Why has the turtle trend-following system stop working?

[Mtrader]

The real question is "HOW do u influence the outcome by timing?" You have no idea how the outcome will be influenced since u don't know what will happen next. Your example has already happened, so its irrelevant to reality.

Of course I have an idea about the outcome, my account shows that I am right or wrong. Every 24 hours I receive the results of my influence on the outcome from my broker. That's (sometimes hard) reality.

Past proofed already that you have no clue about how to influence the outcome by timing. But it is not because you cannot, the world cannot. To make that link you should be God.

 

[Trend Following]

the same way as all conclusions drawn in this life - personal experience

No other 3rd party experiences relevant to you?

 

[Trend Following]

Picking another moment to enter a trade will always give another result in the end, except if by coincidence the price would be exactly the same. This proofs that theoretically a trader can influence the result. I write clearly CAN. You say it is impossible.
It shows that flipping coins is different from trading. So your statement is completely wrong.

If you flip a coin now or in 1 hour or in 1 week, the result will be the same.
If you enter a trade now or in 1 hour or in 1 week, the result will be NOT the same.

I cannot help it that you cannot understand this. Maybe you were not in the first row when God distributed skill to people. I will try to put my logic in a very simple , easy to understand sample:

We both can choose when to buy, 1 time only, the ES, but we should sell it again at 16:00
According to you nobody can influence the result.

• I buy at 8:30 when price is 2000 because I think the price is low and will go up.
• You buy at 10:30 when the price is at 2002.
• We sell at 16:00 and price is at 2007. I made 7 points profit, you made 5 points profit. So my decision to buy at 8:30 influenced the result because I made 2 points more than you. So I did influence the result.

Now we will flip the coin. We will flip it 1 time and we both can choose when: 8:30 or 10:30, or even 16:00
No matter when we flip the coin the result will always be the same. So here you cannot influence the result. My choice of timing will give the same result as your choice of timing. Time cannot change the probabilities.

I know it will still be impossible for you to understand, but at least other people reading this might understand it.

But for other people reading, this has nothing to do with trend following.

 

[marketsurfer]

Picking another moment to enter a trade will always give another result in the end, except if by coincidence the price would be exactly the same. This proofs that theoretically a trader can influence the result. I write clearly CAN. You say it is impossible.
It shows that flipping coins is different from trading. So your statement is completely wrong.

If you flip a coin now or in 1 hour or in 1 week, the result will be the same.
If you enter a trade now or in 1 hour or in 1 week, the result will be NOT the same.

I cannot help it that you cannot understand this. Maybe you were not in the first row when God distributed skill to people. I will try to put my logic in a very simple , easy to understand sample:

We both can choose when to buy, 1 time only, the ES, but we should sell it again at 16:00
According to you nobody can influence the result.

• I buy at 8:30 when price is 2000 because I think the price is low and will go up.
• You buy at 10:30 when the price is at 2002.
• We sell at 16:00 and price is at 2007. I made 7 points profit, you made 5 points profit. So my decision to buy at 8:30 influenced the result because I made 2 points more than you. So I did influence the result.

Now we will flip the coin. We will flip it 1 time and we both can choose when: 8:30 or 10:30, or even 16:00
No matter when we flip the coin the result will always be the same. So here you cannot influence the result. My choice of timing will give the same result as your choice of timing. Time cannot change the probabilities.

I know it will still be impossible for you to understand, but at least other people reading this might understand it.

Ok.-- that makes sense in and of itself. But i still don't understand your point nor does our finance PhD--- your right, i am not the smartest guy-- far from it-- but i have access to and work with some very bright and credentialed folks--- what i am best at is articulating complex ideas so they can be understood-- and coming up with the ideas, not doing the actual quant work to make the ideas actionable and test.

With that said, thanks for the explanation but no one here gets your point. But thats ok, as long as you get it-- that's how markets work.

Peace, surf

 

[justrading]

Ok. But i still don't understand your point nor does our finance PhD--- your right, i am not the smartest guy-- far from it-- but i have access to and work with some very bright and credentialed folks--- what i am best at is articulating complex ideas so they can be understood-- and coming up with the ideas, not doing the actual quant work to make the ideas actionable and test.

With that said, thanks for the explanation but no one here gets your point. But thats ok, as long as you get it-- that's how markets work.

Peace, surf

Could you please provide an example of articulating a complex idea so that it can be understood?

 

[JTrades]

what i am best at is articulating complex ideas so they can be understood

Excellent news! Can you please explain to me the Black-Scholes formula?

 

[marketsurfer]

Excellent news! Can you please explain to me the Black-Scholes formula?

Sure, i can derive it. Can you? I only work when i am getting paid, however. So, sorry, no.

 

[marketsurfer]

Could you please provide an example of articulating a complex idea so that it can be understood?

That's a weird question. I am not falling for it-- and if this isn't some kind of linquistic trap--the answer is no-- i get paid to do such things.

surf

 

[justrading]

That's a weird question. I am not falling for it-- and if this isn't some kind of linquistic trap--the answer is no-- i get paid to do such things.

surf

Weird? You claimed to be doing something best. Unlike the other request, I'm not requesting you do any work to respond to my request.

You clearly have done this thing before, because you know for yourself that you do it best. Just a link or a copy and paste would do. An example of past work?

And I must say I'm flattered about the linguistic bit.

 

[marketsurfer]

Weird? You claimed to be doing something best. Unlike the other request, I'm not requesting you do any work to respond to my request.

You clearly have done this thing before, because you know for yourself that you do it best. Just a link or a copy and paste would do. An example of past work?

And I must say I'm flattered about the linguistic bit.

Sorry for initially taking your question the wrong way.

Its generally done in meetings with investors or as a ghost writer for financial CEO's and fund managers --so sorry, i can't post anything here.

peace. Surf