Why has the turtle trend-following system stop working?

marketsurfer said:
What's the difference between trend following and buying/selling/hoping with stops?

Seems to me trend following is a marketing term for buying or selling then hoping with money management added. No?

surf
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Historical reference on trend following term attached.

Trend following is just a system: entries/exits/money management/portfolio selection.

The S&P is a system too, but with as you point out no exits or money management.
 

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justrading said:
Some observations.

1) you delete your posts as fast as you post them. I get the email alert and then when I click on it, find nothing.
2) you edit posts all too frequently. End result is what we read is not your final post, unless someone else happens to quote it.

Suggestion: modern version, engage brain before using keyboard/keypad.
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Editing of posts is possible only for a brief period after initial posting. Surf's edits shouldn't concern you unless you're hovering over your keyboard waiting to flame him... Try allowing an hour or two of breathing room, and your "problem" will be solved. Believe me, the world can live without your "insights" for a couple hours...
 
debitspread said:
Editing of posts is possible only for a brief period after initial posting. Surf's edits shouldn't concern you unless you're hovering over your keyboard waiting to flame him... Try allowing an hour or two of breathing room, and your "problem" will be solved.
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Don't be presumptuous that I have any need to flame him. If I'm on the iPad and the email alert comes in, I'll respond promptly, otherwise it's when I see it which could even be the next day. In any case, after the massive edit of #168 which I quoted in #169, I've decided to not respond immediately any more. He just cannot make up his mind what he wants to say, so I might as well wait until he's done thinking.
 
qxr1011 said:
nope
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Perhaps, you are making some other point, but for those out there that think they only need themselves, great insights:

In conversation over the week-end at the Los Angeles Times Festival of Books, American virologist David Baltimore, who won the Nobel Prize for Medicine in 1975 for his work on the genetic mechanisms of viruses, commented that over the years (and especially while he was president of CalTech) he had received many manuscripts claiming to have solved some great scientific problem or to have overthrown the existing scientific paradigm to provide some grand theory of everything. Most prominent scientists have drawers full of similar submissions, almost always from people who work alone and outside of the scientific community.

Unfortunately, none of these offerings has done anything remotely close to what was claimed, and Dr. Baltimore offered some fascinating insight into why he thinks that’s so. At its best, he noted, good science is a collaborative, community effort. On the other hand, crackpots work alone.

I suspect that this idea is as true in our business as it is in science generally. Working collaboratively and in community lessens the likelihood that our work will be fraught with the bias to which we are so prone and increases the likelihood that all analysis and any conclusions drawn therefrom will be questioned, checked and tested.
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Bottom line, good strategy has a community of those that know. And succinctly:

"It is necessary for us to learn from others' mistakes. You will not live long enough to make them all yourself."
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