Why has the turtle trend-following system stop working?

[marketsurfer]

Are you arguing against the existence of momentum?

No. I am arguing against the idea that momentum in any direction increases your odds of profits prior to your entry.

In other words if the market moves up 3 or whatever --are the odds greater than 50/50 thst the next whatever will be in the same direction??

 

[marketsurfer]

LMAO! This is priceless.

You keep asking the same stupid question over and over and over again, all the while ignoring cogent answers you've been given multiple times in the past.

I couldn't make this stuff up if I tried my hardest.

The "cogent" answers are untestable platitudes, appeals to authority or personal anecdotes--- sorry those things don't work in my world.

surf

 

[Trend Following]

No. I am arguing against the idea that momentum in any direction increases your odds of profits prior to your entry.

In other words if the market moves up 3 or whatever --are the odds greater than 50/50 thst the next whatever will be in the same direction??

Maybe you should look at this in another way.

Are there trends one can observe after the fact in a broad array of markets? Of course.

If so, can those random unpredictable trends (measured after the fact) be captured enough via simple robust systems and applied mechanically to give off a positive ME? Sure.

Of course those simple robust systems might give off 60% losing trades as there is no one way to predict which of your entries will pan out. That means after the fact your winners must be significantly larger than those whipsawed losers.

 

[marketsurfer]

Maybe you should look at this in another way.

Are there trends one can observe after the fact in a broad array of markets? Of course.

If so, can those random unpredictable trends (measured after the fact) be captured enough via simple robust systems and applied mechanically to give off a positive ME? Sure.

Of course those simple robust systems might give off 60% losing trades as there is no one way to predict which of your entries will pan out. That means after the fact your winners must be significantly larger than those whipsawed losers.

Geeez-- that dude creeps me out. With that said, it sounds like random entries would produce the same results. Cut your losses mechanically and let your winners run with the "trend". I call this money management.

 

[Trend Following]

Unfortunately, America has a bad history of locking up the insane with criminals. I really dont know much about this particular case, but perhaps we should consider the burglary or what ever it was that got him in jail was a result of insanity??

Either way, as a trader, he probably made more money than most on this thread, so I guess those who live in glass houses....

No evidence for more money.

I saw this guy in the flesh circa 2001. It was easy to draw conclusions that there was no there there. The saddest aspect to his case are probably the numbers of people that attached to him thinking his "resume" would lead to gold (many are or were posters in ET). They never bothered to really look at that resume. They just assumed.

 

[Trend Following]

Geeez-- that dude creeps me out.

ES is no more or less quirky than VN! As they say in Asia, same same. They both happen to share very similar big picture econ views (which I admire).

 

[Trend Following]

With that said, it sounds like random entries would produce the same results.

TF trader David Harding on random:

http://www.cnbc.com/2014/07/25/random-stock-picking-will-beat-sp-fund-manager.html

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000295763

 

[marketsurfer]

ES is no more or less quirky than VN! As they say in Asia, same same. They both happen to share very similar big picture econ views (which I admire).

Yeah. Maybe both quirky but the ed sex stuff is just plain weird-/ but thats my opinion -- google him to see what i mean.

But no doubt, he is brilliant.

surf

 

[marketsurfer]

TF trader David Harding on random:

http://www.cnbc.com/2014/07/25/random-stock-picking-will-beat-sp-fund-manager.html

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000295763

That's very interesting. Great ideas!

 

[kut2k2]

The "cogent" answers are untestable platitudes, appeals to authority or personal anecdotes--- sorry those things don't work in my world.

surf

Bullshit. I gave you numbers based on your example. But go ahead, keep pretending like your question hasn't been answered. It's your M.O. when you don't like the truth.

You're the same guy who said trends only exist in the past. So by your own admission, you can't find trends in the present. No cure for that liability.