Why do 5% of Traders Win?
- Thread starter oldtime
- Start date
For fork sakes, would you please shutup??!!! I consider this whole ignore option to be childish, but in your case, you're nothing but spam.
[You are my first ignore]
Bhardy is not trading futures. I don't understand why this is hard to comprehend. He uses the UK arm of fxcm, and they let their users trade gold and oil for miniscule amounts. It isn't something I would do as I assume you are trading against fxcm in those markets. Any good, consistently profitable SCALPER can do what NoDoji does. She doesn't consider herself special either. Drop the ego.
Exactly, but no you aren't trading against FXCM.
Lucias,
If it is true that a standard oil contract pays, $10 per 1cent change, then the notional value of an oil contract is $10 X 100 X Current price of oil. Atleast, that's how I chose to think about. I really only care about the cost/benefit per unit change.
About $109, 084 if I can use my CFD as reference price.
Yes, I understand that. The $10/unit (getting closer to 9$, now) change results as a consequence of the 1.000 barrels. 1000 barrels/Price per barrel. Or is it reasonable to think about it in this way?
Lucias, I used the gold comparison for the following reason.
Though 1 contract of oil may be 1000 barrels, 1 contract of gold for me is only 1 ounce of gold.
In terms of unit change, the contrast is this:
$10/$.01 change of oil, VS $1/$1 change of price of gold.
I am telling you, that I, with my very limited experience, can earn $15/day trading 1 gold contract. Assume 240 trading days in a year. Thats $3600. So trading 1 contract, I can generate the equivalent of 2 ounces of gold in one year.
So, if I can generate that much, why do you believe that NoD can't generate the equivalent of 900 barrels, trading 1000 barrel contracts at a time?
You were suggesting that the most she should be able to generate should be between 200 and 300 barrels. So, extending that logic, you are telling me that I can only generate 20 to 30% of an ounce of gold???
Though 1 contract of oil may be 1000 barrels, 1 contract of gold for me is only 1 ounce of gold.
In terms of unit change, the contrast is this:
$10/$.01 change of oil, VS $1/$1 change of price of gold.
I am telling you, that I, with my very limited experience, can earn $15/day trading 1 gold contract. Assume 240 trading days in a year. Thats $3600. So trading 1 contract, I can generate the equivalent of 2 ounces of gold in one year.
So, if I can generate that much, why do you believe that NoD can't generate the equivalent of 900 barrels, trading 1000 barrel contracts at a time?
You were suggesting that the most she should be able to generate should be between 200 and 300 barrels. So, extending that logic, you are telling me that I can only generate 20 to 30% of an ounce of gold???
Here is an interesting article from prestige school University of California, Berkeley (HIGHER EDUCATION) did a study traders just lose.
http://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/odean/papers/Day Traders/Day Trading Skill 110523.pdf
On average, individual investors lose money from trading. Barber and Odean
(2000) document that the majority of losses incurred at one large discount broker in the
United States can be traced to trading costs. However, trading costs are not the whole
story. On average, individual investors have perverse security selection abilities; they buy
stocks that earn subpar returns and sell stocks that earn strong returns (Odean (1999)). In
aggregate, the losses of individuals are material. Barber, Lee, Liu, and Odean (BLLO,
2009), using complete transaction data for the Taiwan market from 1995 to 1999,
document that the aggregate losses of individual investors exceed two percent of annual
Gross Domestic Product in Taiwan.
Recent
Recent research documents that a host of variables (e.g., IQ, cognitive abilities,
geography, portfolio concentration, age, and past performance) reliably predict crosssectional
variation in performance.1 But even the most skilled stock pickers in these
studies are unable to deliver a return that covers a reasonable accounting for transaction
costs. Thus, it remains an open question whether some individual investors can profit
from speculative trading.
http://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/odean/papers/Day Traders/Day Trading Skill 110523.pdf
On average, individual investors lose money from trading. Barber and Odean
(2000) document that the majority of losses incurred at one large discount broker in the
United States can be traced to trading costs. However, trading costs are not the whole
story. On average, individual investors have perverse security selection abilities; they buy
stocks that earn subpar returns and sell stocks that earn strong returns (Odean (1999)). In
aggregate, the losses of individuals are material. Barber, Lee, Liu, and Odean (BLLO,
2009), using complete transaction data for the Taiwan market from 1995 to 1999,
document that the aggregate losses of individual investors exceed two percent of annual
Gross Domestic Product in Taiwan.
Recent
Recent research documents that a host of variables (e.g., IQ, cognitive abilities,
geography, portfolio concentration, age, and past performance) reliably predict crosssectional
variation in performance.1 But even the most skilled stock pickers in these
studies are unable to deliver a return that covers a reasonable accounting for transaction
costs. Thus, it remains an open question whether some individual investors can profit
from speculative trading.