Why do traders fail?

volpri said:
Remember you get a BO or spike that has no PB’s (a pb being defined as a low that goes below the low of the prev bar). That spike eventually transistions into a channel. That (the channel)is pretty easy to identify because that is when the pb’s start.
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yes good stuff....fading the spike as i have done many hundreds of times is painful!
 
volpri said:
Remember you get a BO or spike that has no PB’s (a pb being defined as a low that goes below the low of the prev bar). That spike eventually transistions into a channel. That (the channel)is pretty easy to identify because that is when the pb’s start. As the channels moves higher or lower (depending if bear or bull) it eventually starts getting some sideways movement..DT’s...triple tops...DB’s..triple bottoms etc then you are in the beginning of a range. Once i see 13 to 20 bars of sideways to slight down or sideways to slight up moves I am starting to think this is acting more like a range and not a PB in the form of a bear or bull flag on the TF I am seeing this PA occur. Once it reaches 20 bars of such movement I am calling it a range. Once it becomes a range it is easy to see it actually started in the last part of the channel phase. But until it proves out to be a range it can appear to be a flag in a trend.

Now once it shows to be a range the the tactic is shorting at the 1/3 top and going long at the 1/3 bottom until the whole process repeats with a successful BO or spike down or up out of the range. I will average down in ranges. For instance, price gets close to the top 1/3 i will begin shorting. If it keeps going up I will add to my losing position. Same on the bottom end of the range. Why would i do this as it is breaking what many consider a cardinal rule in trading i.e. “never average down”. I do it because the odds favor price will trade right back into the range. When it doesn’t and a successful BO occurs and I now really have a losing position then i will dump it and double in the direction of the BO OR I will bump up to a incremental larger time frame (maybe 15 min or 30 min to check and see if the BO in the smaller TF ( 5 min) is just a bull or bear leg in the larger TF range. If I calculate that I can hold my losing position (on the smaller TF) and just keep averaging down based on the higher TF range and all is with my risk levels then i may choose to do that knowing that price when it reaches the top or bottom of the larger TF will probably reverse back down i to the range of the higher TF.

Another thing to consider. What is a flag on say a 5 minute TF is probably a range on a 1 min time frame and can be traded as such if one is nimble and can make quick decisions. Or what is a flag on a 15 min range is probably a range on a 5 min. And the flags on the larger TF can actually just be a pb in that TF that will lead to another leg in that TF that is found to be within a range of that larger TF.

Consider this: channels are just slanted ranges. As such they can be shorted at the top and traded long at the bottom. And also averaged down...About 70% of the time BO’s of a channel fail and price goes right back into the channel. Pretty goods odds eh? Eventually, a BO will succeed and if a trader finds he is on the losing end dump it and double in the direction of the BO OR as in ranges bump up to an incremental larger TF and observe what it there. Is price in a range and the channel on the smaller TF is just a leg in the larger time frame and holding and even adding to ones losing position still within ones risk level?

Finally, remember this: all bull channels are bear flags on a larger TF and the odds favor bear flags evolving into a BO south. All bear channels are bull flags on a larger TF and odds favor the BO being north!

Read all this again and think about it!

Now the crazy part. Markets are always, at all times, in a BO...a range...a channel. On some time frame. It is a matter of knowing how to trade those market phases within ones risk level and how to identify those phases. And of course the deeper pockets one has one can trade the higher TF’s and average down more.

Averaging down certainly has to be within ones financial capability and done on a TF one can afford to trade.
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brilliant stuff.....what experts write in hundreds of pages you have done in a few lines...am saving this...THIS IS ALL YOU NEED TO TRADE...Brooks wrote 3 books saying the same thing!!!!!!!
thanks for this post...you have a big heart!!!!!!!!!!
 
