1. Don't gamble...
Then we are all shafted, my friend. However, if you must gamble, be sensible.
Regards.
Why do traders fail?
- Thread starter market-boss
- Start date
1. Don't gamble...
Then we are all shafted, my friend. However, if you must gamble, be sensible.
Regards.
Scuse me for speaking out of turn here, having zero experience and all, so take this with a grain of salt FWIW but my observation is day trading, particularly day trading in equities, is NOT a zero sum thing. Day traders are not insulated from investors, swing traders, or fund managers. We are not in a fishbowl. We are not in a pond or lake all by ourselves. We are in a bay, connected to a vast ocean, and the tide both ebbs and flows. If it were a purely zero sum thing, then eventually one guy would walk away with ALL the cookies on the table.
Indeed. And whether it is a "zero-sum" thing or not should not matter to the traders' minds. The hell does "zero-sum" have to do with a stop and profit target? NOTHING. Oy!
I say clearer because it is useful to view an opening gap down as a big bear bar. For that is really what it is. That Gap down in my post #48 is really this big bear bar. So...now instead of the opening of today being a bull bar it is actually a larger bear bar (that includes the bull bar opening in the lower portion of the large bear bar. This gives a clearer immediate context and visually shows extreme weakness and such a big bear bar highlights the PB and almost certainly indicates a high probability of at least a second leg down and probably a measured move down.
The opposite would apply to a bull gap opening.
The opposite would apply to a bull gap opening.
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Now it looks clear. Short...short appears to be the direction. However the market can do anything. It could reverse here and fill the gap. That would be a lower probability. But if it were to then a measured move up we almost certainly happen. Anytime a lower probability event happens then expect a bigger move. Lower probability...low risk...= bigger reward.
Ok now we have looked at the immediate context and seen the opening gap down as a big bear bar. That clarifies the weakness and gives us more confidence to short. But can we get even more PA (not indicator) confirmation by looking at the larger context? We will do that in my next post.
Ok now we have looked at the immediate context and seen the opening gap down as a big bear bar. That clarifies the weakness and gives us more confidence to short. But can we get even more PA (not indicator) confirmation by looking at the larger context? We will do that in my next post.
but always keep in mind that all breakout from a range eventually fail so while short is the immediate action, i think this market will turn in the next 5-10 bars and test or even break the high....
why because a range indicates that the majority agrees that is the price and this fast moves makes it look relatively cheap
So what happened in the larger context? What is the larger context of the chart posted in my post #48?
Ok here is the larger context. Big long range to the left. Then we see a BO of that range that formed in the overnight globex session. That Bo then morphed into a smaller tighter range which in turned evolved into a larger range via a second BO of that tighter range.now the space between the top two red lines is the Gap down open on the chart in post #48. The open is highlighted in yellow. You can compare this with the open open in post #48. This larger context shows clearly that in the overnight session it was weakness all night. Stair stepping ranges and south in direction. So, the larger context also gives confirmation of more weakness. Markets have inertia and tend to continue doing the same thing for a while. So by the open of RTH ‘s (between the top two red lines) is was more probable that the trend down would continue at least for a bit more. And probably a measured move. You can see it made that measured move (bottom red line) before any PB after the RTH’s open. This is market inertia and it takes some hefty institutional buying to reverse this.
So what happens after that last PB on the chart. Did we get another measured move down or did it reverse? We will see what happened as I post some more charts of 60, 30,15, 10, 5, 1 minute charts of the previous set of TF charts I posted earlier in this thread for todays PA.
Finally, lets look at indicator confirmation. The two MA’s. All during the overnight session price would trade up to or just thru the 20 EMA then break south again. On the 89 SMA price for the most part stayed under that MA. That MA is useful for measuring the intermediate trend. Normally when price is below it and trending down best to look for shorting opportunities and entries.
So conclusions: the Gap down of the open in post #48 indicates weakness right off the bat right after the RTH’s open. By visualizing this Gap as a BIG bear bar then extreme weakness is highlighted and shows forth the high probability of a second leg down and perhaps even a measured move down, or even more. Then larger context confirms weakness with new southernly ranges forming and evolving in the overnight session.
Finally, the MA’s indicate weakness. Therefore this was a good short. I hope this is useful info to someone who is endevouring to learn how to read price action.
I will post the series of charts next to see what happened in each TF.
Ok here is the larger context. Big long range to the left. Then we see a BO of that range that formed in the overnight globex session. That Bo then morphed into a smaller tighter range which in turned evolved into a larger range via a second BO of that tighter range.now the space between the top two red lines is the Gap down open on the chart in post #48. The open is highlighted in yellow. You can compare this with the open open in post #48. This larger context shows clearly that in the overnight session it was weakness all night. Stair stepping ranges and south in direction. So, the larger context also gives confirmation of more weakness. Markets have inertia and tend to continue doing the same thing for a while. So by the open of RTH ‘s (between the top two red lines) is was more probable that the trend down would continue at least for a bit more. And probably a measured move. You can see it made that measured move (bottom red line) before any PB after the RTH’s open. This is market inertia and it takes some hefty institutional buying to reverse this.
So what happens after that last PB on the chart. Did we get another measured move down or did it reverse? We will see what happened as I post some more charts of 60, 30,15, 10, 5, 1 minute charts of the previous set of TF charts I posted earlier in this thread for todays PA.
Finally, lets look at indicator confirmation. The two MA’s. All during the overnight session price would trade up to or just thru the 20 EMA then break south again. On the 89 SMA price for the most part stayed under that MA. That MA is useful for measuring the intermediate trend. Normally when price is below it and trending down best to look for shorting opportunities and entries.
So conclusions: the Gap down of the open in post #48 indicates weakness right off the bat right after the RTH’s open. By visualizing this Gap as a BIG bear bar then extreme weakness is highlighted and shows forth the high probability of a second leg down and perhaps even a measured move down, or even more. Then larger context confirms weakness with new southernly ranges forming and evolving in the overnight session.
Finally, the MA’s indicate weakness. Therefore this was a good short. I hope this is useful info to someone who is endevouring to learn how to read price action.
I will post the series of charts next to see what happened in each TF.
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Of course it could turn but the point is do we take advantage of the weakness so highlighted now. To me the screaming “get short.” A big bear bar then a PB within a larger context of weakness indicates to me probable continuation of the southerly trend. As it turned out the market kept going south and not only had a measured move but even went further south. We will see that in my series TF’s post coming up soon.
A few reasons why traders fail.
1) No trading plan at all. Buy on a whim or hearsay. No specific entry ans exit points.
2) No emotional control, or what you call tilting in poker sense. After which they might gamble to avenge losses. Or failure to stick to a plan.
3) Failing to cut losses. Live to die another day. 5-10% loss is better than 90% loss.
4) No risk management and over leveraging.
1) No trading plan at all. Buy on a whim or hearsay. No specific entry ans exit points.
2) No emotional control, or what you call tilting in poker sense. After which they might gamble to avenge losses. Or failure to stick to a plan.
3) Failing to cut losses. Live to die another day. 5-10% loss is better than 90% loss.
4) No risk management and over leveraging.