Why does TA not work (for you)?

[marketsurfer]

Quote from Fah Q:

would be great if surf can point out where price drivers located entries today.

The system doesn't trade daily. See Surf's special situation journal. Thanks

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from Tonkadad:

Ohh, the plot thickens, will ND confirm or deny, its anybody's guess and is that her real name? And who is this Redneck fellow she keeps mentioning, Momma says never trust a man with one name.

Meanwhile, Aunt Martha is lying in a ditch at the edge of town with a broken leg, will they find her in time?

Stay tuned for next weeks's exciting episode.

. ND is NoDoji. No clue if that's the real name, anything is possible. We will have to take he comment at face value unless it's clarified. I think it wasn't sarcasm, but I have no actual evidence.

 

[Fah Q]

Quote from marketsurfer:

The system doesn't trade daily. See Surf's special situation journal. Thanks

ok thanks. not sure why the journal is called special situations though. does the price drivers method only trade stocks that are taking a nosedive, aka catching a falling knife? TIA

 

[jack hershey]

Quote from Fah Q:

today 5 min spiders (spy) chart

See attached,

I enter on bar 1 according to carryover.

the first cicle is a reversal.

the last circle is an exit on bar 78.

So I will enter tomorrow hrot to finsish the trend that is being carried over.

YVW.

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from Fah Q:

ok thanks. not sure why the journal is called special situations though. does the price drivers method only trade stocks that are taking a nosedive, aka catching a falling knife? TIA

It's not connected with price movement in the least for directional bias.

 

[Fah Q]

Quote from marketsurfer:

It's not connected with price movement in the least for directional bias.

ok, but what makes it a special situation then?

 

[traderchi128]

Quote from logic_man:

Way back when in the thread, he admitted that my contention that in using "price drivers" vs. "TA", a trader is basically swapping one kind of uncertainty for another is true.

One of the great puzzles of research into anomalies or market inefficiencies is the question "Why aren't they immediately exploited?". No one seems to know the answer.

I think at the end of the day the difference between the guy that makes it and the guy that fails is risk mgmt and discipline. When you read an interview with any of the famous traders out here, whether they are TA guys or Fundamental guys they all agree that is the main factor.


A lot of times I would imagine guys that hear about a "price driver" are late to the party. Buy the rumor, sell the news type trades.

 

[Fah Q]

Quote from jack hershey:

See attached,

I enter on bar 1 according to carryover.

the first cicle is a reversal.

the last circle is an exit on bar 78.

So I will enter tomorrow hrot to finsish the trend that is being carried over.

YVW.

thank you

 

[logic_man]

Quote from marketsurfer:

They are for the most part. The market is constantly changing, making meals of yesterday's killer systems. The anomalies and inefficiencies are constantly evolving and changing. I worked for n option arbitrage firm that had a great edge for awhile. Then it ended. Happens all the time. N

By "immediately exploited", I was referring to the fact that there appear to be some anomalies which work with a time lag from the initial appearance of the anomaly trigger. If the market were really efficient, the appearance of the trigger itself would signal enough traders to pile in to immediately earn all of the excess returns associated with the anomaly. That doesn't happen. Some anomalies are still earning excess returns a year out from the initial satisfaction of the relevant conditions.

When you look at the market as a process for the creation of price fluctuations and deconstruct that process into its beginning, middle and end, it doesn't change at all. The change is all on the surface, not in the structure. The only way it could change is if it ceased to exist.

 

[logic_man]

Quote from traderchi128:

I think at the end of the day the difference between the guy that makes it and the guy that fails is risk mgmt and discipline. When you read an interview with any of the famous traders out here, whether they are TA guys or Fundamental guys they all agree that is the main factor.


A lot of times I would imagine guys that hear about a "price driver" are late to the party. Buy the rumor, sell the news type trades.

A few days ago there was a thread about "what was the most important thing for you to learn" or something like that. I said "Learning how to lose" and it has definitely made all the difference for me. I treat every trade like a scientific experiment with a right and a wrong answer. When I get the wrong answer from the market, I exit. What I love about my strategy is that the answer nearly always gets "wronger" after I exit, so my exiting was definitely the right move at the time. There's always another trade on the horizon.

The funny thing I have found about discipline is that there is a positive feedback loop for discipline embedded in a good strategy. If you have a good strategy, you are going to find that your breaks in discipline cost you money. After being burned enough on this, you will adhere to your rules.