10 on amazon.

Please don't waste THOUSANDS of dollars with Mike Covel.

Peace.

Vis
 
Visaria said:
Brilliant book, Van Tharp says it's one of the 5 best books on trading ever written.
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It is unfortunate that a good guy, Van, has his name attached to a con:

curtis_michael_faith_arrest.JPG
 
HomelyWizzard said:
Covel why don't you go and have some conjugal visit with him,
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ROFL! I laughed out aloud when i read that!

FYI, Covel doesn't trade, whether it be trend following or mean reversion. He doesn't even put any money into any trend following funds. He's like the guy who sells picks and shovels to the gold miners in the gold rush, he doesn't get his hands dirty!

Faith, otoh, was the best performing turtle trader. After the program was disbanded, he was bored with trading and started up some software companies.
 
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