Why does TA not work (for you)?
- Thread starter Xspurt
- Start date
A close look at bars 8 through 14 is in order.
As explained, inductive reasoning doesn't hack it. Using propability doesn't hack it since propability is based upon induction.
you can see bars 9 and 10 are in the shaddow of the bar that ends the first two moves of the trend.
bars 8 and 11 form both sides of the sub fractal which is the third move of the trend. You have a volume range for the third price move of the tend.
take a moment and get the picture that records in SQL define everything preciisely AND further thee is a logical Definition of each of the pieces found in the volume Order Of Events. A reader has to do someething at this point. He has to read all of SQL and und stand how all records are kept for any lagnuage in the RDBMS concept.
Conside that done. You could do it. If you want a humourous short cut go to the book on Haskell.
Now look at the two remaining bars.12 and 13.
13 broadens the third move channel. You could write the definition of the lower volume side. You see it cannot get tighter it can only get looser.
bar 12 was a failure to have a peak 3. That is ALL it is. It cannot srve more than one master in logical reasoning.
Bar 14 is in the range of the volume limits. You can sit and think about bar 14. You find it does not meet the definintiion of any of he peaks and troughs prior to this bar. It is dream come true in finite math.
I posted an attachment for river. It was regarded as hilarious.
But it isn't. Neither is anyhing else I write.
this thread describes the fialure of people to make use of TA. The vreason is they are too dumb or not smart enough or too lazy or take short cuts.
I see people have taken 20 years of missing out or 8 hazardous years of finding out "following" is wrong.
As I said I was very lucky for about a month and then it was over.
this page has many many answers between the lines. BUT the trick isthis: you have to have the questions to get the answers. Thee is a caveat on the questions, too. they have to solve the next problem you cannot figure out.
Einstein gave you all your definition of insnaity.
thee is another dfinition you missed along the way.
"If you cannot solve a problem; solve part of it to turn the problem into a problem you can solve" Jack Hershey.
the next reversal is on bar 20
the next reversal is on bar 38
you exit on the last reversal on bar 78. the next day begins long.
i feel so lucky surf has me on ignore.
Here is what you learned today:
the market is ordely.
Every bar is in a specific category.
Two sub sets of bar categories exist: EE's and continuations. they are mutually exclusive.
As explained, inductive reasoning doesn't hack it. Using propability doesn't hack it since propability is based upon induction.
you can see bars 9 and 10 are in the shaddow of the bar that ends the first two moves of the trend.
bars 8 and 11 form both sides of the sub fractal which is the third move of the trend. You have a volume range for the third price move of the tend.
take a moment and get the picture that records in SQL define everything preciisely AND further thee is a logical Definition of each of the pieces found in the volume Order Of Events. A reader has to do someething at this point. He has to read all of SQL and und stand how all records are kept for any lagnuage in the RDBMS concept.
Conside that done. You could do it. If you want a humourous short cut go to the book on Haskell.
Now look at the two remaining bars.12 and 13.
13 broadens the third move channel. You could write the definition of the lower volume side. You see it cannot get tighter it can only get looser.
bar 12 was a failure to have a peak 3. That is ALL it is. It cannot srve more than one master in logical reasoning.
Bar 14 is in the range of the volume limits. You can sit and think about bar 14. You find it does not meet the definintiion of any of he peaks and troughs prior to this bar. It is dream come true in finite math.
I posted an attachment for river. It was regarded as hilarious.
But it isn't. Neither is anyhing else I write.
this thread describes the fialure of people to make use of TA. The vreason is they are too dumb or not smart enough or too lazy or take short cuts.
I see people have taken 20 years of missing out or 8 hazardous years of finding out "following" is wrong.
As I said I was very lucky for about a month and then it was over.
this page has many many answers between the lines. BUT the trick isthis: you have to have the questions to get the answers. Thee is a caveat on the questions, too. they have to solve the next problem you cannot figure out.
Einstein gave you all your definition of insnaity.
thee is another dfinition you missed along the way.
"If you cannot solve a problem; solve part of it to turn the problem into a problem you can solve" Jack Hershey.
the next reversal is on bar 20
the next reversal is on bar 38
you exit on the last reversal on bar 78. the next day begins long.
i feel so lucky surf has me on ignore.
Here is what you learned today:
the market is ordely.
Every bar is in a specific category.
Two sub sets of bar categories exist: EE's and continuations. they are mutually exclusive.
See attached
Yes surf is saying that.
He has this peculiar orientation of thinking he HAS to predict.
NO ONE PREDICTS; IT IS NOT NECESSARY TO PREDICT.
THE ALTERNATIVE IS ALWAYS
"KNOWING THAT YOU KNOW"
the second revrsal is a quickie and the thirs and fourth reversals happen the same way the first reversal happened.
