Why has the turtle trend-following system stop working?

[marketsurfer]

No, I enter only when there is already a trend. I don't anticipate, like you do.
And the trend is ALWAYS my friend, that's because of the definition of trend.
The trend always wins.

You are still anticipating that it will continue. There is no statistical edge

 

[marketsurfer]

True about only know after enter.

I think we may agree on more things than i originally thought.

 

[Mtrader]

You are still anticipating that it will continue. There is no statistical edge

The statistical edge comes from the real results. They are undeniable. So there is a statistical edge. At least if the numbers of trades are statistically representative.

 

[Trend Following]

I think we may agree on more things than i originally thought.

Just had on my podcast Lasse Pederson of AQR. Talking his book "Efficiently Inefficient":

http://www.amazon.com/Efficiently-Inefficient-Invests-Market-Determined/dp/0691166196

Momentum definitely exists. Two forms of it. One trend following.

 

[kut2k2]

But ya only know if the trend is your friend after u enter the trade. Before you enter, it is irrelevant imo.

ROFL. Your cluelessness is hilarious as always.

The trend is your friend. Always. No exceptions. Questioning the trend is not the question you should be asking. The question you should be asking is "Do I know how to find the trend?" Which in your case is not only NO, it's HELL NO.

 

[rijder]

This was a famous experiment which proved that traders can be made and not born. It worked very well for Richard Dennis but has stopped working today.

Why did it stop working?

It didnt stop working, I trade what I see not what I think, simple and transparent. Therefor I rely only on a excellent trading platform. Thats how I manage my risk. Since i am with Ctrader from Spotware, nothing but full control due to the all in one visual platform. Like In-chart one click order execution, zero conflict of interest (its a third party software developer), True ECN, zero quote manipulation, no requotes, allows for any type of trade & DoM. Cheers Rijder

 

[Mtrader]

It didnt stop working, I trade what I see not what I think, simple and transparent. Therefor I rely only on a excellent trading platform. Thats how I manage my risk. Since i am with Ctrader from Spotware, nothing but full control due to the all in one visual platform. Like In-chart one click order execution, zero conflict of interest (its a third party software developer), True ECN, zero quote manipulation, no requotes, allows for any type of trade & DoM. Cheers Rijder

Trying to sell anything?

 

[rijder]

Just sharing experience. Being a trader is like being a digital Samurai. Cutting the learning curve to my other traders starts with software, our only connection to the interbank. Cant rely on House made software...catch my drift Mtrader? Cheers!

 

[qxr1011]

Of course the Turtles worked. It's just a form of trend following. I hope that you are not arguing that trend following doesn't work.

on its own it does not

 

[marketsurfer]

ROFL. Your cluelessness is hilarious as always.

The trend is your friend. Always. No exceptions. Questioning the trend is not the question you should be asking. The question you should be asking is "Do I know how to find the trend?" Which in your case is not only NO, it's HELL NO.

How many upmoves or series of moves or whatever increase the odds that the next move or series will be in the same direction??