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CSEtrader said:
So nice to see you here again, dear God!
Thank you.
Well, truth, but sadly I do believe that for now fraudulent practise of not placing trades to the exchanges are still be very large. This may also explain why so many were aggressive even here, on my my thread - they are money managers or employee, enjoying fruits from this illegal luck of balance.
Their time is over, the machine is just slow .
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In India,once a trade is confirmed by the broker, you may check online with the exchange and see if your trade was actually executed in the exchange records....i am not sure this can be done in others countries but you can check:if that is true you can even now get proof of fraud by checking with the exchange
 
padutrader said:
brilliant stuff.....what experts write in hundreds of pages you have done in a few lines...am saving this...THIS IS ALL YOU NEED TO TRADE...Brooks wrote 3 books saying the same thing!!!!!!!
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If u like what he wrote, you should rewrite it in your words, to make sure you understand it.

And then of course do your own research and make your own observations.
 
Most trader fail because of a couple of things but the major ones in my opinion are as follows:
  • Emotions
Many traders especially the fresh ones are normally affected by emotions whenever they get into particular trades. For example, they feel great when the market is favoring them but when the market turn and all the see is negatives, they start panicking. Some of them even get out of trades that might have been profitable otherwise.
  • Greed
Most traders think of trading as an easier way to join the millionaires club. They want to get rich overnight, most of them will risk more than what they are supposed to risk per trade. Sometimes when their daily targeted profits have been hit they still want to make more and since market is unpredictable things go against them very fast and once they have lost a certain percentage of their portfolio, panic kicks in and they end up gambling now instead of trading.

  • Not relying on the trading systems.
The rule is always stick to your system no matter what, but most people will only stick to their systems when it's profitable only. The moment it starts losing money, the jump on to another system.
 
themickey said:
Why do you say this? You must know not to predict, if I knew 100% the market would fall in one week, why go short? The market can rise considerably prior.
The bull will end when it ends, no need to know when, just keep doing what can be done with the information directly ahead.
You are the captain of your own ship, don't follow me, be led and follow your own footsteps.
Implant good thoughts and good results will follow.
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Mickey are you saying we can create our reality and drive the market with our thoughts? Or our thinking drives us to align ourselves with what the market is doing? That success in the markets or success in anything else is connected to our thoughts? The power of thoughts? Stinkin thinking leads to stinkin results? Metaphysical theory?
 
Relationship between TF's Es Right after opening 3/22/2019

5 min chart... PB in form of a Flag likely trend continuation
es 5.GIF


what does it look like on 1 min...a bear channel likely BO of channel ?.... south
es1 min.GIF

10 min chart..
es 10 min.GIF

15 min chart ...PB
es15m.GIF



30 min chart...pause no PB yet
es 30 min.GIF

1 hour chart..pause no PB yet
es 1hour.GIF

OK so starting general context. Gap down opening. OK with 5 min chart we see gap down..followed by two bull bars then a bear bar cannot close gap. weakness ,likely headed south.

On 1 minute gap down opening 4 bull bars sideways motion triple top BO south of range ..then bear channel..likely resolution ..BO south of channel for at least 2 legs trend cont, that is. tactic...average down during channel ..wait for break south. If it doesn't but does opposite exit double up and reverse. odds favor a BO of bear channel south.

10 min Gap down followed by bull bar ..cannot close gap..then big bear bar..weakness..followed by PB in form of some sideways action ..likely resolution = trend continuation ...short on lower low or short at end of bear bar and add onto position during PB

15 Gap down..followed by bull bar..cannot close gap..followed by two big bear bars..gotta be short...followed by PB likely resolution ...trend continuation..short on lower low after PB or short after close of either big bear bar. Just get short! Can add on during PB..weakness...weakness!

30 min Gap down Spike closing on low ..Pause..likely resolution could go either way but strong gap down makes odds lean towards trend continuation..plus spike closing on low ..more downside likely ..so short..gotta take a chance and get short.

1 hour Gap down spike closing near low no PB yet so has not entered a channel ..just a pause at this point but could reverse but unlikely. likely resolution trend continuation into a channel with PB's

I gotta run. Just watch and see what happens after all this. Can't watch anymore. other things to do.
 
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