Why Gold has to go down...
- Thread starter PohPoh
- Start date
Cash4Gold buys gold not sells. They are reaching to the suckers who are stupid enough to sell at 50% discount to spot, then smelt and resell at spot +20%. They are capitalizing on people needing cash, and if anything, it's a bigtime bullish sign that dealers, jewelers & smelters are out there asking anyone & everyone if they have any gold to sell.
The writer should learn WTF he is talking about first. But then, he thinks the US will be out of the recession in late 2009, lol.
this is trully crapy article - you can have a counterpoint to each of his points and twelve more.
personally i hate gold - and that's why i am mostly missing on all this rally. pretty stupid i agree.
therefore always when i trade long futures i take my profit too early.
i bought some gold miners when they were really cheap because i figured there was value to be had even with gold going nowhere. on top of that with all currencies going to hell the likelyhood of gold tanking is small at best.
personally i hate gold - and that's why i am mostly missing on all this rally. pretty stupid i agree.
therefore always when i trade long futures i take my profit too early.
i bought some gold miners when they were really cheap because i figured there was value to be had even with gold going nowhere. on top of that with all currencies going to hell the likelyhood of gold tanking is small at best.
You have to do your research......GOLD is NOT a technical trading animal imo in our current environment. GOLD is exceptionally manipulated for many reasons by VERY big players at this time. World currencies can be somewhat controlled with GOLD stable, but if GOLD starts a parabolic move then all bets are off.....that will create the situation where various "controlled" world currencies will come crashing down. Also, you have to look at the ABILITY for entities like COMEX to be able to deliver physical GOLD for all requested deliveries as the price of GOLD keeps rising. There are too many fundamental reasons on the table to trade GOLD from a technical ONLY standpoint.
I am trading GOLD LONG as the proven last resort form of currency in a degrading world economic environment. I am also making a bet AGAINST the ability for Globalist Wealth Entities to continue their massive manipulative moves in GOLD and currencies.....I feel their directed trade activities will blow up in their face as they LOSE CONTROL in their PLANNED financial grid takedown!!!
I am trading GOLD LONG as the proven last resort form of currency in a degrading world economic environment. I am also making a bet AGAINST the ability for Globalist Wealth Entities to continue their massive manipulative moves in GOLD and currencies.....I feel their directed trade activities will blow up in their face as they LOSE CONTROL in their PLANNED financial grid takedown!!!
Some thoughtful people like Hugh Hendry, make an argument that gold is overhyped right now, and might correct or at least not do much in the short term. He is also very bearish on the economy, long treasuries, etc.. I think the example of the infomercial speaks more to the heightened interest around gold, because as you said dealers both buy and sell. The retail investors are all in, which is troubling.
here's the video of Hendry I was refering too
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TieSnPxbWKk
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TieSnPxbWKk
Some observations:
The US Dollar has fallen from 1/680 ounces of gold in October / November to 1/940 ounces of gold in mid-February. So it has fallen about 38% in about 4 months, and I agree that it is due for a short-term bounce of some sort, maybe as high as 1/850 ounces of gold.
The US Dollar price of gold could fall by 200 US Dollars, but what if that decline only happens at prices above 1200 US Dollars?
Alternatively, let's say gold falls to 800 US Dollars .... will you be hanging out for a decline to 740 US Dollars to hit the buy button?
The US Dollar has fallen from 1/680 ounces of gold in October / November to 1/940 ounces of gold in mid-February. So it has fallen about 38% in about 4 months, and I agree that it is due for a short-term bounce of some sort, maybe as high as 1/850 ounces of gold.
The US Dollar price of gold could fall by 200 US Dollars, but what if that decline only happens at prices above 1200 US Dollars?
Alternatively, let's say gold falls to 800 US Dollars .... will you be hanging out for a decline to 740 US Dollars to hit the buy button?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/8355852
The world's largest gold-backed ETF, New York's SPDR Gold Trust, said its holdings rose nearly 5 percent on Wednesday to record levels.
I read a paper the other day that showed that long-term retail stock investors had a negative net return in their mutual fund investments after the tech bubble burst as the major dollar weighted inflows occurred in 1999 and 2000 -- right when the news landscape looked most bullish without a cloud in the sky.
'Hedges' are great as long as they go your way; retail folks can't bear the pain of losing money on a 'hedge' once they realize it was actually a speculative investment. How many retail investors got burnt with 'long commodity hedges against inflation' that backfired in 2008?
I'd say that the dollar-weighted investment return of retail investors buying Gold today will be negative by the time they exit. Doesn't mean it can't go much higher, but that will just cause more retail net-inflows at much higher prices.
The world's largest gold-backed ETF, New York's SPDR Gold Trust, said its holdings rose nearly 5 percent on Wednesday to record levels.
I read a paper the other day that showed that long-term retail stock investors had a negative net return in their mutual fund investments after the tech bubble burst as the major dollar weighted inflows occurred in 1999 and 2000 -- right when the news landscape looked most bullish without a cloud in the sky.
'Hedges' are great as long as they go your way; retail folks can't bear the pain of losing money on a 'hedge' once they realize it was actually a speculative investment. How many retail investors got burnt with 'long commodity hedges against inflation' that backfired in 2008?
I'd say that the dollar-weighted investment return of retail investors buying Gold today will be negative by the time they exit. Doesn't mean it can't go much higher, but that will just cause more retail net-inflows at much higher prices.