I posted the bars of all quickies as live calls a few weeks ago.
this quickie is a pre primary reversal; that is, it happens vry soon as the primary Order of Events is just getting under way.
It is very cool.
Bars 17 and 18 ae the start of the trend after the last reversal on bar 14.
You see the shaddow on bars 15 and 16, then the BO on 17.
Bar 17 is assigned P1; bar 18 is another P1 by definition. the definitions re in records and SQL instructions allow you to use any definition any time you need it.
bar 19 is a shaddow and bingo the quickie appears on the next bar.
I suppose I have to tell you to give it a name and give the name a definition. Go back and see my calls and give each a name and a definition.
The whole nine yards is called work. All a person does is gothrough all the possibilities and organize them. Once that is done you have a system with no noise, no anomaties and no flaws.
I posted the bars of all quickies as live calls a few weeks ago.
this quickie is a pre primary reversal; that is, it happens vry soon as the primary Order of Events is just getting under way.
It is very cool.
Bars 17 and 18 ae the start of the trend after the last reversal on bar 14.
You see the shaddow on bars 15 and 16, then the BO on 17.
Bar 17 is assigned P1; bar 18 is another P1 by definition. the definitions re in records and SQL instructions allow you to use any definition any time you need it.
bar 19 is a shaddow and bingo the quickie appears on the next bar.
I suppose I have to tell you to give it a name and give the name a definition. Go back and see my calls and give each a name and a definition.
The whole nine yards is called work. All a person does is gothrough all the possibilities and organize them. Once that is done you have a system with no noise, no anomaties and no flaws.
Pretty simply, the study of past performance to predict (hate that word) the probable direction of future price movements. All types of analysis generally do the same thing but certain aspects of different types of analysis set them apart from TA. IMO...the biggest flaw with TA is it leads a trader to take one position or the other -- long or short. Advanced trading moves far beyond the simple buying or selling of a security.
As a brief example, what is the correlation between Gold and Silver? Is there a trade that involves being long one and short the other? What is the leverage? To balance (minimize your risk) what size position do you take in each. What about bond futures? There's a multitude of opportunities with those instruments.
Technical Analysis doesn't even enter this realm. The market is one gigantic random number generator and as such, the best tools for analyzing such a beast is Statistical Analysis. Computational Finance and Stochastic Calculus are extremely valuable tools. I took 3 semesters and 2 semesters, respectively. The education I received in this program has paid for itself many, many times over.
If you want to be successful in the markets you have understand and use the tools that your strongest competitors are using.
<i>"Why does TA not work (for you)?"</i> Because it is an inferior strategy and it's used by the masses. What does that tell you when the losing rate is generally accepted as 95% and my guess is 95% of traders use TA and nothing else.
Just think about being long the 5-year and short the 30-year, for example, and then pulling in the 10-year for shits and giggles. What is the relationship between all these instruments. What do you do when they generate an outlier? What can be accomplished by taking positions in these instruments in different time frames (expiration dates)?
<b>Trading is limited only by your imagination and your acumen for mathematics. </b> Learn to move beyond being long or short an instrument with a stop. Stops generate losses due to the random element of the market. Managing risk through spreads and such do not involve stops. Average up? Average down? It's truly limitless!
As a brief example, what is the correlation between Gold and Silver? Is there a trade that involves being long one and short the other? What is the leverage? To balance (minimize your risk) what size position do you take in each. What about bond futures? There's a multitude of opportunities with those instruments.
Technical Analysis doesn't even enter this realm. The market is one gigantic random number generator and as such, the best tools for analyzing such a beast is Statistical Analysis. Computational Finance and Stochastic Calculus are extremely valuable tools. I took 3 semesters and 2 semesters, respectively. The education I received in this program has paid for itself many, many times over.
If you want to be successful in the markets you have understand and use the tools that your strongest competitors are using.
<i>"Why does TA not work (for you)?"</i> Because it is an inferior strategy and it's used by the masses. What does that tell you when the losing rate is generally accepted as 95% and my guess is 95% of traders use TA and nothing else.
Just think about being long the 5-year and short the 30-year, for example, and then pulling in the 10-year for shits and giggles. What is the relationship between all these instruments. What do you do when they generate an outlier? What can be accomplished by taking positions in these instruments in different time frames (expiration dates)?
<b>Trading is limited only by your imagination and your acumen for mathematics. </b> Learn to move beyond being long or short an instrument with a stop. Stops generate losses due to the random element of the market. Managing risk through spreads and such do not involve stops. Average up? Average down? It's truly limitless!
I don't believe any past price data can be used to create greater odds of a move continuing or failing. surf
Extremely succinctly stated---And 100% accurate. unfortunately, many of the TA church will refuse to see the light or simply be in denial. Thank you, surf