Trend Following
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This thread is about Turtle trading, a form of trend following. Not sure how trend followers find trends in the present. A trend needs a start and finish. Something you can measure--after.
Why has the turtle trend-following system stop working?
- Thread starter helpme_please
- Start date
So the self-declared expert on trend following doesn't know how trend following works.
Wow. I always suspected but I didn't expect you to come right out and admit it.
How do you expect to follow a trend that is already finished? You got some time machine that lets you post trades in the past?
Actual trend followers follow trends that are ongoing. See, they've started but they haven't finished yet. Otherwise there's nothing to follow.
Argggh! I can't believe I actually have to explain this elementary shit.
You and surf (aka Poser 1 and Poser 2) need to go back to school.
Trend Following
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Trend following (the general name of the strategy) is about entries, exits, portfolio selection and position sizing applied in a consistent manner. When you take any one entry signal you don't know what will happen next. Many times there is no significant trend underway, at least nothing of substance. And even if there was, who cares. You already know your losing trades will hit around 60% of the time. However, take enough entries, knowing full well that entries will only be accurate give or take 40% of the time, and play the process out over a diversified portfolio with a strict loss taking policy, and then you can look back after and talk about trends. This is not rocket science.
LOL. I almost feel sorry for you. But you've made plenty of money pretending to be an expert on something you clearly know little about, so ...
Trend Following
Sponsor
Try to avoid being a tool, and respond. Of course, I know I am saying that to an anonymous troll. But, you are welcome to be civil and respond, or not.
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Respond to what? You didn't ask a question, you gave commentary. I responded on the quality of it. You clearly don't know why most TF trades fail and I for one am disinclined to clue you in. So ... see ya.
This does not work in your world? Why do you avoid to answer to proof you cannot deny? Objectivity?
If you buy at the opening at 2000, or 10 minutes later at 2002 your chances change, so you can influence the outcome with timing. There will be a 2 points difference, that is undeniable proof.
If you flip the coin at the opening or 10 minutes later the outcome will not change.
So there is a HUGE difference between flipping coins and trading.
the same way as all conclusions drawn in this life - personal experience
That's the most bizzare reasoning I have seen in some time. Im trying hard to understand what you mean and how it makes sense.
If you buy at the open at 100 or wait 5 minutes and buy at 98 --are you saying you lost 2 points, even though you didn't even enter yet?
The real question is "HOW do u influence the outcome by timing?" You have no idea how the outcome will be influenced since u don't know what will happen next. Your example has already happened, so its irrelevant to reality.
This is undeniable proof of what? Maybe proof that your hindsight bias is so strong that you have lost touch with reality??
I can't believe i am even responding to this post.
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Picking another moment to enter a trade will always give another result in the end, except if by coincidence the price would be exactly the same. This proofs that theoretically a trader can influence the result. I write clearly CAN. You say it is impossible.
It shows that flipping coins is different from trading. So your statement is completely wrong.
If you flip a coin now or in 1 hour or in 1 week, the result will be the same.
If you enter a trade now or in 1 hour or in 1 week, the result will be NOT the same.
I cannot help it that you cannot understand this. Maybe you were not in the first row when God distributed skill to people. I will try to put my logic in a very simple , easy to understand sample:
We both can choose when to buy, 1 time only, the ES, but we should sell it again at 16:00
According to you nobody can influence the result.
- I buy at 8:30 when price is 2000 because I think the price is low and will go up.
- You buy at 10:30 when the price is at 2002.
- We sell at 16:00 and price is at 2007. I made 7 points profit, you made 5 points profit. So my decision to buy at 8:30 influenced the result because I made 2 points more than you. So I did influence the result.
Now we will flip the coin. We will flip it 1 time and we both can choose when: 8:30 or 10:30, or even 16:00
No matter when we flip the coin the result will always be the same. So here you cannot influence the result. My choice of timing will give the same result as your choice of timing. Time cannot change the probabilities.
I know it will still be impossible for you to understand, but at least other people reading this might understand it.