Why does TA not work (for you)?

[hoodooman]

Years ago, I used to correspond with Jim Rogers when he was on CNBC regularly.

One morning he stated that he had shorted the q's.


Well the q's kept going up big time but he never mentioned it again.


So I asked him, later on, if he was still holding his position and he replied that he had covered his short.

So I asked him what technical indicators did he use to decide when to short the stock and he replied that he didn't use technical indicator but that next time he might consider it. lol

Well I learned along time ago when a stock is soaring up and volume is high then that is not the place to exercise a short position but I didn't learn it from Rogers. lol

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from R. Raskolnikov:

I thought you were only interested in quantifiable methods?? Subjective exits do not seem to fit this mold.

You can quantify exits based on your own criteria--- ie-- how much you are willing to lose/win--- I can't do that for you-- so its subjective based on your goals. I guess you could call it personally quantified.

Whereas, entries can be objective, and quantifiable for everyone regardless of goals as we all have the same goal to make money... make sense?

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from hoodooman:

Years ago, I used to correspond with Jim Rogers when he was on CNBC regularly.

One morning he stated that he had shorted the q's.


Well the q's kept going up big time but he never mentioned it again.


So I asked him, later on, if he was still holding his position and he replied that he had covered his short.

So I asked him what technical indicators did he use to decide when to short the stock and he replied that he didn't use technical indicator but that next time he might consider it. lol

Well I learned along time ago when a stock is soaring up and volume is high then that is not the place to exercise a short position but I didn't learn it from Rogers. lol

I have chatted with Rogers several times in the past-- one is published-- he HATES TA calling it BS. Nice guy, although a little odd at times.....

 

[R. Raskolnikov]

Yeah, it sounds entirely like how I trade. All entries are 100% objective and non random and, depending on ones goals (mine in this case since I don't lease my signals), the exits can vary and do. Summertime trading I exit more quickly when I perceive volatility to be low.

Quote from marketsurfer:

You can quantify exits based on your own criteria--- ie-- how much you are willing to lose/win--- I can't do that for you-- so its subjective based on your goals. Whereas, entries can be objective, and quantifiable for everyone regardless of goals... make sense?

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from R. Raskolnikov:

Yeah, it sounds entirely like how I trade. All entries are 100% objective and non random and, depending on ones goals (mine in this case since I don't lease my signals), the exits can vary and do. Summertime trading I exit more quickly when I perceive volatility to be low.

Smart. I am happy we agree on something!

 

[Fah Q]

Quote from Fah Q:

who are these traders? ive never heard of any price driver traders before.

how many traders in your price drivers trading group, surf?

 

[Tonkadad]

Quote from BSAM:

Sister ND, I thought you used to use the 5 minute time frame.

I believe that this quote, "the 5m time frame (which is pure noise and offers no exploitable edge)," is "dripping with sarcasm".

 

[traderchi128]

Quote from marketsurfer:

This is WAY beyond fundamentals. I agree that exits are crucial, but they are based on ones personal risk tolerance and capital allocation--- in other words, exits are subjective depending on ones goals.

I contend that a TA guy with good discipline and money management would do just as well with random entries as chart based entries.

Obviously the TA guy is using the past to guess the future price-- Price Driver traders use price drivers that exist prior to price moving therefore they have an edge over the past price brigade.

One could argue though that price drive traders are merely guessing as well. You could get some information/fundamental news that is a price driver, but it's already priced into the market. At the end of the day your "price driver" could lead to one great trade....then a week alter lead to a loser. All depends on your exit strategy.

I see no real edge vs a TA guy here Surf.

 

[BSAM]

Quote from Tonkadad:

I believe that this quote, "the 5m time frame (which is pure noise and offers no exploitable edge)," is "dripping with sarcasm".

Okay...Flew right over my head.
Thanks Tonka.

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from Tonkadad:

I believe that this quote, "the 5m time frame (which is pure noise and offers no exploitable edge)," is "dripping with sarcasm".

You hope it was sarcasm.... coming from the resident TA guru, it says a lot. Would like to see ND confirm or deny...