Why Gold has to go down...

Gold by the way has probably been one of the best investments over the last couple of years, ie the trend is up and the going looks good.

Dangerous to try and pick a top unles you're a short term trader.
 
Quote from m22au:

Some observations:

The US Dollar has fallen from 1/680 ounces of gold in October / November to 1/940 ounces of gold in mid-February. So it has fallen about 38% in about 4 months, and I agree that it is due for a short-term bounce of some sort, maybe as high as 1/850 ounces of gold.

The US Dollar price of gold could fall by 200 US Dollars, but what if that decline only happens at prices above 1200 US Dollars?

Alternatively, let's say gold falls to 800 US Dollars .... will you be hanging out for a decline to 740 US Dollars to hit the buy button?
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Well, that's the thing...
I know where I'm going to buy...
I have levels below and above the market...
Too many peeps think we are going to 1200-1500 by years end...people who have zero market knowledge...
But that's the least of my worries...
My main concern is the chart..
and though gold has made new highs in almost every other currency except USD, I still feel that a correction will come...
 
Gold will go to $1,500 to $2,000 an ounce with the talking heads of CNBC mussing about the return to the Gold Standard. The
United States has lost all respect internationally due to the
Credit Default Swap implosion.

Here comes inflation...:eek:

www.bellevuebanker.com
 
Gold is benefiting from investors' lack of confidence in the leaders of the major world economic powers having a solid grip on how to end the economic malaise we now face. This flight into Gold became more apparent after U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner failed to provide specific details on the U.S. Government's plan to deal with the economic crisis.

In addition to being a store of safety during turbulent economic times, Gold is also used as an inflation hedge. Though it may seem strange for traders to buy Gold in a deflationary environment, we must think of what may happen once all this liquidity being pumped in from major world central banks finally works its way through the world economy.

In addition to the psychological reasons for owning gold, there are actually some bullish fundamentals as well. Gold supplies out of South Africa fell once again, with output down by almost 18% in December. Also supportive was the growing interest in Gold ETF's, with the largest of these funds, the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), increasing their holdings to a record 935.09 metric tons. So until traders and investors start to feel confident that the worst of the economic turmoil is behind us, the lure of Gold will continue to be a beacon for those looking for a safe haven in this stormy investment climate.
 
It will get to $1200 by end April 09

Quote from Bellevuebanker:

Gold will go to $1,500 to $2,000 an ounce with the talking heads of CNBC mussing about the return to the Gold Standard. The
United States has lost all respect internationally due to the
Credit Default Swap implosion.
More...
 
Quote from karajan123:

Some thoughtful people like Hugh Hendry, make an argument that gold is overhyped right now, and might correct or at least not do much in the short term. He is also very bearish on the economy, long treasuries, etc.. I think the example of the infomercial speaks more to the heightened interest around gold, because as you said dealers both buy and sell. The retail investors are all in, which is troubling.
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You need to look deeper.

The spot market is just paper. The physical market is where you see the REAL pricing.

It's not like every dealer is out there peddling oversupply. Quite the opposite. Just about any jeweler will ask you if you have any gold to sell because he/she is buying. Coin dealers have limited stocks to deal with even small orders. What do you think happens when a sports celebrity comes in and wants 300k worth of gold coins?

What I foresee happening is a stage where the spot price falls on decreasing volume, while real bullion goes through the roof. Because slowly and slowly, it is becoming relevant that paper gold is still...just.. paper.

There is hoarding going on, but it is not because people all of the sudden think Gold is the hot thing to have. It's because fiat currencies are going down the toilet. And there are few real assets available to invest in.
 
Quote from Anaconda:

There is hoarding going on, but it is not because people all of the sudden think Gold is the hot thing to have. It's because fiat currencies are going down the toilet. And there are few real assets available to invest in.
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I love gold and silver, but you are just wrong about few real assets available ... Look around ... tons of them.

Rhodium will soon be cheaper than gold. Looking good.
 
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