Why does TA not work (for you)?

Quote from dv4632:

I'll put this up as an example of how there can be subjectivity even with a clear set of entry/exit rules. The chart is of last Friday on ES.

Let's say you give out a set of rules for trading channels.

Trader A draws a down channel encompassing the globex action and gets the result in the top chart. He will apply the trade rules to that channel.

Trader B goes back farther and draws a down channel that starts during Thursday's RTH session and gets the result in the bottom chart. The dashed line shows the downtrend that Trader A is using.

So even though both traders are will be applying the exact same rules for entry/exit, and they both follow all the rules, they will not get the same results because they are using different channels.

When it comes to discretionery trading and TA there are tons of cases like this one! Eventually I decided there is no right or wrong way of using TA, that the answer has to be something deeper and more intuitive. Just as there is no right or wrong way to throw a curveball. Different pitchers will adopt a wind-up and delivery style that suits them best. It's hard to comprehend but it's the only way I can explain the success of some traders in a field where the overwhelming majority never make it.

attachment.php
More...

Why did you leave volume off your charts???
 
Quote from cdcaveman:

...its not that TA doesn't work.. its that if you don't have a comprehensive trading strategy.. (IE double triple confirmation.. trade size/position size management.. money management.. and as well just generally be familiar with your instrument and its influencing factors.)
...TA works..
More...

So, simple even a caveman can do it.
 
attached is a pic of "The Pattern".

You see a trend which is one half of a cycle.

The labelling shows most of the pieces that a coder defines and uses in records and makes an ATS usuing a RDBMS.

For price you see a parallelogram which is the least complex geometric form. the points have loci which are definable by two dimensions. Not many people know how to chose the dimensions properly.wheres my factals example?
 

Attachments

Quote from marketsurfer:

I don't know everything, but I have not seen one iota of evidence that objective fixed TA works in 20 plus years of daily market work/study. What else can I base this belief on? What folks tell me on an anonymous message board?
More...
surf, what in your mind does TA stand for/include
 
Quote from jack hershey:

attached is a pic of "The Pattern".

You see a trend which is one half of a cycle.

The labelling shows most of the pieces that a coder defines and uses in records and makes an ATS usuing a RDBMS.

For price you see a parallelogram which is the least complex geometric form. the points have loci which are definable by two dimensions. Not many people know how to chose the dimensions properly.wheres my factals example?
More...

I have been provided with a week's worth of clean ES charts.

Ill use one to point out the pattern as a beginning effort.

I entered and exited on this chart and I did 7 reversals using the pattern in between the opening entry and the bar 78 exit.
 

Attachments

Quote from jack hershey:

I have been provided with a week's worth of clean ES charts.

Ill use one to point out the pattern as a beginning effort.

I entered and exited on this chart and I did 7 reversals using the pattern in between the opening entry and the bar 78 exit.
More...

As you can see the original posting is the same as this chart. Both are no good since the AM part of the chart is messed up.

I wanted to do a week and then we could tab the trades. Mostly everyone has said hind sight is 100%. I will be using my records done at the time.

Sorry about the Monday chart.

What happened Monday was:

enter on bar 1 long.

reverse short on bar 8

reverse long on bar 21

reverse short on bar 24

reverse long on bar 31

reverse short on bar 41

reverse long on bar 53

reverse short on bar 67

exit on bar 78

For any trader of any skill levels, the trader gets a signal from nalysis during a bar. It comes from records being processed by using an RDBMS.

Use the crayola test to draw links between the nodes you have listed above.

Now I will use Tuesday to do the science of the Pattern.

By doing the zig zag on the chart (you have to use the time to get the bars correct afer the mess of the first bars..
 
Quote from ammo:

surf, what in your mind does TA stand for/include
More...

Hi Ammo,

TA is the charting/studying of past prices in an attempt to increase the odds that your trade entry will be profitable. Often has to do with certain patterns with dubious predictive qualities.
 
quick note.

the friday chart is messed up as well.

this means doing a three day sample is a poor collection.

We can get a statisitical P< 0.05 for the number of reversals.

I do carry over in trading.

this means I know I know what the opening bar sentiment is.

So I enter promptly to take advantage of the volatility of bar 1.

Lets use the Pattern to trade this day.

Bar 78 formed a lateral and this means Peak 1 in volume and PT1 in price are on bar 1.

The "shadow" of bar one goes for 6 bars including bar 78 the first bar of the TA determined long Pattern. An SQL record keeps track of this.

We are going to hold this long until, as shown on the Pattern picture, we reach the PEAK # and an FTT of price.

In the construct being used we need to see a T1 next in the order of events.

A viewer may be able to see bar 3 breaks out of the shadow. this means the volume may be compaared to the P1 volume.

Obviously, in SQL which is a RDBMS language all of this is handled precisely and certainly.

we need to find the Peak 3 and it is after peak 2 and then trough 2. there is an order of events and it is kept track of as the bars go by.

By this time in my explanation, the whole nine yards of SCT has been revealed to those who are able to do logic. the Pattern works on PVT and SSR as well. The Pattern comes from PEP.

Summilarily, You find P2 is recorded as being on bars 4 and 7.

To do the last move (3rd move of a trend) we get more precise and use more detail once T2 has shown up. Then we need to find P3. Bars 8 though 14 allow this to happen.

a reversal happens on bar 14. we go short there.
 

Attachments

You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top