Why do I see "Trends" in Randomly Generated Data?

Quote from Thunderdog:

Impressive. Thank you.

A few other questions just came to this idle mind. What is a "game?" I thought it meant trade. Is a game an expected move? Also, do you ever average down? Average up? Scale in? Scale out?
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Game is a sequence of intermediate trades overall resulting in the positive outcome of the game. Although in one game there might be 5 loosing trades and one win, overall the game might be still positive. The game is over when either its length or the profit expectations are met.
 
Quote from MAESTRO:

Also, quality of data and the connection speed are the major factors.
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Thank you.

How long does a game last? Do you hold positions for days or weeks or all trading high frequency?

A few years ago you mentioned that you (I believe) could identify turns better than amplitude of the move. How have you done improving the ability to anticipate amplitude? Or is it just impossible (at this time with available data)?
 
Quote from ramora:

...A few years ago you mentioned that you (I believe) could identify turns better than amplitude of the move. How have you done improving the ability to anticipate amplitude? Or is it just impossible (at this time with available data)?
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Good question, and I am interested to read MAESTRO's response. Whereas I'm actually quite pleased with my own ability to call the occasional turn, amplitude has always been a grab bag for me. I don't see it changing for me, and I am wondering how MAESTRO is doing in this regard on Mount Olympia.
 
Quote from ramora:

Thank you.

How long does a game last? Do you hold positions for days or weeks or all trading high frequency?

A few years ago you mentioned that you (I believe) could identify turns better than amplitude of the move. How have you done improving the ability to anticipate amplitude? Or is it just impossible (at this time with available data)?
More...

The algorithm has changed quite a bit in the last two years. I was supervising the work from the hospital bed so it is much less glorious then it was before :D . The game usually lasts about 2 hours. We do not hold positions overnight any more. We play around 200 simultaneous games a day. Each game on average has 2.8 trades in it and it could go as high as 30 trades and as low as 1 trade (meaning, of course the round trip = 2 trades).
 
Quote from Thunderdog:

Good question, and I am interested to read MAESTRO's response. Whereas I'm actually quite pleased with my own ability to call the occasional turn, amplitude has always been a grab bag for me. I don't see it changing for me, and I am wondering how MAESTRO is doing in this regard on Mount Olympia.
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Don't care about them anymore. No need! The game took care of it. No prediction, anticipation, prognoses of any kind! We just playing 200 poker games with the markets a day.
 
Quote from MAESTRO:

Don't care about them anymore. No need! The game took care of it. No prediction, anticipation, prognoses of any kind! We just playing 200 poker games with the markets a day.
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Fair enough. Then we are on side in this regard as well. The only question remaining is whether lab coats are essential attire in your place of business and, if so, whether they provide a discernible edge?
:D
 
BTW, today 92% of games won and majority of them had only one trade (round trip). 95% of the game is over by now. We like days like today very much! Thank you Mr. Bernanke, keep on talking! :D
 
Quote from Thunderdog:

Fair enough. Then we are on side in this regard as well. The only question remaining is whether lab coats are essential attire in your place of business and, if so, whether they provide a discernible edge?
:D
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I personally like the lab coats with big pockets so I could have my smokes, lighters and other important scientific equipment with me at all times! :D
 
Quote from bmferguson:

Aren't most random number generators really pseudo-random number generators (i.e.) with a certain amount of serial correlation?
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Yes, it's true. And your point is .... ?
 
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