Why has the turtle trend-following system stop working?

[Mtrader]

How many upmoves or series of moves or whatever increase the odds that the next move or series will be in the same direction??

At your age it is too late to start to learn what is needed. :eek: Especially because you should start from zero. The chapiter in the course where you should blow up your account you can skip. You did that already, with others people money apparently but we don't want to be too harsh on you, so we will pretend it was your money.
But I know you are a believer and really motivated to become a succesful trendfollower. Maybe try it in your next life?



And start more early of course.

 

[kut2k2]

How many upmoves or series of moves or whatever increase the odds that the next move or series will be in the same direction??

LOL. You keep asking the wrong questions. And at this point, given your attitude, nobody is overeager to tell you what the right ones are.

Just remember: insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.

 

[marketsurfer]

LOL. You keep asking the wrong questions. And at this point, given your attitude, nobody is overeager to tell you what the right ones are.

Just remember: insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.

When i test the stock or index futures market, the tendency is clear to mean revert , not trend.

I would like to know what you see to tell you that going with the prevailing direction at the time is edge creating rather than snide remarks.

If u flip a coin 10 times and get heads 10 times, are u in a heads trend?

surf

 

[Speculate]

Show how big returns are made over long times without some large drawdowns.

Show the data.

Buying S&P when VIX > 25.

Or,

Buy the dow stocks, sell Dow futs for a market neutral position and sit and watch the dividends roll in. Income with almost no risk/price risk exposure.

You can go get the data if you need to. Im sure its easy enough for a chap of your intellect and resources

There are many more of course.

Next question?...

 

[Speculate]

WHOA! Like Colonel Kurtz from Apocolypse Now.

I thought the same. The guy has clearly lost it. Poor chap.

Unfortunately, America has a bad history of locking up the insane with criminals. I really dont know much about this particular case, but perhaps we should consider the burglary or what ever it was that got him in jail was a result of insanity??

Either way, as a trader, he probably made more money than most on this thread, so I guess those who live in glass houses....

 

[Mtrader]

When i test the stock or index futures market, the tendency is clear to mean revert , not trend.

You should change your tests, they are not valid.

I would like to know what you see to tell you that going with the prevailing direction at the time is edge creating rather than snide remarks.

Of course everybody would like to see that. But those who can show will not. Seems logic. You don't even want to give away in what matters your wife is a worldstar, but want others to give away the secret to their income.

If u flip a coin 10 times and get heads 10 times, are u in a heads trend?

If you compare this with trading and trend then it is clear why you are not successful. You don't even understand the most basic about markets.
You cannot optimize your changes in flipping coins, the only thing that you can do is flip the coin, waiting will change nothing. In trading you can wait to optimize your chances, that's a huge difference. And timing changes your chances, because prices move all the time. If you buy at the opening at 2000, or 10 minutes later at 2002 your chances change, so you can influence the outcome with timing. There will be a 2 points difference, that is undeniable proof. If you flip the coin at the opening or 10 minutes later the outcome will not change. So there is a HUGE difference between flipping coins and trading.

 

[kut2k2]

If u flip a coin 10 times and get heads 10 times, are u in a heads trend?

surf

LMAO! This is priceless.

You keep asking the same stupid question over and over and over again, all the while ignoring cogent answers you've been given multiple times in the past.

I couldn't make this stuff up if I tried my hardest.

 

[Trend Following]

on its own it does not

As a stand alone strategy trend following does not work? Not sure how that conclusion is drawn.

 

[Trend Following]

How many upmoves or series of moves or whatever increase the odds that the next move or series will be in the same direction??

Are you arguing against the existence of momentum?

 

[marketsurfer]

You should change your tests, they are not valid.



Of course everybody would like to see that. But those who can show will not. Seems logic. You don't even want to give away in what matters your wife is a worldstar, but want others to give away the secret to their income.



If you compare this with trading and trend then it is clear why you are not succesful. You don't even understand the most basic about markets.
You cannot optimize your changes in flipping coins, the only thing that you can do is flip the coin, waiting will change nothing. In trading you can wait to optimize your chances, that's a huge difference. And timing changes your chances, because prices move all the time. If you buy at the opening at 2000, or 10 minutes later at 2002 your chances change, so you can influence the outcome with timing. If you flip the coin at the opening or 10 minutes later the outcome will not change. So there is a HUGE difference between flipping coins and trading.

ok, thank you for the compliment on annaland -- if these ideas work for you, then great. Peace. Surf