Why do 5% of Traders Win?

Quote from emg:

Here is an interesting article from prestige school University of California, Berkeley (HIGHER EDUCATION) did a study traders just lose.


http://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/odean/papers/Day Traders/Day Trading Skill 110523.pdf



Recent research documents that a host of variables (e.g., IQ, cognitive abilities,
geography, portfolio concentration, age, and past performance) reliably predict crosssectional
variation in performance.1 But even the most skilled stock pickers in these
studies are unable to deliver a return that covers a reasonable accounting for transaction
costs. Thus, it remains an open question whether some individual investors can profit
from speculative trading.

hmm, so are you trading your slogan to:

100% of traders lose, they just lose!!
 
Quote from emg:

Here is an interesting article from prestige school University of California, Berkeley (HIGHER EDUCATION) did a study traders just lose.


http://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/odean/papers/Day Traders/Day Trading Skill 110523.pdf




On average, individual investors lose money from trading. Barber and Odean
(2000) document that the majority of losses incurred at one large discount broker in the
United States can be traced to trading costs. However, trading costs are not the whole
story. On average, individual investors have perverse security selection abilities; they buy
stocks that earn subpar returns and sell stocks that earn strong returns (Odean (1999)). In
aggregate, the losses of individuals are material. Barber, Lee, Liu, and Odean (BLLO,
2009), using complete transaction data for the Taiwan market from 1995 to 1999,
document that the aggregate losses of individual investors exceed two percent of annual
Gross Domestic Product in Taiwan.
Recent



Recent research documents that a host of variables (e.g., IQ, cognitive abilities,
geography, portfolio concentration, age, and past performance) reliably predict crosssectional
variation in performance.1 But even the most skilled stock pickers in these
studies are unable to deliver a return that covers a reasonable accounting for transaction
costs. Thus, it remains an open question whether some individual investors can profit
from speculative trading.



I always believe that paying higher commisison to your broker, which I' am, for getting the best service will help u trade successful. Unfortunately, I notice many small traders in ET haggle lower commission which i think ridiculous

http://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/odean/papers/Day Traders/Day Trading Skill 110523.pdf

Finally, day traders incur
substantial trading costs and receive quick feedback about their trading ability. It is
among this group that we are most likely to identify persistently good traders.



another quote from the article:

Two points are worth emphasizing in these results. First, the spread in returns
between the top and bottom performing investors at 67 bps per day is enormous when
compared to most other studies of cross-sectional ability in investor performance. For
example, using data from Finland, Grinblatt, Keloharju, and Linnainmaa (2010)
document that the buys of high IQ investors outperform those of low IQ investors by 4.4
bps per day in the days immediately following the purchase. Using data from a large U.S.
discount broker,





HIGHER EDUCATION is the key to become a successful trader.

Higher Education
 
Quote from emg:



HIGHER EDUCATION is the key to become a successful trader.

Higher Education


And this my friends is EXACTLY WHY LONG TERM CAPITAL MANAGEMENT FAILED.


And now, its certainly time to ignore...there is certainly someone that forgot all about that little incident.
 
Quote from trhudson:


And this my friends is EXACTLY WHY LONG TERM CAPITAL MANAGEMENT FAILED.


And now, its certainly time to ignore...there is certainly someone that forgot all about that little incident.


one firm went down. another firm goes up. Those that work at LTCM are working at another firm (HFT). They are not dumb. They are higher educated to know how to work the system.


More than 90% of small traders lose. They just lose!


Don't forget to put me on your ignore list.
 
CL is $10/.01 move. The contract offers at least 10 tradable price swings a day on a 5-min chart, significantly more on a 1-min chart of you're a 10-tick scalper.

I watched a micro scalper trade it several days in a row, simply extracting money from it like an ATM machine every few minutes.

My friend and I developed the particular price action trading plan that I currently use as my core plan. He and I both extract at least $400/contract a day out of it. This is a super duper conservative profit. There are days (like today) when CL basically spits money at anyone who can stay on the right side of the intraday trending move and who takes the time to draw trend lines and parallel channels or calculate measured moves.

I've been working with a couple other CL traders, one puts away her $500/day loot regularly, the other has been able to do the same in a sim account and is about to go live.

So here are five small retail traders demonstrating the viability of averaging $400 daily day trading a single futures contract, which requires less than $10,000 to do.

There are big crude oil speculators and hedgers out there and when they get a notion to trade, price MOVES. Study the price footprints that precede wide price swings, look for entry signals you're comfortable with (I use stop orders), and learn to go with the flow. You'll become one of the 5% winners.
 
Quote from Lucias:

Are you an idiot or just act like one? The person making the outrageous claims is responsible for proving their claims


Here's some proof for you Lucias. This is what I can do in a day starting with a very small balance of $156. Now scale that up to a starting balance of $10,000. Even if I blew out a few $10,000 accounts over a period of one year, I'd still be WAY ahead.

I should qualify that I had two gold contract left over from the day before that had me at -$4.04 as of market close at 5pm EST. That's why you see the rollover fee.
 

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Quote from emg:

one firm went down. another firm goes up. Those that work at LTCM are working at another firm (HFT). They are not dumb. They are higher educated to know how to work the system.


More than 90% of small traders lose. They just lose!


Don't forget to put me on your ignore list.

Trouble is that the ignore list doesn't really work. I still get email alerts. ET needs to create an "asshole" list so that the emails are tagged with "asshole". In this way, I can filter the email alerts into the junk box.

Clicking on the email alert and finding nothing is more annoying than simply not reading your message. ET, please fix this.
 
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