Why do i keep buying at the wrong time?

[PPC]

Disagree about first paragraph, rest too long.

Many times open/close are, equally - if not more so - as important as high/low values which candles accentuate.

It is important to you because you chose to analyze the market through an arbitrary timeframe, say for example H1 candle that you perceive as important to you.

However other market participants make decisions based on all other kinds of different timeframes, or tick charts, volume charts, or indicator values (also based on all kinds of different timeframes), and some investors including large institutions simply buy/sell stocks based on valuations or portfolio re-balancing and not based on where certain candle opens or closes on certain timeframe. Therefore, your “disagreement” actually confirmed exactly what I posted earlier.

BTW, it’s a good thing that traders disagree on things because if all traders would agree on everything, then the markets would not move much.

 

[SunTrader]

It is important to you because you chose to analyze the market through an arbitrary timeframe, say for example H1 candle that you perceive as important to you.

However other market participants make decisions based on all other kinds of different timeframes, or tick charts, volume charts, or indicator values (also based on all kinds of different timeframes), and some investors including large institutions simply buy/sell stocks based on valuations or portfolio re-balancing and not based on where certain candle opens or closes on certain timeframe. Therefore, your “disagreement” actually confirmed exactly what I posted earlier.

BTW, it’s a good thing that traders disagree on things because if all traders would agree on everything, then the markets would not move much.

Exactly the opposite open and close times (and their prices) are fixed.

Arbitrary is often where, mostly losers, are filled long at high wicks and shorts at low wicks.

Plainly obvious to me which is real resistance for NQ 30 min chart attached:-

 

[Onra]

Exactly the opposite open and close times (and their prices) are fixed.

you mean fixed as in more important than H's & L's,
or determined beforehand?
Thanks.

 

[SunTrader]

you mean fixed as in more important than H's & L's,
or determined beforehand?
Thanks.

Sometimes, not always, more important.

Fixed as in the open is the open, same for close. Highs and lows can always go higher or lower

 

[PPC]

Exactly the opposite open and close times (and their prices) are fixed.

Arbitrary is often where, mostly losers, are filled long at high wicks and shorts at low wicks.

Plainly obvious to me which is real resistance for NQ 30 min chart attached:-

View attachment 342410

What you call a plainly obvious resistance on your chart to me looks like a minor irrelevant swing points formed during illiquid pre-market "chopfest" when the equity (cash) markets are closed. Therefore, whatever order flow there was at those swing points that you chose (at 3:00am and at 9:00am) won’t have much meaning once the cash market opens because during the equity trading hours it’s the cash market (stocks) that dictates the value of index futures derivatives, and not the other way around.

In addition, sometimes when large institutions (not small hedge funds) plan to buy (basket of) stocks, they intentionally will jiggle the futures during the premarket and then even after the market opens they’ll continue to drive the market down to intentionally trigger further selling.

Then say between 15mins to 90mins after the market opens, the same large institution might step in and start buying at the discounted prices, and intentionally causing a 1rts-hour reversal and trapping the retail traders.

That’s another reason why context is important, and why order flow imbalances around various S/Rs need to be taken into consideration vs just making decisions on candlesticks/bars especially those outside of market hours

That’s my 0.02, we all trade our own beliefs.

 

[SunTrader]

What you call a plainly obvious resistance on your chart to me looks like a minor irrelevant swing points formed during illiquid pre-market "chopfest" when the equity (cash) markets are closed. Therefore, whatever order flow there was at those swing points that you chose (at 3:00am and at 9:00am) won’t have much meaning once the cash market opens because during the equity trading hours it’s the cash market (stocks) that dictates the value of index futures derivatives, and not the other way around.

In addition, sometimes when large institutions (not small hedge funds) plan to buy (basket of) stocks, they intentionally will jiggle the futures during the premarket and then even after the market opens they’ll continue to drive the market down to intentionally trigger further selling.

Then say between 15mins to 90mins after the market opens, the same large institution might step in and start buying at the discounted prices, and intentionally causing a 1rts-hour reversal and trapping the retail traders.

That’s another reason why context is important, and why order flow imbalances around various S/Rs need to be taken into consideration vs just making decisions on candlesticks/bars especially those outside of market hours

That’s my 0.02, we all trade our own beliefs.

Of course we all do. But I also trade what I believe the market believes.

And the market at that time (obviously support and resistance don't last forever) believed/respected the first horiz line drawn off high close (to that point), not the second drawn off the wicks as shown by twice trading above but closing (that word again) below right before RTH session. So yes what happens during night session sometimes affects the day session.

 

[murray t turtle]

Just catching up with the Sat Morning most viewed new threads and have this point to make. You have a moving average on your chart so that means something to you. On thing that might help is never place a trade when the MA is moving sideways and cutting through the price bars like it was doing when you "bought at the wrong time".

%%
Good help;
not sure it would help, if its a $1.42 penny stock\$1.42 away from bankruptcy.
Good principle on good stocks or ETFs.

 

[oshjdf]

I assume you have -ve expectancy. I will comment generally, not specific to your case, based on my experience developing both trend following & mean reversion.

There are only 2 problems with entry and when you solve these, the expectancy will become +ve. After that, it's only a matter of changing the methodology of identifying direction, exit profit/loss and trailing to improve the +ve expectancy (be careful of curve fitting).

Entry too early and too late (overbought/oversold~extended move). It sounds simple but hard to solve.

 

[SunTrader]

Simple to solve for overbought/oversold. Ignore those terms because they are meaningless mumbo-jumbo.

If I buy something for $100, turn around and sell it for $200 do I care if someone claimed it was overbought @ $200?

Or the person who bought it from me @ $200 who then sold it @ $300 when it was even more "overbought"?

Same with over/under valued. Value is what someone is willing to pay for something someone else has.

 

[mute9003]

What self sabotage looks like...
Had 4 green days where i traded properly all week.
Woke up on friday thinking. One more day and i will have a green week.
Then i buy these two stocks
TELL bought as flyby for no reason. It dropped like a rock the next day. Still dont know why i bought it.
KITT tried to trade. was planning to exit with a small loss if didnt go my way.
should have sold where i planned to sell
Shoulda sold at 20 dollar loss when i saw that it was not moving up anymore
Shoulda sold when it hit my break even price multiple times giving me a chance to exit.
made same mistake that cost me in the past many times.
What it feels like for those who never had to deal with self sabotage.
You literally black out in a way.
I froze every time i had a chance to exit at break even or a small loss.
Or in other words you get locked out of your own brain.
While it tries to correct the events to allign with the self sabotage belief that its operating under.
Extremely shit feeling to be a passive observer of events and being locked out of your own mind.
Watching yourself make a mistake while your logical mind is processing it at the same time completely aware that whats happening is a mistake and you shouldnt do it.

can be confused with fomo. But its a bit different. Fomo feels different i have control i just chose to take certain stupid actions and there is no internal resistance of blackout