Why does TA not work (for you)?

Quote from marketsurfer:

There are tons of them. You mentioned it like it was the holy grail that works across all time and all markets--- a novel idea. I was merely pointing out that it is an old old idea. why didn`t you list aronson initially rather than `suggesting`it was your ideaÉ
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Aronson did not suggest the idea to me, I found his idea after I had already developed my own, which is completely independent of his and doesn't work in the same way at all.

The concept may be old, but it's all in the execution of the concept. "Space travel" was an idea as old as time, but it took modern technology to make it happen.

Yeah, I do think that volatility, correctly used, is basically the Holy Grail.
 
the price driver method as DEFINED by marketsurfer is what i am referring to.

Quote from cdcaveman:

dude price drivers work..... IE .. vol up into earnings... thats price driving..
IE anticipation of product release with aapl... Fed buying program etc.. etc..
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Let's now talk a little about trade management. I used TA to setup a short in a future today with double confirmation. Double confirmation for me means that we got 2 reasons based on my TA rules to go short.

The issue for this trade was that the stop was not far enough away and got hit by a green candle.

However, seeing that price was not able to continue going up, I got back in the trade and was able to hold to my target.

So TA can sometimes not work for a person if the trade management is not correct. You need to be able to withstand both noise and a single candle going against the trade. Stops can't be too tight, and trades need room to breath. However, it may be fine once you have a wider stop to make it a little tighter if the trade is going your way.

With trading one needs to decide if they want to chase a little if they did not get in at a good place or wait for price to come back a little to be able to get in at a better position, and not worry that you are missing the train. The tighter the stop you want, the more you need to be able to get in closer to where you can have a survivable stop which gets you out of the trade when the market proves your analysis to be incorrect. As, noted, it may sometimes be better to take a small loss, and decide after watching more price action if you want to get back into the trade.

Obviously, this information is not going to be relevant to people who don't believe in TA. This post is not for them, I don't care to prove or disprove TA. This post is to help traders make TA work better for them especially if they have some understanding of price action.

If I were to post a chart of today's trade, which I am not going to do. I could easily highlight the 2 confirmations based on scientific fact that would allow one to predict in advance the future movement of price within the next 10 - 15 minutes. TA can if you are patient give you a very high win%. However, being able to execute and manage the trades, can be just as important as having a profitable edge.
 
oh sorry.. here i am piping in on a topic i'm not versed in... "your conversation" i kinda believe the market finds the stupidest people and sells them what they are desperate for.. HOPE! HAHA
 
Quote from R. Raskolnikov:

the price driver method as DEFINED by marketsurfer is what i am referring to.
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CDCaveman explained what a price driver is. My system simply takes the majority of known price drivers, weighs them, quantifies them, then applies a bias. When the bias gets stron enough, a trade is entered in anticipation of direction without regard to TA. See surf journal. 3 wins out of 3 trades before the fact. Let's see TA before fact calls.
 
I just checked your journal, one of your trades wasn't a PRICE DRIVER trade. Another shoot from the hip type trade I'm sure.

Anyways, to my point, I'm not going to sit here and tell you YOUR approach is wrong when I do not know enough about it and haven't tested it myself. That's just me, I don't get arrogant about things I do not know much about.

Quote from marketsurfer:

CDCaveman explained what a price driver is. My system simply takes the majority of known price drivers, weighs them, quantifies them, then applies a bias. When the bias gets stron enough, a trade is entered in anticipation of direction without regard to TA. See surf journal. 3 wins out of 3 trades before the fact. Let's see TA before fact calls.
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Quote from marketsurfer:

CDCaveman explained what a price driver is. My system simply takes the majority of known price drivers, weighs them, quantifies them, then applies a bias. When the bias gets stron enough, a trade is entered in anticipation of direction without regard to TA. See surf journal. 3 wins out of 3 trades before the fact. Let's see TA before fact calls.
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Man, I know you can't see it because it is hard to be objective about ourselves, but you can't believe how stupid it looks to be making these grand pronouncements about TA and then go touting 3 winning trades in a row. For a guy who talks so much about coin flips and random entries, you'd think that you'd hold off on bragging until at least 8 to 10 straight winners. Facepalm extraordinaire.
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

VN is still worth $100 million plus, was ranked as the number one hedge fund manager in the WORLD for several years, and does what he wants, when he wants, where he wants. Not to mention laid the groundwork for much of modern trading theory. Plus the dozen plus highly successful 100 million plus fund managers that are a direct result of his tutelage. Its quite funny watching anonymous message board trolls spout their nonsense.

By the way, the 97 blow up was due to an exchange conspiracy-- VN sued the exchange and WON proving this fact.

surf
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LOL...exchange conspiracy. HAHAHAHA. Puleeeeeeeeeeeeze. He got obliterated being short puts. He sold premium. What an original idea. Vic's stepping in front of a bulldozer to pick up nickels strategy works great until the one time it doesn't. He is no different than any other horrendous risk-reward blow out trader.

What good does being ranked a top fund manager mean when you eventually lose all your clients money in that fund.....TWICE!!!

Sorry Surf, read any market wizards book or any other book talking to the great traders of our time. None of them mention VN at all. He did not lay any kind of groundwork for modern trading theory.
 
Quote from R. Raskolnikov:

I just checked your journal, one of your trades wasn't a PRICE DRIVER trade. Another shoot from the hip type trade I'm sure.

Anyways, to my point, I'm not going to sit here and tell you YOUR approach is wrong when I do not know enough about it and haven't tested it myself. That's just me, I don't get arrogant about things I do not know much about.
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but generally you do get arrogant? hahaha i like that
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

CDCaveman explained what a price driver is. My system simply takes the majority of known price drivers, weighs them, quantifies them, then applies a bias. When the bias gets stron enough, a trade is entered in anticipation of direction without regard to TA. See surf journal. 3 wins out of 3 trades before the fact. Let's see TA before fact calls.
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3 trades. HUGE sample size.
 
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